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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

Meteorologist1999 said:
No sir, the area of Low pressure should start the shift NW closer to the SE coast.
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Everyone talks about a shift NW, but in reality it’s not a shift verbatim. It’s a correction of the modeling. It’s what the LP was going to do all along. The data to start with was wrong. That’s why I say it’s a correction.
 
tramadoc said:
Everyone talks about a shift NW, but in reality it’s not a shift verbatim. It’s a correction of the modeling. It’s what the LP was going to do all along. The data to start with was wrong. That’s why I say it’s a correction.
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I see what you are saying but your first post in response to his NW shift comment said "It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field." nothing about "correction". I mean the same could be said about any aspect of a model projection... 5 days out it shows an Apps runner, then as we get closer the slp is off the coast, we're going to say the model is shifting SE, but you state we should say, it corrected. All models correct as it gets closer.... you're arguing semantics.
 
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for what its worth the 12z NAM has virga and precip falling over Western NC at hr 84. It is the NAM long range. It has a tendency to be a little too aggressive with precip.

refcmp.us_ma.png

DP's are ok.

sfctd.us_ma.png


Here is my sounding. I'm west of the NC/TN state line so most soundings in the Western NC area are even better than this.

my sounding.png
 
Will see how this run ends but the UK sheared out the ULL.

icon_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
metwannabe said:
I see what you are saying but your first post in response to his NW shift comment said "It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field." nothing about "correction". I mean the same could be said about any aspect of a model projection... 5 days out it shows an Apps runner, then as we get closer the slp is off the coast, we're going to say the model is shifting SE, but you state we should say, it corrected. All models correct as it gets closer.... you're arguing semantics.
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That’s because I’m pedantic to a fault.
 
Goona get rough in Alabama with what the Euro is showing
sfcmslp.conus.png
 
SD said:
That's what she....nvm.

Honestly im not sold on it even raining here yet.

Sees euro....disregard my post

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Would that be the girl sitting in the desk next to..... nvm

Yeah I could see the Euro being to amped in this instance and bringing precip too far north. And honestly I'd be perfectly happy with no precip from it
 
Y’all notice a deeper H5 look too? Damn temps tho. Many areas are closer at sfc and 850 but still not there.
 
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