Honestly, what we all know is that the SER will be at play one way or the other this winter. My official Winter forecast. ?
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
NWMSGuy
Member
Will be interesting to see where the Northeast Pacific Ridge will set up this year. Closer to the west coast or even further west?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I hope it’s not the panthers kicker=punt fail
winter is definitely not far, GFS picking up on a miller Bish type transfer next week, ofc it’s going to be all rain, but the setup is a reminder that summer isn’t here nomore, and we’re headed the right direction, very nice pattern for a miller B on the gfs ( again it’s the GFS so it’s probably wrong) with a transient ridge in the west and a nice trough/ULL swinging through that ends up getting trapped under the ridge, also a weak CAD with nice area of higher pressure over that low 
cd2play
Member
Someday the winters of the 1980s will be back. Someday.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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We won’t be here to see them, unless you pull a Ted Williams
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Miller B, also known as “rain”
tennessee storm
Member
Miller. A. Is we’re its at... lol
Not always, don’t forget about Roxboro
Miller As are rain these days too. What we need is cold high pressure!
NoSnowATL
Member
I fixed it for you.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Maybe for you in the E half of NC. When it rains for you, we get dumped on with snow. Miller Bs are hit or miss here for N GA.
NWMSGuy
Member
Ewwww. This to shall pass.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, at least it's snowing already out west.
RollTide18
Member
It was so warm last winter that the ULL’s only produced rain.
D
Deleted member 1449
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What’s the Midwest Snow Advance Index say?
Lol. First Siberia. Then the Rockies. Then the mountains of West Virginia. Then Maine. Then Roxboro. Then Houston Texas. Then Charleston SC. Then SE Wake County. Then Midlands SC. Then Upstate SC...it’s a slow but sure process
Step-down process. I've taken the liberty to quietly highlight your error above. Other than that small detail, it's pretty much spot on.
One thing we’ll hear this winter “CuTtErS WiLl HeLp BuIlD SnOwPaCK To OuR NoRtH” which half of a time is a excuse for our fails
Swap the Midlands with the Upstate and you have it. The Midlands gets less snow than Savannah anymore.
RollTide18
Member
My favorites (which I’ve also used):
“Models haven’t gotten a grasp of the cold air yet”
“Let’s wait until the system is fully onshore”
“It’s not in “insert short range model”’s wheelhouse yet”
And of course overreacting to the temperature being two degrees colder than forecast “we may be in for a surprise!”.
"It'll makes its own cold"
"CMC still shows 5 inches IMBY"
"NAM has got a killer ice storm in CAD regions"
/storm vanishes on every model "Still too far out to make a call"
Fountainguy97
Member
My absolute favorite is the nowcasting stuff. I can’t even count how many times I’ve seen people say “it’s warmer or colder than it’s supposed to be” or “the ULL or Vort is diving quicker” etc
hahaha what happens every time? Nothing.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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RAP still hammers my area!?????????
12k NAM gives me 4”, I don’t care what the other models say! ????
Fountainguy97
Member
“ThE 3k NaM iS sUpEr AcCuRaTe At ThIs StaGe. We HuG iT.” Yeah...ok ???
Yep, nothing even on 12/25/10, 1/28/14, 12/08/17. Yep, nothing.
Fountainguy97
Member
You got me. It does happen lol. It gets thrown around pretty much every storm though and rarely makes a legit impact.
I disagree, it always makes a legit impact, its just most of the time it ends up with the impact being bad.
That or some people expect too much difference too often. Although it does happen.
Fountainguy97
Member
We are on the same page. Just poor wording on my part!
Often it’s not as big of a difference people expect. Or people claim that temps are different or whatever but in reality it isn’t off much at all.
For those on the fringe lines it has and can be the difference between rain and snow for sure.
IMO it’s just an overly used “last hope” a lot of times. But certainly occurs and has merit
NCHighCountryWX
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BAM Official 2019-2020 Winter Forecast
Jon Miller is joined by Michael Clark of BAMWx.com to discuss BAM's Official Winter of 2019-2020 Forecast. Clark believes the United States could be in for a Top Eight to Top Twelve coldest winter.
The key a anomalous Pacific SST during a rate El Nino Modoki Pattern
2014/2015 1977/1978
Jon Miller is joined by Michael Clark of BAMWx.com to discuss BAM's Official Winter of 2019-2020 Forecast. Clark believes the United States could be in for a Top Eight to Top Twelve coldest winter.
