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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

Meteorologist1999 said:
No sir, the area of Low pressure should start the shift NW closer to the SE coast.
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Everyone talks about a shift NW, but in reality it’s not a shift verbatim. It’s a correction of the modeling. It’s what the LP was going to do all along. The data to start with was wrong. That’s why I say it’s a correction.
 
Wonder if we get the eventual NW shift.

Regardless, it's a washout for most.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_precip_inch-7167200.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7124000.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7167200.png
 
tramadoc said:
Everyone talks about a shift NW, but in reality it’s not a shift verbatim. It’s a correction of the modeling. It’s what the LP was going to do all along. The data to start with was wrong. That’s why I say it’s a correction.
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I see what you are saying but your first post in response to his NW shift comment said "It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field." nothing about "correction". I mean the same could be said about any aspect of a model projection... 5 days out it shows an Apps runner, then as we get closer the slp is off the coast, we're going to say the model is shifting SE, but you state we should say, it corrected. All models correct as it gets closer.... you're arguing semantics.
 
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for what its worth the 12z NAM has virga and precip falling over Western NC at hr 84. It is the NAM long range. It has a tendency to be a little too aggressive with precip.

refcmp.us_ma.png

DP's are ok.

sfctd.us_ma.png


Here is my sounding. I'm west of the NC/TN state line so most soundings in the Western NC area are even better than this.

my sounding.png
 
Will see how this run ends but the UK sheared out the ULL.

icon_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
metwannabe said:
I see what you are saying but your first post in response to his NW shift comment said "It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field." nothing about "correction". I mean the same could be said about any aspect of a model projection... 5 days out it shows an Apps runner, then as we get closer the slp is off the coast, we're going to say the model is shifting SE, but you state we should say, it corrected. All models correct as it gets closer.... you're arguing semantics.
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That’s because I’m pedantic to a fault.
 
Goona get rough in Alabama with what the Euro is showing
sfcmslp.conus.png
 
SD said:
That's what she....nvm.

Honestly im not sold on it even raining here yet.

Sees euro....disregard my post

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Would that be the girl sitting in the desk next to..... nvm

Yeah I could see the Euro being to amped in this instance and bringing precip too far north. And honestly I'd be perfectly happy with no precip from it
 
Y’all notice a deeper H5 look too? Damn temps tho. Many areas are closer at sfc and 850 but still not there.
 
deltadog03 said:
Y’all notice a deeper H5 look too? Damn temps tho. Many areas are closer at sfc and 850 but still not there.
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We really could have used that phase. But alas, no good ridge out west, no digging N/S shortwave, High scooting out too quickly, Storm moving in too late. Could have used that phase. Maybe next time. At least we'll get some good rain and hopefully remember that systems almost always trend north as we move in. Or correct north. Or get modeled more north or whatever the correct terminology is. Either way, I'm loving the beating the drought is taking.
 
Rain Cold said:
We really could have used that phase. But alas, no good ridge out west, no digging N/S shortwave, High scooting out too quickly, Storm moving in too late. Could have used that phase. Maybe next time. At least we'll get some good rain and hopefully remember that systems almost always trend north as we move in. Or correct north. Or get modeled more north or whatever the correct terminology is. Either way, I'm loving the beating the drought is taking.
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I agree!
 
deltadog03 said:
Y’all notice a deeper H5 look too? Damn temps tho. Many areas are closer at sfc and 850 but still not there.
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I mean the NAM and CMC are close here for snow at the beginning at least and I have 2 or 3 GEFS members, so what do I have to lose to hope for a few degrees colder?
 
deltadog03 said:
LOL nothing....What a great look at H5...
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Just one of many examples of how perfect the setup has to be for us in the SE.

In this case we have the storm track! Just missing the cold. Usually it is the other way around which is what makes this a pretty unique and rare system.

it’s not everyday you see a monster cutoff down in the gulf
 
If there always one thing that’s known about the SE, it’s that you typically get more WAA, but faster precip arrival, for example that light icing event that happened, precip arrived several hours earlier than expected, if this theme continues with this storm, areas in northern GA/upstate of SC/WNC may see some wet snowflakes or sleet pellets, ovr not much if any
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If there always one thing that’s known about the SE, it’s that you typically get more WAA, but faster precip arrival, for example that light icing event that happened, precip arrived several hours earlier than expected, if this theme continues with this storm, areas in northern GA/upstate of SC/WNC may see some wet snowflakes or sleet pellets, ovr not much if any
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If I see more than 5 minutes of flakes it's already better than last year lol.
 
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