• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Holy hell !!!!!
3431a94dd79de693c0a6bab187575a79.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I would rather have 1 large ice storm 1-3” with just cold rain Asheville to GSP. Gridlock Charlotte to Raleigh to Boone.
 
CADEffect said:
Would you guys rather have multiple threats this winter or one big storm this winter area wide. With the correct blocking pattern let’s hope it lasts till April.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Multiple threats: Means more cold air, more days with wintery precip falling, and more days of tracking a storms.
 
I can't think of the last time I had multiple significant events in one winter.
 
Is there anything we can start looking at now to give us an idea of how the Winter pattern might be shaping up? I see HM had tweeted about seeing a 5 to 8 week time frame of unrelenting cold for the east but didn't go into much detail in regards.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Is there anything we can start looking at now to give us an idea of how the Winter pattern might be shaping up? I see HM had tweeted about seeing a 5 to 8 week time frame of unrelenting cold for the east but didn't go into much detail in regards.
Click to expand...

Most page owners don’t start looking until mid to late October


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sleet City USA said:
I can't think of the last time I had multiple significant events in one winter.
Click to expand...
Since about 2010 that I can remember here. Light ice in mid December, Christmas Day snow, January 9-10, 2011 snowstorm, and 1-1.5 inches of snow in February right before Valentines Day. *sighs* I long for the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.? I rather have winters like that with at least one wintry event every month from DJF, possibly March as a bonus instead of one big one. At the same time however I kinda want the big one because Atlanta hasn’t had a double digit snowfall in nearly 80 years (1940) when my grandmother was born. Neither have we had a 1 footer+ at least not technically on record from the airport. Edit: I forgot we had a very brief period of sleet in mid November also.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Since about 2010 that I can remember here. Light ice in mid December, Christmas Day snow, January 9-10, 2011 snowstorm, and 1-1.5 inches of snow in February right before Valentines Day. *sighs* I long for the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.? I rather have winters like that with at least one wintry event every month from DJF, possibly March as a bonus instead of one big one. At the same time however I kinda want the big one because Atlanta hasn’t had a double digit snowfall in nearly 80 years (1940) when my grandmother was born. Neither have we had a 1 footer+ at least not technically on record from the airport. Edit: I forgot we had a very brief period of sleet in mid November also.
Click to expand...
Nashville never got a big snow per se that winter, but we had several 2 inch events. Dec 12, Christmas Day, January 11, and February 10 were all 2 inch snows, with a couple of 1/2 to 1 inch events in late January to boot. I definitely think I can live with that. :) Funny thing is I think I remember most winter forecasts for 2010-11 were for a warm winter.
 
If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, the QBO should be favorable this winter. If true, we can remove it from consideration as to which three-letter acronym will ruin it for us. ?
 
Storm5 said:
Holy hell !!!!!
3431a94dd79de693c0a6bab187575a79.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
One day I’d like to get about 80% of my yearly snowfall avg in one snow!! You’d think a 3” snowfall wouldn’t be that much to ask for!?
 
JB says their winter forecast is playing it safe, He's being conservative. But it looks better than his preliminary winter forecast.....

September 26, 2019

  • We expect colder (and snowier) weather later in the winter.
  • Our forecast is a conservative approach compared to some of the analogs.
nov__mar.png

Our snowfall forecast and heart of winter forecast have not changed. For temperatures this month, we wanted to show you the longer term 5-month forecast (above). As a reminder, here is what the snowfall forecast looks like:

Winter_2019_20_Snowfall(1).png
 
metwannabe said:
Our goats are already starting to grow thicker fur, I don't care what analogs show or what the index of the day shows.... dang it I'm going with the goats. Cold air is just around the corner!
Click to expand...
Wonder if there is any scientific backing to this i.e. thicker fur before cold weather sets in? Regardless, I’m also going with the Goat solution. Winter is coming!
 
NWMSGuy said:
Wonder if there is any scientific backing to this i.e. thicker fur before cold weather sets in? Regardless, I’m also going with the Goat solution. Winter is coming!
Click to expand...
who knows Lol but they've got to be as accurate as any NAO, QBO, SOI, PNA, IOD, SOB, WTH out there :D
 
The problem with a winter forecast is there are too many factors to calculate. There are a lot of smart people (much more knowledgeable than me) who post ideas of why the winter will be cold, warm, or snowy. Really it's like a math calculation; you give 10 points for esno, times it by 5 for PDO, times that by 5 for warm waters in the north Atlantic, times that by 10 points for Siberian snow cover, and so on and so on. But if you get one negative (-1) and your whole score could flips to negative. **One thing can kill SE winter weather chances....
 
FallsLake said:
The problem with a winter forecast is there are too many factors to calculate. There are a lot of smart people (much more knowledgeable than me) who post ideas of why the winter will be cold, warm, or snowy. Really it's like a math calculation; you give 10 points for esno, times it by 5 for PDO, times that by 5 for warm waters in the north Atlantic, times that by 10 points for Siberian snow cover, and so on and so on. But if you get one negative (-1) and your whole score could flips to negative. **One thing can kill SE winter weather chances....
Click to expand...

Just get rid of that pesky SER over the past few years and you’re have one to remember. Hoping that all this blocking lasts into next year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're setting ourselves up for a pretty classic weak-moderate modoki/CP NINO winter. The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) & positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) will act to reinforce any oncoming NINO. At least we have that going for us.

View attachment 24199
Click to expand...
I’ve seen a few statements here and there how last year was also a Modoki El Niño. How will this upcoming season differ from last winter if any?
 
NWMSGuy said:
I’ve seen a few statements here and there how last year was also a Modoki El Niño. How will this upcoming season differ from last winter if any?
Click to expand...

Last year was a pitiful excuse of a modoki El Niño it really never materialized in 3.4 if didn’t have the Indian Ocean temps where they are now which didn’t allow for a steady STJ.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top