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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

KyloG said:
It doesn't get much worse than mid-Dec on for last winter.

It's just hard to envision a winter that has a 3 month period that is on average BN...unless we redefine what is normal. I imagine we will have a couple of 3-5 day stretches thats well BN and we will have to get lucky.

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The most frustrating part of last winter was how models were in great agreement on below-normal temperatures for the SE US, with an enhanced snowfall risk. The winter started out very promising, but mid-December onward was just awful. The coldest we got all winter was 17 degrees. I guess I should consider myself lucky I got ~8" of snow in early December but the winter had potential to be so much more.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Why is it seemingly harder to get a below normal winter in the SE than the rest of the country ? Is it because of proximity to warm ocean water ? Or maybe its just my imagination.
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It’s just hard to get cold air to stay this far south for a long duration. We live in the south east. We are not supposed to stay BN that long. We are a warm region.


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I find it interesting how we have had BN temperatures fairly frequently in certain months (like November, March and April for instance) but they have been exceptionally hard to come by in other months (especially September and December) recently. December has been consistently AN for the southeast since 2011 year after year. December 2017 was the closest to normal of recent years.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I find it interesting how we have had BN temperatures fairly frequently in certain months (like November, March and April for instance) but they have been exceptionally hard to come by in other months (especially September and December) recently. December has been consistently AN for the southeast since 2011 year after year. December 2017 was the closest to normal of recent years.
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8 straight Decembers AN ( most of them way above normal) cant be just a coincidence can it? You are right that some months seem to be more prone to AN for whatever reason.
 
El Nino or even warm ENSO leaning winters like the one we're going into have a tendency to produce larger than average seasonal snowfall gradients between RDU-CLT & GSO. Even though last winter really only had one big storm, it still fits with general trend that you see in a majority of these kind of winters.

2015-16, 2014-15, 2009-10, 2002-03, 1986-87, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1969-70, 1965-66, 1957-58, 1941-42, 1939-40, 1930-31, 1929-30, 1923-24, & 1904-05 are all good historical examples of this.
December 8-10 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
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KyloG said:
It doesn't get much worse than mid-Dec on for last winter.

It's just hard to envision a winter that has a 3 month period that is on average BN...unless we redefine what is normal. I imagine we will have a couple of 3-5 day stretches thats well BN and we will have to get lucky.

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Last winter ruined me in regard to long range forecasting. We supposedly had everything going for us leading up to the winter that lead us/me to believe we could actually have a below average winter. Long range seasonal models, Modoki nino, etc. We even had a true to life SSW unicorn show up right on time. And yet....the models were wrong, the nino didn't "act" like a nino (tropical forcing MJO smackety) and the SSW didn't propagate down enough to the troposphere...or what not.

I'm completely done going in to winter with any long range expectations at all. While it's fun reading seasonal forecasts, whether in October, November, or December for that matter I just think we are still no where close to understanding long range forecasting with any measure of accuracy. Too complex and too many variables interacting with one another. Outside of a week's ensemble runs, I have no confidence in setting any expectations.

With that said I think the persistence warm pattern can only go so far so I'm not sold on a warm winter either. At some point it will break and it could be this year, next year or not at all. To me this winter has the same chance of being cool or warm; 50/50 shot. So bring on the cold seasonal forecasts, I don't believe them. Bring on the warm ones, I don't believe those either. I'm free! lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
Last winter ruined me in regard to long range forecasting. We supposedly had everything going for us leading up to the winter that lead us/me to believe we could actually have a below average winter. Long range seasonal models, Modoki nino, etc. We even had a true to life SSW unicorn show up right on time. And yet....the models were wrong, the nino didn't "act" like a nino (tropical forcing MJO smackety) and the SSW didn't propagate down enough to the troposphere...or what not.

I'm completely done going in to winter with any long range expectations at all. While it's fun reading seasonal forecasts, whether in October, November, or December for that matter I just think we are still no where close to understanding long range forecasting with any measure of accuracy. Too complex and too many variables interacting with one another. Outside of a week's ensemble runs, I have no confidence in setting any expectations.

With that said I think the persistence warm pattern can only go so far so I'm not sold on a warm winter either. At some point it will break and it could be this year, next year or not at all. To me this winter has the same chance of being cool or warm; 50/50 shot. So bring on the cold seasonal forecasts, I don't believe them. Bring on the warm ones, I don't believe those either. I'm free! lol.
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You post is entirely accurate. Long range is merely for entertainment purposes only anymore. Too much involved that no man or computer can figure out. Weather can and does change on a dime regardless of patterns. It is what it is.
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s just hard to get cold air to stay this far south for a long duration. We live in the south east. We are not supposed to stay BN that long. We are a warm region.


