That's crazy. Thankfully this isn't a snow event I might ban myself. Have to think the north models are the way to go
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
I motion they go back to the models we had around 2010. Can I get a second?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ECMWF of 2010 was roughly as skillful as today’s Fv3 GFS, that’s how far behind the curve we are with NWP in the US vs Europe.
What is strange though is it seems the Euro then was better at picking out storms more consistently, but that may just be perception at the time. I know the old GFS as bad as it was more reliable.
SimeonNC
Member
What are the temps looking like for the event on all of the models, honestly I wouldn't mind CR if it was like this.
Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
They so should have gone with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) core.
cd2play
Member
Imagine my shock 
This proves the GFS is a absolute dumpster fire
All models have been consistently increasing rain accumulations for SC as we get closer to verification. Flooding will definitely be in play!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tell me again why anyone was giving this model any consideration here.
Honestly, Webb what causes precipitation to increase in Intensity in SC?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The track of the upper low has shifted NW in the GFS, slowed down & become stronger in later runs, which increases both the intensity and duration of the moisture fetch on its eastern flank over SC and also shifts this warm conveyor belt further north. Not only does this mean the precip comes northward, but the precip that does come further north on later runs also has the potentially to be more intense. Increasing the strength of the warm conveyor belt strengthens the upstream diabatic ridge downstream of the upper low via potential vorticity redistribution, slowing it down. It's effectively a non-linear positive feedback loop & that's what you're seeing here.
Here's a few animations to reinforce my previous statement(s).
BHS1975
Member
Didn’t SC get flooded like a few years ago?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Stormsfury
Member
Beginning of October 2015. Yes. Not expecting those types of rainfall but eerily similar setup (minus Hurricane Joaquin so no direct tropical infusion of deep tropical moisture)
gawxnative
Member
Well another factor, with fairly strong gradient winds and already wet soils, we will most likely have some tree/power issues scattered in