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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

GaWx

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Based on my research this evening:

- The record wettest KCHS event for Dec and all of met winter back to 1938 is 6.94" , which was set 12/23-6/1941. This is in danger of being threatened per the last 4 GFS runs and last Euro! The 2nd wettest winter event is 5.96", set 2-15-7/1898. The 3rd wettest is 5.07" set 2/10/1940

- The record wettest KSAV event for Dec back to the 1870s is 7.48", which was set 12/20-23/2007. The 2nd wettest for Dec is 5.55" set 11/30-12/2/1896. The 3rd wettest is 4.49", set 12/9-13/1947. The 4th wettest is 3.99", set 12/23-4/1887. The 5th wettest is 3.76" set 12/9-10/1885. KSAV will have a good shot at a top 5 wettest Dec event.
 

Shaggy

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Last night's 0z Euro run dumped a foot of rain near Charleston.

View attachment 28746
I'm on that very sharp cutoff on the northeast side of the precip. Shows greenville,nc getting .60 and any shift north increases totals quickly. Remaining hopeful the totals stay low here. Not sure there's any way Georgia and SC get out of this without quite a bit of heavy rain.
 

GaWx

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Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

1577032941228.png
 
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KyloG

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Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century occurrence for a nontropical event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

View attachment 28762
Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?
 

GaWx

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Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?
No, the combo of 9” in 48 hours with strong onshore winds would cause major flooding on the peninsula where lowlying downtown CHS is located. Near high tides would be really bad. The only good news is that these high tides are not astronomically very high ones like spring/king tides. But that’s barely going to matter with these rainfall amounts and long lasting strong onshore winds.

*Edited
 

GaWx

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The less accurate CMC has 8” of rain from SAV to Beaufort, SC!
1577034260834.png
 

GaWx

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It still looks downright awful for CHS per this 12Z Euro 48 hour QPF with 8”/record DJF heavy rain event with record being 6.94":
1577038218819.png
 
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Shaggy

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Models backed down my precip again and have me very close to that northern edge. The guys along the gulf coast and SC gonna get a bunch of rain.
 

GaWx

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We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
 

BufordWX

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Going to be interesting to see how the wind threat evolves around here tonight.

Already seen a report of a 53 mph wind gust in Pickens county and a wind gust of 35 mph at KATL.

Once the rain starts to pick up in intensity tonight threat for some stronger wind gusts will probably increase. Hopefully not much will amount from it, but some moderate to heavy rain coupled with some 35-40 mph wind gusts like the FFC is forecasting is gonna cause some power outages in a few places.

Will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few hours.
 

GaWx

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Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

View attachment 28766
Compared to the above 12Z run, the 18Z GFS is not as bad at KCHS with ~6" vs ~9" (though with 7-7.5" downtown-Mt. Pleasant). Also, KSAV is slightly better with ~6" vs ~6.25". Only ~0.10" fell before this initiated at 18Z:

1577052550993.png
 

deltadog03

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We all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
Wedge is king. Lol
 

SouthATLwx

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Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
 

pcbjr

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Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).

Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
Leaving Daytwat is always nice ... especially if you're going under the river to Windsor ... :cool:
 
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