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With all due respect I do not agree with that. This is a warm region compared to most of the US, but our long term averages reflect what's normal for this region and we are solidly above that constantly.
 
82ed5149f6b6961857fea7b5c8977758.jpg


Gonna waste all this cold before winter actually starts.


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Webberweather53 said:
El Nino or even warm ENSO leaning winters like the one we're going into have a tendency to produce larger than average seasonal snowfall gradients between RDU-CLT & GSO. Even though last winter really only had one big storm, it still fits with general trend that you see in a majority of these kind of winters.

2015-16, 2014-15, 2009-10, 2002-03, 1986-87, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1969-70, 1965-66, 1957-58, 1941-42, 1939-40, 1930-31, 1929-30, 1923-24, & 1904-05 are all good historical examples of this.
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Holy poop I never knew parts of NC outside the mountains got that much snow
I thought it was like 9 or 10 inches at most.

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Webberweather53 said:
El Nino or even warm ENSO leaning winters like the one we're going into have a tendency to produce larger than average seasonal snowfall gradients between RDU-CLT & GSO. Even though last winter really only had one big storm, it still fits with general trend that you see in a majority of these kind of winters.

2015-16, 2014-15, 2009-10, 2002-03, 1986-87, 1977-78, 1976-77, 1969-70, 1965-66, 1957-58, 1941-42, 1939-40, 1930-31, 1929-30, 1923-24, & 1904-05 are all good historical examples of this.
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That's not a bad set of winters. I'd cash out with any of those starting with 86-87. At least they all show potential for more than 1 event and a big dog if we are lucky

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SD said:
I really want to stay on the disgruntled warm train but its getting harder to do so. I've got this sneaky suspicion that we might be heading down the road of EPO/PNA ridging that pokes toward the pole.

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Far too early to call, but SD, you and I are looking through the same telescope ... just hoping from this end that the lens (or lenses) isn't (aren't) convex ... :cool:
 
SD said:
I really want to stay on the disgruntled warm train but its getting harder to do so. I've got this sneaky suspicion that we might be heading down the road of EPO/PNA ridging that pokes toward the pole.

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Come on man. Snap out of it!

In all seriousness, I'm liking the reshuffling going on in the NPAC in the medium to LR. Still way too early to tell if it means anything yet. But if we start to see favorable trends through November, then I'll start to get a little sucked in maybe. I'm also not sold on the fact that we're going to go wall to wall +++NAO. But I certainly am not willing to bet against it.

If we do end up with a -EPO/+NAO in the means, then I will definitely favor NW sections for the good stuff and leftover slop for you and me.
 
NoSnowATL said:
82ed5149f6b6961857fea7b5c8977758.jpg


Gonna waste all this cold before winter actually starts.


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Waste? Maybe, just maybe, we get locked into a colder pattern for once. We have a surplus of heat that is tipping the scales heavily, so pour months of cold on and we will balance out! If only of course.
 
Rain Cold said:
Come on man. Snap out of it!

In all seriousness, I'm liking the reshuffling going on in the NPAC in the medium to LR. Still way too early to tell if it means anything yet. But if we start to see favorable trends through November, then I'll start to get a little sucked in maybe. I'm also not sold on the fact that we're going to go wall to wall +++NAO. But I certainly am not willing to bet against it.

If we do end up with a -EPO/+NAO in the means, then I will definitely favor NW sections for the good stuff and leftover slop for you and me.
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I don't think I can ever get on the cold winter train again until it happens once or twice. So I'll continue to expect above average temps and maybe a storm or two.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I don't think I can ever get on the cold winter train again until it happens once or twice. So I'll continue to expect above average temps and maybe a storm or two.
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Hard to disagree. We've had only one BN winter since 2011-12 (2014-15), and that was largely due to the last two weeks of February. Even 2013-14, the infamous winter of the Polar Vortex, finished slightly AN due to a warmer than normal December. 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2018-19 were consistently AN. And then you have 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 which all finished AN due to a month of torching (December in 2015, February in 2017/2018).

2017-18 was the closest to a BN winter in recent years, but the February torch resulted in finishing AN.
 
