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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

SoutheastRidge said:
Are you disagreeing with a pro met who has been forecasting weather for 40 years?
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Blizzard 93 I think from what I've seen and heard was a triple phaser at least and the low was down in the 970s in South GA. pressure layout is entirely different too across the CONUS.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Blizzard 93 I think from what I've seen and heard was a triple phaser at least and the low was down in the 970s in South GA. pressure layout is entirely different too across the CONUS.
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Yea it was a triple P. The track was different, the pattern was different, temp aren’t close, and the MB on this storm is different. Besides that it’s really close.


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Yeah, this is nowhere close to "making a few tweaks" and it'll be like 1993.

I suppose your argument that you CAN make here though is if the Pacific hasn't blasted some of the cold air off the states and you had an -EPO/+PNA/-NAO, with those teleconnections not being so deep that you're dry, that you could see a very heavy snowstorm from a setup like this. I've read about it before, but I wonder with some of the storms of the past that poured a lot of snow over areas of the southeast, if it was similar, slower moving setups. It actually looks like that with some storms like Feb. 1973.

That Glenn Burns quote even caused me to go look at some reanalysis maps for a minute.
 
I don’t like disagreeing with a 40 year meteorologist, but I just don’t see how this compares at all to the ‘93 Superstorm. That was a system that at one stretched from deep in the western to Caribbean all the way to southeast Canada. Many areas along the Florida Gulf coasts had record storm surges that still stand today, and many cities set record low barometric pressure... including Charlotte which had a pressure a few MB lower than that of Hurricane Hugo as it crosses over. Not to mention the number of places across the south that had record snow followed by record cold.
 
And I thought I was being too hyperbolic by feeling that this storm is like a fall Noreaster, I don't know much about the storm of 93 but taking the snow out if the equation I feel like that storm was way stronger than this will end up being.

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This isn't the historically very strong storm of March, 1993, but that may easily not occur again in our lifetimes. But this is the still strong/high impact storm of Dec, 2019. Completely different animals. Even though this is not a "Storm of the Century" like was 1993, this one is still looking to be a humdinger of a storm in its own right, especially considering it isn't tropical. When was the last time there was a storm to last this long with this much QPF and wind over such a wide area with little or no tropical element? We know this isn't a 100+ year storm like 1993, but is this still a once in several year storm? Maybe a once in a decade? Maybe as much as a multidecadal storm in terms of max QPF as well as total QPF when considering total area covered? When was the last non-tropical storm as wet as this is projected? Any opinions?

Edit: I’m glad I got in a walk this overcast, breezy afternoon as tomorrow and quite possibly Monday will be rained out.

Edit 2: Also, what many inland members may not fully realize is that this looks to have a big impact on some of the SE coast in terms of 1) potential significant coastal flooding at high tides due to a combo of strong onshore winds and very heavy rains; and 2) beach erosion. I bet @Stormsfury and maybe also @Bham 99 are watching this aspect.
Again, this is not at all something seen often though one piece of good news is that we won’t have astronomically very high (spring) tides the next few days.
 
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Yea I got an opinion. Key word is projected. If rain comes in 1-3” less due to moisture robbing and winds never verify then it’s a dud. IMO.
 
Hrrr shows a low topped supercell fiesta in south Florida tommorow with skinny CAPE associated with a tropical airmass and backing SE winds at the surface B0513B64-FA4E-4264-BC71-8021B7F81368.png0BF85730-C717-411A-9E2C-722E669653D2.jpeg
 
Based on my research this evening:

- The record wettest KCHS event for Dec and all of met winter back to 1938 is 6.94" , which was set 12/23-6/1941. This is in danger of being threatened per the last 4 GFS runs and last Euro! The 2nd wettest winter event is 5.96", set 2-15-7/1898. The 3rd wettest is 5.07" set 2/10/1940

- The record wettest KSAV event for Dec back to the 1870s is 7.48", which was set 12/20-23/2007. The 2nd wettest for Dec is 5.55" set 11/30-12/2/1896. The 3rd wettest is 4.49", set 12/9-13/1947. The 4th wettest is 3.99", set 12/23-4/1887. The 5th wettest is 3.76" set 12/9-10/1885. KSAV will have a good shot at a top 5 wettest Dec event.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Last night's 0z Euro run dumped a foot of rain near Charleston.

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I'm on that very sharp cutoff on the northeast side of the precip. Shows greenville,nc getting .60 and any shift north increases totals quickly. Remaining hopeful the totals stay low here. Not sure there's any way Georgia and SC get out of this without quite a bit of heavy rain.
 
Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

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GaWx said:
Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!

Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!

Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century occurrence for a nontropical event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!

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Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?
 
KyloG said:
Dumb question but can CHS handle this amount of rain?
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No, the combo of 9” in 48 hours with strong onshore winds would cause major flooding on the peninsula where lowlying downtown CHS is located. Near high tides would be really bad. The only good news is that these high tides are not astronomically very high ones like spring/king tides. But that’s barely going to matter with these rainfall amounts and long lasting strong onshore winds.

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The less accurate CMC has 8” of rain from SAV to Beaufort, SC!
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It still looks downright awful for CHS per this 12Z Euro 48 hour QPF with 8”/record DJF heavy rain event with record being 6.94":
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Models backed down my precip again and have me very close to that northern edge. The guys along the gulf coast and SC gonna get a bunch of rain.
 
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