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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

3996f3b19870d262791dfccf9a6069f3.plist
looks like it wants to go back towards 5,6 to me.

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NoSnowATL said:
3996f3b19870d262791dfccf9a6069f3.plist
looks like it wants to go back towards 5,6 to me.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Over a week ago at that same lead time looked like it was going to COD too, don't lose site of positive trends.

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As a frequent observer and major fan of this site I’ll add my opinion. To preface first and foremost I love snow as much as anyone on this site, borderline obsessed. Especially with the chase, which we do in the southeast most winters and for some most of our lives, only to usually be disappointed. I know how frustrating it is to await and be either elated or disturbed by each model run. However, for those of us btw the Upstate of SC and Charlotte we have two great historical patterns on our side. We saw some cold temps in Nov&Dec but no snow. That is a great thing for snow lovers in our area historically speaking. We have a better chance of seeing heavier and more frequent snow events Jan-Mar in this region after a warm and relatively parched Nov&Dec.
Lastly, I’m old enough to mention folk lore, old wive’s tales, aching bones, etc. Having a Met degree, even sometimes I rely on a few of these more than science. That said, last night when thunder awoke me several times in Charlotte first thought was Game On. Not necessarily next week for Charlotte Metro, but Winter has just begun my friends.
I’m about to stock the cabinet with Bourbon and look forward to the pattern change. It will, just hopefully in mby and yours too. Keep up the good work you overly zealous snow cravers, I LOVE your passion!!

Quo
 
Is Robert from wxsouth still calling for a back loaded tree crashing roof collapsing winter for us or
 
Winter was a true F rating in Wilkes. Maybe a plus for some occasional accumulations.
 
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D+...I saw snow 3 times and was able to travel to the mountains to see some good snow a couple times. This winter lacked a good cold snap and solid accumulating snow
 
F - I saw snow fall for about a total of maybe 2hrs in two separate events and it literally didn’t amount to anything, other than a wet ground and brown, muddy grass. Kinda sad November was the worst of the cold and that’s a fall month, not winter.
 
The snow last month made it a C for me. Could of been much better if it stuck around long enough to enjoy it. Plus this miserable rainy pattern really makes me look forward to any sunny days coming up.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
D+...I saw snow 3 times and was able to travel to the mountains to see some good snow a couple times. This winter lacked a good cold snap and solid accumulating snow
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You live in the purgatory known as SC, saw snowfall 3 times and give it a D+? Am I missing something here? ?
 
metwannabe said:
You live in the purgatory known as SC, saw snowfall 3 times and give it a D+? Am I missing something here? ?
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Southern Greenville county can scrounge up a ground coating even in the worst of winters. That doesn’t impress me. This ain’t Columbia. D+ is a fair grade
 
D. The cold in November and the snow last month helped pull this above an F. Really bad winter as far as snow/cold overall though, I wasnt mad about the rain especially after the flash drought. So the last 3 winters have gone A/B, F, D. We are due?
 
SD said:
D. The cold in November and the snow last month helped pull this above an F. Really bad winter as far as snow/cold overall though, I wasnt mad about the rain especially after the flash drought. So the last 3 winters have gone A/B, F, D. We are due?
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Shane, why did you go with F for last winter? Didn't you get rocked the beginning of December 2018? We got hit here also in Arkansas. Last winter was way better than this winter
 
Mr. Golf said:
Shane, why did you go with F for last winter? Didn't you get rocked the beginning of December 2018? We got hit here also in Arkansas. Last winter was way better than this winter
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Ummm don't bring that one up with him Lol... I'm pretty sure he's still bitter about it, but I'll let him explain
 
SD said:
D. The cold in November and the snow last month helped pull this above an F. Really bad winter as far as snow/cold overall though, I wasnt mad about the rain especially after the flash drought. So the last 3 winters have gone A/B, F, D. We are due?
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The SE is due for still another mild winter next winter with SER domination if the very stubborn warm water that is centered in and near Indonesia doesn’t cool off appreciably. If it is still there in 6 months, the odds of still another mild winter become too high to ignore as tropical forcing is a powerful influence. So, for those not wanting another one, start hoping for those waters to cool off soon as that kind of thing in that area typically takes a good bit of time. Even JB realizes this. And I don’t mean modeled cooldowns as the models have shown us they’re not too skillful with this as this screwed up JB. I mean seeing actual cooling real-time.
 
GaWx said:
The SE is due for still another mild winter next winter with SER domination if the very stubborn warm water that is centered in and near Indonesia doesn’t cool off appreciably. If it is still there in 6 months, the odds of still another mild winter become too high to ignore as tropical forcing is a powerful influence. So, for those not wanting another one, start hoping for those waters to cool off soon as that kind of thing in that area typically takes a good bit of time. Even JB realizes this. And I don’t mean modeled cooldowns as the models have shown us they’re not too skillful with this as this screwed up JB. I mean seeing actual cooling real-time.
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Larry, I guess it was the main thing that led to winter being warm, but it was warm nationwide also. I know we live in the south, but not many want warm winters.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I guess it was the main thing that led to winter being warm, but it was warm nationwide also. I know we live in the south, but not many want warm winters.
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That it wasn’t just the E US that was warm was likely largely due to the strong +AO. Also, that just made it even warmer in the SE. But regardless, the warm W Pacific waters need to cool for a reasonable shot at not getting still another mild winter. Otherwise, look for still another winter with domination by MJO phases 4-6 and SER domination. GW doesn’t help either.

Some here have stated they actually prefer snow but with mild winters.
 
GaWx said:
That it wasn’t just the E US that was warm was likely largely due to the strong +AO. Also, that just made it even warmer in the SE. But regardless, the warm W Pacific waters need to cool for a reasonable shot at not getting still another mild winter. Otherwise, look for still another winter with domination by MJO phases 4-6 and SER domination. GW doesn’t help either.
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I know u mentioned Indonesia, but what about around 180 degrees west?
 
GaWx said:
Another mild winter averaged out with SE ridge domination is likely. The trend is your friend. The warm ocean in combo with GW help make this likely to verify correctly. Regardless, I predict it will still be way more comfortable and therefore way more enjoyable than the summer. I expect there will still be a few short periods of intense cold as is almost always the case, which will make things interesting on occasion.

I also predict with even higher confidence that JB (and others) will predict cold and that that forecast will fail miserably.

I predict KATL will end up around 2-4F warmer than the 30 year normal or near 47-49 for DJF. There may be one major ZR or sleet threat if ENSO cools to cold neutral. There will be no major snows though they’ll be teased as usual with a threat or two. In addition to any possible sleet, I predict 0.4” of snow. So, it will be much snowier than last winter’s shutout but still well below the long term average near 2”. The northside will average near 1” of snow.
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Bump
 
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