Storm5
Member
100 percent go opposite of what Larry says . He’s been terrible over the last few years
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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
100 percent go opposite of what Larry says . He’s been terrible over the last few years
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cd2play
Member
It's almost like he's deliberately wrong... I mean, you would almost have to try to be wrong EVERY time.
cd2play
Member
The Joe Bastard effect....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GOA/Aleutians ridge is favored during phase 1-2 MJO which is where we're going to be for the foreseeable future as it interferes w/ an Indian Ocean standing wave.
Thor
Member
Will be curious to see if this warming actually develops like this and the impacts it could have on the pattern
With all the back and forth emotional swings about how December is going to turn out, maybe we just end up with a “normal” Winter with threats in the climo favored time frame of January and February. The last 2 years have spoiled us a bit with these early December winter storms. Some of our best winters down here in Columbia came with virtually no threats in the SE in December. Maybe we can actually get a cold and stormy February for once.
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cd2play
Member
A cold story?
Heck yeh, you never had a cold story in February?
Agree 100%. Those expecting yet another early December winter storm are likely going to be disappointed. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a widespread threat east of the mountains until January.
Agree. 2013-2014 was sorta like that. There was a minor event for NC and SC in November 2013. But after that, there wasn't anything until Mid January 2014 when we had that arctic air mass that sorta set the tone for the late January storm that year. Then 2 weeks later, the big one hit in February of 2014. It's been odd the last few Winters. Last year, the early December storm hit a few lucky folks then nothing... until the weird storm in April. 2017-2018, the early December storm, then it got stupid cold at the end of the year into early January, then the coastal storm then the storm in Mid January then... nothing. Winter was basically over. 2016-2017 was another front loaded Winter with the big storm in early Jan that shafted a lot of folks then nothing except for the event in mid March but Mid March snow is pretty lame, it melts off quick and just doesn't have that same feel. So really, we haven't had a traditional Winter in quite some time. Trust me, I want a huge December snowstorm too, December snow just hits different with Christmas being in the air and everything, but unfortunately, it's not always going to happen.
Judah Cohen sez, get ready for a 00-01 redux: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
SnowNiner
Member
My issue is not December in and of itself. I dont expect winter weather in December. January and February are the normal event months. December can torch away, doesn't really matter.
My issue is I have little faith in a flip come January if we completely go western trough through December. The winter pattern more or less repeats or seems to for years. What we get in December is what I expect for the winter. I'm holding out hope the poor Pacific is transient and the blocking more or less holds in December, tries to persist.
My issue is I have little faith in a flip come January if we completely go western trough through December. The winter pattern more or less repeats or seems to for years. What we get in December is what I expect for the winter. I'm holding out hope the poor Pacific is transient and the blocking more or less holds in December, tries to persist.
Exactly my point! We keep saying It will look better in January or February. Even if there is good scientific proof to that, what happens if it doesn’t occur. We have had warmer winters the majority of the decade, there is nothing from stopping me to believe, we, the southeast people might be disappointed . As much as I hope to, what can go wrong will go wrong.
Luckily we don’t have and real analysis keeping from having a cold winter Christmas and onward. I’m not going to cliff dive, I am just weary of a repeat of last year. In which I don’t want me or anybody on the board to get their hopes up.
Hey batting .100 is better than striking out all the time, right. Right? Who am I kidding, the dude will bunt and it will hit him before he gets two steps from the box.
and your phd credentials, kind sir? lol
Tis true, I do not have Phd credentials, but it's ok as I'm just a spectator and not the one swinging the bat.
NoSnowATL
Member
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ajr
Member
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Masiello has been waving the snowy/stormy flag for a little while now - I’m interested to see how things pan out
NoSnowATL
Member
SnowNiner
Member
Yes, keep hope alive! I'm sure December is not going to be great. But if the blocking in greenland holds and we fight off a WAR/SE ridge most of the month like shown below, that's got to portend good things the rest of the winter....
As others have said, I can't remember any time AM has been this bullish on a winter. Doesn't mean he's right but it's interesting.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Remember that year Houston had a white Christmas?? That was good stuff! AM is the new JB?
2004 I believe ?
I remember that year that there was a big Christmas storm in the SE. 
MichaelJ
Member
Ant is pretty good overall so his opinion does matter to some degree
NoSnowATL
Member
I hope it’s not true, 2003 was awful here. Got 0.0. 2002 was great on the other hand.
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SnowNiner
Member
Well, that was the year of the NC Piedmont massive ice storm. I can't recall any further snow though. We probably did but I can't recall. That ice storm was certainly memorable. I had no power for 3 days and it remained very cold after the storm. That was a very good winter pattern and I'm surprised we didn't get more. I'd take that pattern all day this year and take my chances.
Seems like forever now we have had to hope for a great pac to save us...maybe it's time for the atlantic to chip in here.
The hemispheric pattern for Dec looks like it could start off a lot different, outside the pacific, from the previous warm Dec's.
The hemispheric pattern for Dec looks like it could start off a lot different, outside the pacific, from the previous warm Dec's.
Fairly active winter, just no big dogs for the piedmont. Would gladly take a repeat, seems like we would be tracking something weekly.
https://www.weather.gov/rah/events
It’s like nails on the chalkboard when I read “models flip flop” because they don’t....but GEFS sure is bouncing around. A couple discernible trends though is stronger NAO block and Siberian low.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You can find these on my site: https://www.webberweather.com/
or NWS RAH past events page: https://www.weather.gov/rah/events
SnowNiner
Member
Thanks for that. Great winter, I'm surprised I didn't remember that January 22 storm. It was a very good storm for CLT. I guess the following year's February 04 storm of the decade must have spoiled me! lol.
That ridging around the Hudson Bay/Davis strait has been showing up a lot, and not backing down yet.. it’s really saving us from any torching atm and helps to keep a more average pattern, if that ridging disappears tho things will get ugly unless the pacific miraculously looks better
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that storm completely overshadowed the middle 2000s for those near the I-85 corridor between Greensboro & Charlotte.
Cadi40
Member
I can’t remember a ‘storm of the decade’ storm for the 2010’s in the Charlotte area? Anyone care to elaborate?
