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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

GaWx

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The models are nearly unanimous in having a strong and slow moving storm in the SE US 12/21-3. The major impact potential is for widespread heavy rains (as heavy as ~8" in a few spots), winds near 40 knots, especially NE GOM and near and just offshore the SE coast, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. There's even an outside chance this gets named as a subtropical storm in the Gulf.
 
Not much of a thing N of 20, but FL looks a little showery
 
Per Happy Hour GFS: a whopping 3-6" of rain covers most of the N 1/2 of FL and S 1/4 of GA with isolated lolipops to 10"! The adjacent SE coast is battered by several days straight of onshore winds, beach erosion, and likely coastal flooding at high tides.
 
Per Happy Hour GFS: a whopping 3-6" of rain covers most of the N 1/2 of FL and S 1/4 of GA with isolated lolipops to 10"! The adjacent SE coast is battered by several days straight of onshore winds, beach erosion, and likely coastal flooding at high tides.
The gfs will shift NW with rain totals as we get closer.
 
This is late but needless to say, I'd rather the GFS be right because...

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This area, and probably areas surrounding does not need that kind of rain. I'd actually probably argue that if it does get toward high totals, it's going to be a problem in lower lying areas. After today, the surrounding areas are going to be close to 5" recently.

Another inch or so would be fine though.

Edit: And if the pacific wasn't hostile, I'd welcome this precip for at least people living north of me.
 
I still feel like this one could hold some surprises. Why?. IDK. Lol. Honestly it will probably be just a cold rain, but check this out. It’s the 0z run from last night vs the 12z run vs the current 0z run. Notice how on each run it’s getting progressively colder. (6z and 18z runs no different). Another 3-5* and it could be those super heavy fat wet flakes. To be honest (if euro and gfs are right) his is an IDEAL track for us in mid GA. Time will tell, but I don’t think we have enough cold air.
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It’s worth noting that while the GFS does not have precip in these areas, soundings do support wet snow in WNC if you wet bulb (blue line) certainly a close call and why this thing can’t be written off yet8E4C0539-03B9-41D8-8A3C-CB58B3916218.pngFEB54758-8A71-460C-96DE-EC60BE5E328A.pngE6EB58BE-B255-4493-899A-7C5ABCC07BD2.png
 
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