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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

Based on my research this evening:

- The record wettest KCHS event for Dec and all of met winter back to 1938 is 6.94" , which was set 12/23-6/1941. This is in danger of being threatened per the last 4 GFS runs and last Euro! The 2nd wettest winter event is 5.96", set 2-15-7/1898. The 3rd wettest is 5.07" set 2/10/1940

- The record wettest KSAV event for Dec back to the 1870s is 7.48", which was set 12/20-23/2007. The 2nd wettest for Dec is 5.55" set 11/30-12/2/1896. The 3rd wettest is 4.49", set 12/9-13/1947. The 4th wettest is 3.99", set 12/23-4/1887. The 5th wettest is 3.76" set 12/9-10/1885. KSAV will have a good shot at a top 5 wettest Dec event.
 
Last night's 0z Euro run dumped a foot of rain near Charleston.

View attachment 28746

I'm on that very sharp cutoff on the northeast side of the precip. Shows greenville,nc getting .60 and any shift north increases totals quickly. Remaining hopeful the totals stay low here. Not sure there's any way Georgia and SC get out of this without quite a bit of heavy rain.
 
If only it were 15 or 20 degrees colder...

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Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

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Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century occurrence for a nontropical event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

View attachment 28762

Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?
 
Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?

No, the combo of 9” in 48 hours with strong onshore winds would cause major flooding on the peninsula where lowlying downtown CHS is located. Near high tides would be really bad. The only good news is that these high tides are not astronomically very high ones like spring/king tides. But that’s barely going to matter with these rainfall amounts and long lasting strong onshore winds.

*Edited
 
The less accurate CMC has 8” of rain from SAV to Beaufort, SC!
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It still looks downright awful for CHS per this 12Z Euro 48 hour QPF with 8”/record DJF heavy rain event with record being 6.94":
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Models backed down my precip again and have me very close to that northern edge. The guys along the gulf coast and SC gonna get a bunch of rain.
 
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