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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

Euro is definitely an improvement over last night's run but the 850s are way too warm (+3-4C ish) certainly won't get the job done here if you're hoping for wet snow on this particular op run, sleet or ZR perhaps could be realized if areas wet bulb below freezing. Really need to see the 0z EPS
 
Wonder if this may produce severe weather in Florida, there gonna be in the warm sector with a intensifying surface low pressure system and 850 winds will start to crank
 
Eh gfs didn’t look impressed with any severe, and no wonder the gefs looks better, Atlantic Canada trough has been sliding west some these past few runs4E14CD19-1FA3-4C36-B9C5-AC76F17DE2B0.gif
 
Euro is definitely an improvement over last night's run but the 850s are way too warm (+3-4C ish) certainly won't get the job done here if you're hoping for wet snow on this particular op run, sleet or ZR perhaps could be realized if areas wet bulb below freezing. Really need to see the 0z EPS
What’s funny/sucks is euro and gfs both continue to cool down around here at 2m and 850. Still about 2-5 (top/down) too warm but it’s trying to get close. Really almost an ideal track around here. GFS a little bit better track.
 
It’s not a shift NW. It’s an expansion of the QPF field.
Probably a combination of the two, I can see the low actually verifying more NW then currently modeled by the GFS and I definitely can see a more expansive precip shield. TBH, since there is no cold air around, I'd rather it not come north at all.... I'd like to dry out.
 
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