The key a anomalous Pacific SST during a rate El Nino Modoki Pattern
2014/2015 1977/1978
77/78 - Had a couple of ice storms for NC in January. Snow up your way.
14/15 - Was back loaded. Nice snow late in February.
A warning about Clark and BAMwx: a lot of their focus in fall and winter is toward energy commodities. Like JB, they know that cold winter forecasts will significantly increase their clicks. Any firm that throws in 1977-8, one of the coldest US winters on record, as one of only two top analogs has a JB vibe to them imo and should be taken with a huge grain, especially in this day and age of global warming. Yes, weak Modoki El Niño’s have in the past been associated with very cold E US winters in some cases. But, then again, last winter also was a weak Modoki and seasonal models were extremely cold. Despite that, it as we know turned out to be one of the warmest SE winters on record! Now, seasonal models, which have been cold biased, are much warmer than last year averaged out.
From a comment I just read at a commodities board:
“ I believe BAM X was started with good intentions. Michael Clark learned quickly that bullish information will sell ten times the subscriptions. We call this on our farm the Sue Martin approach!”
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I thought Hank Hill was trying to sell propane or trying to get me to start selling it.
Nevertheless, we thought we were in for a wild winter last year with a modoki El Niño, but it never materialized. This year we are taking the same approach based on what? Indian Ocean. Last year it was .1 off off the Panama coast as water temps there were below normal. In many aspects the past three years long range climate models have just sucked. Going by the amount of snow cover in Eurasia seems like the best approach for now.
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Not sure what I think about the Siberian October snow cover increase theory. But there is more snow coverage this year compare to last (for October 9th 2018 & 2019):
Fountainguy97
Member
Biggest difference between this year and last is the QBO.
IMO it has a much larger impact on temps than we give it credit for.
general rule i have always followed is a falling QBO is cold and rising QBO is warm
From weatherops.
Obviously a lot of other factors but here are the last few winters.
2018-2019 was negative and trending positive
2017-2018 was Negative trending more negative (much cooler than 18-19)
2016-2017 was positive rising
The last cold winter of 2014-2015 was also negative going more negative
you can see the temp profiles align pretty well to the qbo maps!! Every winter the temp profile has aligned with that above map more or less.
Qbo IMO is a huge huge player for us.
hopefully we should see a falling Qbo this winter and is the main reason I’m hopeful for a cooler winter this year
For 2019-2020 here is the qbo progression so far: Jan-sept: 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25
positive and falling toward negative. Which according to the top image favors warm west and normal East. If qbo dives hard could favor a cold East.
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SnowNotHappen
Member
It's even worse in the Southern CSRA (Barnwell, Bamberg, Orangeburg, Allendale, southern and eastern parts of Aiken county too.) Almost never snow. We normally get ice or rain.
I am still not sure about this "indicator". I was pretty excited when it was first presented several years ago, but its immediate failure and the spin used to justify the failure made me feel like I was listening to the pitch of a snake oil salesman.
My instinct tells me that snow cover extent and advance over there are more the result of other factors, rather than a predictor of patterns to come. And while, when you see such and such occur over there (which may somewhat correlate with certain patterns over here under certain circumstances), in the end, its predictive ability is muted by other pattern drivers/influencers. It's just another ordinary card on the table, IMO.
I am less certain about the QBO. That's been the hot new little index over the past 5-10 years. There are a lot of mixed interpretations of it -- how it is trending or operating in conjunction with other variables. Its impacts, regarding temperatures in the US, seem to be highly dependent upon other correlations, which make it difficult for me to standardize a way to use it.
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When I made the above post, I had not yet watched the 27 minute video. I had just seen NCHighCountry’s reference that Clark had made to 1977-8 and 2014-5 as well a potential top 10ish cold winter. But after watching the video, Clark actually significantly downplays 1977-8 because as he put it it was from a much colder era before climate change. So, he actually doesn’t weigh in 1977-8 in his forecast but just mentions it as a cold severe outlier analog. His DJF is actually slightly warmer than normal in the SE as a whole (which is actually much colder than last winter), which is way more believable than 1977-8, which was the 2nd coldest winter in ATL and much of the SE US on record. Also, his forecast is nowhere near a top 10 cold winter for the US as a whole even though it is cold in the upper Midwest to NE. He pretty much just said that a top 10 cold is not out of the realm of possibilities.
I will have to start to watch the QBO more closely in the coming years. As Rain Cold mention he’s been watching it for 5-10 years and has more of an opinion then I.
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