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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Ilovesnow28
Member
Hey you never know it might just verify im in Tuscaloosa county so im just dreaming for a flake
That basically is from Mt. Cheaha down the Talladega County/Talladega national forest. Mt. Cheaha is only 2000 ft higher in ele. than me tho...Nam is still at it
Fear not Alabama the Nam is namming you too!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well the NAM really takes a ride if you look at the soundings. Starts as borderline snow, shifts out to rain with a strong 850 warm nose, the warm nose cools but is still sharp and surface to 925 is just at freezing so close to sleet, then it goes back to rain.
Those snow maps are wierd, most wintry precip is supported in WNC, NAM does show some ZR in western NC and some snow in the mountains
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm not sure how March 2010 went with that bowling ball, but looking back at the overall setup, it almost looks very similar except for the big high pressure location difference. Idk how the energy was set up or how we got cold air that time. Anyone have information that can shoot this idea down or relate it?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's hard to determine the true Ptype so I'd go with rate driven sloppy rain for here with that Kuchera of 3.
Very close for north GA at the start, looks like wet snow to me mixed with rain instead of all rain like the NAM shows 
NoSnowATL
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Here’s the thing, this will definitely have dynamics. NAM furthest north with energy but I could see pockets of “nearing” heavy wet snow. NAM will prob do a good job with sniffing out those pockets.
I would completely love that.
It's hard to determine the true Ptype so I'd go with rate driven sloppy rain for here with that Kuchera of 3.
If precip arrives earlier, some areas may see a burst of wet snow mixed with rain, as soon as precip begins it’s not gonna be light with intense lift/ strong 850mb Frontogenesis, and you can see that quick dynamical cooling in north GA, but also that WAA around which is one ingredient for precip, it’s close, if initial precip can be heavy and can drag down some colder air with heavy rates, it’s not out of the realm of possibility, there may be some quick pockets of heavy wet snow
March 2010 or March 2009?
I was prepared to be disappointed with a map error, but dang the NAM is seriously close to a crushing hit across East AL. Crazy and very unlikely, but would be awesome if the less than 1% possibility of it happens.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm pretty sure 2010 was the setup that gave me snow with 2009 missing me to the south but might as well compare 2009 too.
accu35
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I agree, doesn't these upper level lows hard to predict when regarding to temps? It wouldn't take 32 or below to get snow with a dynamic storm like this one. Nam had temps in Al/Ga in the mid to upper 30s with heavy convection band that showed snow.
After last year it would be only fitting for us to get a few flakes to fly this time.
The NAM is much colder aloft than the rest. If we see the other models trending colder, especially aloft the NAM may have credence.
NAM is extremely close to something in AL, in my opinion that’s wet snow/rain, just a little colder by like a few degrees and that’s a quick paste bomb, especially if rates are high, only issue is that the NAM has been to amped at times with things which contributes to colder air aloft 
Yeah, the NAM is way too amped. That said, the FV3 trended slightly colder at 850mb.
No scientific basis on this next thought, but if the 84hr NAM has that little teeny tiny pocket of frozen precip at the end of the run, you’re going to be disappointed come Sunday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS showing no rain north of I-20 is likely wrong & you can see the model is already adjusting consistently NWward as verification nears.
Same s***, different day.
Same s***, different day.
NoSnowATL
Member
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I'm interested to see how the models verification scores are over the next few days with regards to temperatures and this storm.
Fountainguy97
Member
Not everyday some of the coldest 850s are in Pensacola, FL ??
LovingGulfLows
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accu35
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Temps in the upper 30s into 40s with the heaviest rain bands.
I see the GFS is slowly shifting, correcting, sloshing north with precip shield as we get closer to verification time. Shocker
Question is also how cool (CAD) it will be. 12z NAM has our area staying in the upper 30s low 40s for the 22nd and 23rd (out to hour 84). It looks like the cool temps would extend into Christmas Eve as well. **better than 60 currently forecasted.
SimeonNC
Member
Is wet snow/sleet at the very beginning still a possibility or no.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not really. Temps were way too warm.
Maybe a sleet pellet but this CAD is retreating faster than JBs hairline so even sleet is unlikely
Woohoo tied for the strongest inland gust here at 50mph!
Euro is really getting some decent totals up our way. Can't believe the gfs is still near 0
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