• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
 
Going to be interesting to see how the wind threat evolves around here tonight.

Already seen a report of a 53 mph wind gust in Pickens county and a wind gust of 35 mph at KATL.

Once the rain starts to pick up in intensity tonight threat for some stronger wind gusts will probably increase. Hopefully not much will amount from it, but some moderate to heavy rain coupled with some 35-40 mph wind gusts like the FFC is forecasting is gonna cause some power outages in a few places.

Will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few hours.
 
Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

View attachment 28766

Compared to the above 12Z run, the 18Z GFS is not as bad at KCHS with ~6" vs ~9" (though with 7-7.5" downtown-Mt. Pleasant). Also, KSAV is slightly better with ~6" vs ~6.25". Only ~0.10" fell before this initiated at 18Z:

1577052550993.png
 
We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
Wedge is king. Lol
 
Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
 
Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
Leaving Daytwat is always nice ... especially if you're going under the river to Windsor ... :cool:
 
When I went outside to walk (with an umbrella), it felt colder than I was anticipating, for sure. It was probably about 43-44 in the middle of the day, wind chill making it feel upper 30s.

Edit: Don't think it was raining as hard as it was for a stretch the last rain day I went outside, but I ended up getting wetter as I struggled with the umbrella a bit (wind and cold, as I had to fix my jacket to cover my hands) and my shoes were even more soaked.
 
Those of us in middle TN can relate to this... it appears the Nashville dome wins again. I picked up a whopping 0.07 in the rain gauge.
 
Impressive.

20193571521_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-1250x750.jpg
 
How did Georgia fair with those high wind warnings and flooding. Total dud here with very light rates. Maybe coastal SC will see a little flooding but it only takes 1” to flood there so..I can’t believe this was compared to ‘93.
 
Back
Top