The models are nearly unanimous in having a strong and slow moving storm in the SE US 12/21-3. The major impact potential is for widespread heavy rains (as heavy as ~8" in a few spots), winds near 40 knots, especially NE GOM and near and just offshore the SE coast, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. There's even an outside chance this gets named as a subtropical storm in the Gulf.
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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Not much of a thing N of 20, but FL looks a little showery
Per Happy Hour GFS: a whopping 3-6" of rain covers most of the N 1/2 of FL and S 1/4 of GA with isolated lolipops to 10"! The adjacent SE coast is battered by several days straight of onshore winds, beach erosion, and likely coastal flooding at high tides.
Wonder if we can get some subtropical characteristics here
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The gfs will shift NW with rain totals as we get closer.
Yeah, the GFS is the most southern and less expansive guidance. At this point, I'm going to discount it.
Needed that big vortex spinning in SE Canada?
We just needed the pac to not be so hostile, the worst as depicted. Shuts off cold air supply.
So a +PNA basically would have sealed the deal?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This is late but needless to say, I'd rather the GFS be right because...
This area, and probably areas surrounding does not need that kind of rain. I'd actually probably argue that if it does get toward high totals, it's going to be a problem in lower lying areas. After today, the surrounding areas are going to be close to 5" recently.
Another inch or so would be fine though.
Edit: And if the pacific wasn't hostile, I'd welcome this precip for at least people living north of me.
This area, and probably areas surrounding does not need that kind of rain. I'd actually probably argue that if it does get toward high totals, it's going to be a problem in lower lying areas. After today, the surrounding areas are going to be close to 5" recently.
Another inch or so would be fine though.
Edit: And if the pacific wasn't hostile, I'd welcome this precip for at least people living north of me.
hypothetically...yeah, or EPO flip
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Brent
Member
What a waste no cold air
I still feel like this one could hold some surprises. Why?. IDK. Lol. Honestly it will probably be just a cold rain, but check this out. It’s the 0z run from last night vs the 12z run vs the current 0z run. Notice how on each run it’s getting progressively colder. (6z and 18z runs no different). Another 3-5* and it could be those super heavy fat wet flakes. To be honest (if euro and gfs are right) his is an IDEAL track for us in mid GA. Time will tell, but I don’t think we have enough cold air.
GEFS has a sizable snow increase for CAD areas (don’t know if it’s skewed)
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Believe it or not, more gefs members show snow/ZR in western NC, definitely not skewed, some start it out as snow to sleet/ZR to rain
i still wouldn’t rule out some front end snow west of 85 in NC if precip arrives early like some gefs members show, 850s would initially be right at 0C along with temps in the mid 30s, it would eventually change to rain tho due to 850s going above freezing
Wow color me surprised. And it seems like many members have also decided on the general placement of the low. It’s good to see at least some general agreement
Also not looking at totals but many members this run vs even around GSP
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It’s worth noting that while the GFS does not have precip in these areas, soundings do support wet snow in WNC if you wet bulb (blue line) certainly a close call and why this thing can’t be written off yet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah as I mentioned in the main Dec thread, most have left this storm for dead but I certainly don't think it's over yet especially for the western piedmont & mountains of NC.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm very curious to see how the 0z EPS looks because it has backed away the last few runs although it too has not completely eliminated the threat entirely
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z Euro looks like a decent improvement by day 3 over last night's 0z run w/ the wave further north over the southern plains
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro is definitely an improvement over last night's run but the 850s are way too warm (+3-4C ish) certainly won't get the job done here if you're hoping for wet snow on this particular op run, sleet or ZR perhaps could be realized if areas wet bulb below freezing. Really need to see the 0z EPS
Wonder if this may produce severe weather in Florida, there gonna be in the warm sector with a intensifying surface low pressure system and 850 winds will start to crank
Eh gfs didn’t look impressed with any severe, and no wonder the gefs looks better, Atlantic Canada trough has been sliding west some these past few runs
Geez excuse my spelling, I need sleep, lol
Clem282340
Member
Where do you find this at
What’s funny/sucks is euro and gfs both continue to cool down around here at 2m and 850. Still about 2-5 (top/down) too warm but it’s trying to get close. Really almost an ideal track around here. GFS a little bit better track.
Looks very wet and possibly windy as well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In contrast to the 0z GEFS, the 0z EPS says no dice and has basically dropped the solstice system entirely.
06z gefs way less impressive
It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field.
No sir, the area of Low pressure should start the shift NW closer to the SE coast.
Probably a combination of the two, I can see the low actually verifying more NW then currently modeled by the GFS and I definitely can see a more expansive precip shield. TBH, since there is no cold air around, I'd rather it not come north at all.... I'd like to dry out.
Now we know how the Euro (and most modeling overdoes wind gust) but here are some projections from the Euro... even if too high, still looks down right windy. Interesting system no doubt
Wow can you post rainfall amounts from Euro?
What drought?
I'd rather have snow, but I honestly do enjoy a good soaking rain, so bring it on.