• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is going to put a lot of pressure on the stratospheric polar vortex, if we can keep it going for more than a few weeks, things could get interesting down the road.
Click to expand...

#3 on my personal best list for MBY was the Dec 2-3 2000 snow, I had 15" on the roof of my car the next morning.....officially we had 8-10" but I measured 12-15" on many flat open spaces. Only Feb 1989 and Mar 1980 had deeper totals.....
 
I don’t understand where he gets “above normal” temps with an Nominal ENSO you have the same equal chance of below temps as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
Here's a link to the entire forecast and video. He basically is citing the neutral enso state for going with above normal temperatures, and precip.
Brad P's Winter Forecast
Click to expand...
This year definitely leans nino even though we haven’t met “x” sst threshold in the Pacific. A nino winter favors above average snow in the mountains, far western and northern piedmont, basically from Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville and points NW, with nearly equal chances of above or below further SE. Usually a safe call to bank on a big seasonal gradient across the piedmont in a winter like this
 
I can’t believe B Rad is going Below normal! He’s the BRad P of BradP’s! I’m going to go with the middle of his prediction and JBs, for my official forecast! 150% of normal @ GSP! You heard it here first! 6” or bust!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I can’t believe B Rad is going Below normal! He’s the BRad P of BradP’s! I’m going to go with the middle of his prediction and JBs, for my official forecast! 150% of normal @ GSP! You heard it here first! 6” or bust!
Click to expand...
Brad went above normal.
 
Tarheel1 said:
That’s more like him! I must have read too fast
Click to expand...
Yes it is. I'm surprised that he went above normal on snowfall. Although, 5 inches is above normal and can happen with one storm. It's so much different than trying to predict areas in the north that always have multiple snow events. The SE is just a crap shoot.
 
packfan98 said:
Yes it is. I'm surprised that he went above normal on snowfall. Although, 5 inches is above normal and can happen with one storm. It's so much different than trying to predict areas in the north that always have multiple snow events. The SE is just a crap shoot.
Click to expand...
Yep because both things can happen, above normal temps and above normal snow... b/c here avg snowfall, as you mentioned ins't that high, so one good storm in an otherwise sucktastic winter can produce
 
packfan98 said:
Yes it is. I'm surprised that he went above normal on snowfall. Although, 5 inches is above normal and can happen with one storm. It's so much different than trying to predict areas in the north that always have multiple snow events. The SE is just a crap shoot.
Click to expand...

Yep, I'm in agreement with Brad here... he said it perfectly - it's like being a power hitter in today's baseball. You'll strike out a lot more than a typical player... but you also hit more home runs too. I think this upcoming winter will be one of these years when a single decent storm will make us pass the seasonal average of 3-4 inches here in central NC. More active storm track = warmer temperature... but also more opportunities to get that "big one" if we get a well-timed cold outbreak from negative AO and/or negative NAO.
 
67450ff4b564ec92b15ee3143cb87a05.jpg


Webb 1 - AM-0


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top