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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
 
Going to be interesting to see how the wind threat evolves around here tonight.

Already seen a report of a 53 mph wind gust in Pickens county and a wind gust of 35 mph at KATL.

Once the rain starts to pick up in intensity tonight threat for some stronger wind gusts will probably increase. Hopefully not much will amount from it, but some moderate to heavy rain coupled with some 35-40 mph wind gusts like the FFC is forecasting is gonna cause some power outages in a few places.

Will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few hours.
 
GaWx said:
Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

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Compared to the above 12Z run, the 18Z GFS is not as bad at KCHS with ~6" vs ~9" (though with 7-7.5" downtown-Mt. Pleasant). Also, KSAV is slightly better with ~6" vs ~6.25". Only ~0.10" fell before this initiated at 18Z:

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GaWx said:
We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
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Wedge is king. Lol
 
Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
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Leaving Daytwat is always nice ... especially if you're going under the river to Windsor ... :cool:
 
When I went outside to walk (with an umbrella), it felt colder than I was anticipating, for sure. It was probably about 43-44 in the middle of the day, wind chill making it feel upper 30s.

Edit: Don't think it was raining as hard as it was for a stretch the last rain day I went outside, but I ended up getting wetter as I struggled with the umbrella a bit (wind and cold, as I had to fix my jacket to cover my hands) and my shoes were even more soaked.
 
Those of us in middle TN can relate to this... it appears the Nashville dome wins again. I picked up a whopping 0.07 in the rain gauge.
 
Impressive.

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How did Georgia fair with those high wind warnings and flooding. Total dud here with very light rates. Maybe coastal SC will see a little flooding but it only takes 1” to flood there so..I can’t believe this was compared to ‘93.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
How did Georgia fair with those high wind warnings and flooding. Total dud here with very light rates. Maybe coastal SC will see a little flooding but it only takes 1” to flood there so..I can’t believe this was compared to ‘93.
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Just under 2" here and we had some gusty winds. Not sure about how strong but we verified slightly above the wind advisory criteria near here.
 
Shaggy said:
Models did good here so far. Very light rain that isnt amounting to much
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Same here, in fact, the Euro had the highest amounts up this way and so far that was too much (it's cutoff for now and hopefully for good with this system)
 
pcbjr said:
Round 2 -

View attachment 28870

Just drove back from Tampa... amazing the amount of standing water along I-75, and the temp differential over just 130 miles ...
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Speaking of standing water, I now have a brand new Lake Larry in MBY! Below is a map of the CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip amounts ending ~7 AM today in Chatham County. I'm toward the middle of the county where ~4.5-5" had fallen per this map. Since then, another 0.50-0.75" fell. My total is 5.35" and the event isn't finished! The upper low shown on Phil's radar over the NE GOM is moving E and the deformation zone on the NW side of the upper low will bring rains back to the area tonight with as much as another inch or so forecasted (12Z Euro has 0.75"). So, I could be pushing 6" when this is all over tomorrow morning.

Officially at KSAV, 4.21" has fallen, already making it the 4th wettest Dec. event on record going back to the 1870s. The total could get close to 5" by tomorrow morning. That would make it the 3rd wettest.

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GaWx said:
Speaking of standing water, I now have a brand new Lake Larry in MBY! Below is a map of the CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip amounts ending ~7 AM today in Chatham County. I'm toward the middle of the county where ~4.5-5" had fallen per this map. Since then, another 0.50-0.75" fell. My total is 5.35" and the event isn't finished! The upper low shown on Phil's radar over the NE GOM is moving E and the deformation zone on the NW side of the upper low will bring rains back to the area tonight with as much as another inch or so forecasted (12Z Euro has 0.75"). So, I could be pushing 6" when this is all over tomorrow morning.

Officially at KSAV, 4.21" has fallen, already making it the 4th wettest Dec. event on record going back to the 1870s. The total could get close to 5" by tomorrow morning. That would make it the 3rd wettest.

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Wow!
 
BirdManDoomW said:
How did Georgia fair with those high wind warnings and flooding. Total dud here with very light rates. Maybe coastal SC will see a little flooding but it only takes 1” to flood there so..I can’t believe this was compared to ‘93.
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1.42in and lots of small branches down - woodstock ga
 
2.3"** and it was breezy and brisk yesterday. Don't know about the high winds.

Euro did good on this one, thankfully no known issues locally I believe from the hefty rain totals but I'm not sure how much more can be taken in lower areas.

Edit: Whoops, I was wrong. Dam break in Aiken County over in SC. Major flooding over there.

2nd edit: Well, dad claims I read the rain gauge wrong so I put the edited number that he said. Not sure here and I don't have backup to check, so "shrug".
 
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The water table is so high in this area from this very heavy rain event that many septic tanks are backing up. But the roads are mostly fine now because it has been a very long duration steady rain rather than thunderstorms causing torrential downpours/street flooding. The yards look worse than the roads.

More rain is now falling as the upper low gets closer in its trek over FL south of here. Will be adding to my event total that is already over 5". Will it get to 6" by tomorrow morning?
 
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