13/14 winter had the nao/ao very positive, however the epo/wpo were very negative. I am still trying to figure out how that occurred. I know we had the "blob" south of alaska, but i think there was more to story than just that.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Hard to disagree. We've had only one BN winter since 2011-12 (2014-15), and that was largely due to the last two weeks of February. Even 2013-14, the infamous winter of the Polar Vortex, finished slightly AN due to a warmer than normal December. 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2018-19 were consistently AN. And then you have 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2017-18 which all finished AN due to a month of torching (December in 2015, February in 2017/2018).

2017-18 was the closest to a BN winter in recent years, but the February torch resulted in finishing AN.
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I know 2013-2014 was skewed warmer here in East AL. I remember a few days where the high was at mid-night due to frontal timing. One of which I think the high was 37 at midnight, yet it was a buttfreezing 14 degrees at 4pm.
 
For some reason a bunch of acorns showed up on the ground anybody else seeing this right now? Maybe a sign of the winters to come if we are early. Never really noticed the Acorns, I guess since we have Oak trees why not. Shows you my Ignorance

Off the topic of Acorns, I saw this on Twitter from Anthony Masiello it’s Interesting while nevertheless discouraging, setting up for the same monotonous pattern.

“Remember, this time of year, tropical forcing from saying the phase 3-6 belt is usually a good indicator for troughs into the eastern US / possible -NAO. These are the very phases that are presumably being limited by the +IOD/QBO/ENSO system (not always the case) currently.”

Translation, for a good winter, at this point the MJO phases should be in phases 3-6 not 1-2 which we are in

He also mentions that the pattern we are in tends to lead to more zonal flow and a stronger PV.
 
Arcc said:
I know 2013-2014 was skewed warmer here in East AL. I remember a few days where the high was at mid-night due to frontal timing. One of which I think the high was 37 at midnight, yet it was a buttfreezing 14 degrees at 4pm.
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This is one aspect of living east of the Apps that I hate, awesome scenarios like this are pretty much impossible.
 
It is just hard for me to be bullish on anything other than a warmer than normal winter for the SE US when only one of the last eight winters have ended up below normal for a large amount of the southeast.

I could be wrong and I would love to be wrong. But the strong model consensus of above normal temperatures as well as recent history just doesn't make me confident.
 
CyclonicFury said:
It is just hard for me to be bullish on anything other than a warmer than normal winter for the SE US when only one of the last eight winters have ended up below normal for a large amount of the southeast.

I could be wrong and I would love to be wrong. But the strong model consensus of above normal temperatures as well as recent history just doesn't make me confident.
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I agree, but if we're looking for winter storms I think we could be good as long as areas to our north are below normal. My reasoning, we get CADs in warm and cold years. If there is cold air available to our north, eventually we tap into it and get our winter storm. So even with the SE averaging above normal we can still score (...as long as the north areas are cold).
 
SD said:
That's not a bad set of winters. I'd cash out with any of those starting with 86-87. At least they all show potential for more than 1 event and a big dog if we are lucky

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Yeah very true, they definitely do. The only downside obviously being that big dogs in NINO winters like 1986-87 are riddled w/ RDU screw jobs, especially when u compare them to the big ones in NINA winters.
January 22-23 1987 NC Snowmap.gif

January 25-26 1987 NC Snowmap.gif
 
SimeonNC said:
Holy poop I never knew parts of NC outside the mountains got that much snow
I thought it was like 9 or 10 inches at most.

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Yep, that storm last December plastered the northern & far western piedmont.

The 1922 "Knickerbocker" storm still holds the record for most snow in a single storm east of the mountains w/ 36" in Roxboro, the observation was likely legit according to several AMS publications at the time.

January 27-28 1922 NC Snow map.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep, that storm last December plastered the northern & far western piedmont.

The 1922 "Knickerbocker" storm still holds the record for most snow in a single storm east of the mountains w/ 36" in Roxboro, the observation was likely legit according to several AMS publications at the time.

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It would be nice if there were data maps like this for South Carolina.


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CADEffect said:
This shut us down for two days:

My favorite storm was in 2004 I lived in Laurens Country at the time and it was a blizzard


02aa3385d6970f433324d20fd831d1d1.jpg


c2d7162c765dcef742ad26f0cc650e82.jpg



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04’ was a solid snowstorm. That’s actually how I gauge my snowstorms around here. If Laurens county gets it , then it must have been a hell of a snowstorm with a near perfect low track and solid cold air placement. Growing up and living in southern Greenville county, I like for that R/S line to be down towards Newberry. That’s when you know it’s going to be one to remember. And the one early December storm from last year will always be ”what could have been”. It was so close to something special around here. Precip jackpot but with 99% rain. And we still managed to get a couple inches of snow. Man.. what could have been
 
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