• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Even if we have a very warm winter, but if we can get one winter storm, i am content. That has always been my philosophy. Global warming is really something not to overlook. I just hope noone says the coldest on record like people did last winter, which didn't happen.
 
Golf7575 said:
Hi guys. In all seriousness, does anyone know what type of pattern we need to take shape for us to get excited about upcoming winter? Last winter started real early, but soon changed dramatically to warmer regime.
Click to expand...
Any good SE winter pattern probably starts with a time machine.

I'd say a good Pacific pattern that promotes a frequent +PNA, while ensuring the source region is loaded with cold air. Blocking near Greenland is helpful, but only if it's not blocking in mild Pacific flow. We've enjoyed a compliment of -EPO winters over the last several years. That's awesome for the Midwest, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Any good SE winter pattern probably starts with a time machine.

I'd say a good Pacific pattern that promotes a frequent +PNA, while ensuring the source region is loaded with cold air. Blocking near Greenland is helpful, but only if it's not blocking in mild Pacific flow. We've enjoyed a compliment of -EPO winters over the last several years. That's awesome for the Midwest, though.
Click to expand...
Warm oceans, cold continents
Tree crushing, roof collapsing, pattern!
 
Usually a +pdo promotes more ridging out west during winter and -pdo is the opposite. With the strong Pacific jet last winter it matched good with the laniña atmosphere despite and elniño on paper. It happened in 2011-12 also, which wasn't cold. Most of the good weather experts went cold last winter, but busted pretty bad. Some smaller scale things turned into big issues in terms of cold weather pretty much anywhere.
 
Golf7575 said:
Usually a +pdo promotes more ridging out west during winter and -pdo is the opposite. With the strong Pacific jet last winter it matched good with the laniña atmosphere despite and elniño on paper. It happened in 2011-12 also, which wasn't cold. Most of the good weather experts went cold last winter, but busted pretty bad. Some smaller scale things turned into big issues in terms of cold weather pretty much anywhere.
Click to expand...
Polar vortex split and SSW events are the new buzzwords, they are about as useful as October ice growth! ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Aye how about the MJO
Click to expand...
Aye, Captain. But we all know the QBO rules the roost...as long as it's strongly positive going weakly negative in a fading Nina year. Or is it neutral going strongly neutral in a Nino year? Actually, no, I think it's when it is weakly positive going strongly positive dropping sharply neutral in a waxing La Nino year, coupled with a strong Westerly Wind Burst into a downwelling Kelvin Wave generated by a recurving typhoon during a negative RNA anticyclonic mountain torque supermoon episode on October 31.
 
So any thoughts? Are we actually still in El Niño territory heading for a Modoki El Niño?

We got @Webberweather53 on board here, care to share your thoughts Eric?

Very interested to know, to say the least!

512293CF-EDCF-4130-AE30-E60D7E1A9637.png223DC114-256C-48E3-8EC2-C38DCDDD7B7C.png01CA9018-57CF-4372-9D10-3A4C73D2FF53.png
 
KyloG said:
Is there a worse pattern

Click to expand...

At least we aren't going to hype ourselves up for nothing again. Either it's right and we torch or it busts like it did last year with the cold and we end up cold. Of course warmer doesn't always mean no snow. I'd be worried about a lot of precip with El-ninos because they keep the humidity high and too much tropical air can prevent good snowstorms. It happens every year where there's hype and we don't get the cold required but we get the precip because the overall setup favors just above what we need.
 
GaWx said:
Two words: cold bias.

Edit: Also, bamwx has energy clients, which could easily bias them to look for a cold winter. I think that's one of JB's problems to be honest.

Edit 2: Last year at this time, the model consensus was even colder! Don't fall for it, folks!
Click to expand...

Larry us Snowmen need something positive to hang our hats on, even though you are most likely correct..................... It's not looking so good and that makes for a long sad winter! BTW- I appreciate your posts and all the work you put into them. Now let's get lucky this winter!
FROSTY
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top