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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

GaWx

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The models are nearly unanimous in having a strong and slow moving storm in the SE US 12/21-3. The major impact potential is for widespread heavy rains (as heavy as ~8" in a few spots), winds near 40 knots, especially NE GOM and near and just offshore the SE coast, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. There's even an outside chance this gets named as a subtropical storm in the Gulf.
 

GaWx

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Per Happy Hour GFS: a whopping 3-6" of rain covers most of the N 1/2 of FL and S 1/4 of GA with isolated lolipops to 10"! The adjacent SE coast is battered by several days straight of onshore winds, beach erosion, and likely coastal flooding at high tides.
 

Meteorologist1999

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Per Happy Hour GFS: a whopping 3-6" of rain covers most of the N 1/2 of FL and S 1/4 of GA with isolated lolipops to 10"! The adjacent SE coast is battered by several days straight of onshore winds, beach erosion, and likely coastal flooding at high tides.
The gfs will shift NW with rain totals as we get closer.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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This is late but needless to say, I'd rather the GFS be right because...

1576628805880.png

This area, and probably areas surrounding does not need that kind of rain. I'd actually probably argue that if it does get toward high totals, it's going to be a problem in lower lying areas. After today, the surrounding areas are going to be close to 5" recently.

Another inch or so would be fine though.

Edit: And if the pacific wasn't hostile, I'd welcome this precip for at least people living north of me.
 

deltadog03

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I still feel like this one could hold some surprises. Why?. IDK. Lol. Honestly it will probably be just a cold rain, but check this out. It’s the 0z run from last night vs the 12z run vs the current 0z run. Notice how on each run it’s getting progressively colder. (6z and 18z runs no different). Another 3-5* and it could be those super heavy fat wet flakes. To be honest (if euro and gfs are right) his is an IDEAL track for us in mid GA. Time will tell, but I don’t think we have enough cold air.
6B680251-8F8F-4FDE-B8EF-5AC7D8E37C00.jpeg 75BDBF17-C7CD-44E6-931B-6D39AD83F307.jpeg D899FF15-BB14-4458-A82B-1ADE2EEF1D05.jpeg
 

Ethan80963

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Myfrotho704_

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It’s worth noting that while the GFS does not have precip in these areas, soundings do support wet snow in WNC if you wet bulb (blue line) certainly a close call and why this thing can’t be written off yet 8E4C0539-03B9-41D8-8A3C-CB58B3916218.png FEB54758-8A71-460C-96DE-EC60BE5E328A.png E6EB58BE-B255-4493-899A-7C5ABCC07BD2.png
 

Webberweather53

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Euro is definitely an improvement over last night's run but the 850s are way too warm (+3-4C ish) certainly won't get the job done here if you're hoping for wet snow on this particular op run, sleet or ZR perhaps could be realized if areas wet bulb below freezing. Really need to see the 0z EPS
 

Myfrotho704_

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Wonder if this may produce severe weather in Florida, there gonna be in the warm sector with a intensifying surface low pressure system and 850 winds will start to crank
 

Myfrotho704_

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Eh gfs didn’t look impressed with any severe, and no wonder the gefs looks better, Atlantic Canada trough has been sliding west some these past few runs 4E14CD19-1FA3-4C36-B9C5-AC76F17DE2B0.gif
 

deltadog03

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Euro is definitely an improvement over last night's run but the 850s are way too warm (+3-4C ish) certainly won't get the job done here if you're hoping for wet snow on this particular op run, sleet or ZR perhaps could be realized if areas wet bulb below freezing. Really need to see the 0z EPS
What’s funny/sucks is euro and gfs both continue to cool down around here at 2m and 850. Still about 2-5 (top/down) too warm but it’s trying to get close. Really almost an ideal track around here. GFS a little bit better track.
 
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