Another model run, 12Z GFS, with insanely high historic rainfall amounts in CHS area. This one has ~9”, which compares to the 6.94” highest DJF rainfall event on records, which go back to 1938!!
Even down at SAV, this 12Z GFS is no picnic, with 6.25”. That would be the 2nd wettest Dec event on record, lower only than the 7.48” of 12/20-3/2007!
Remember my post about this potentially being as bad as a once in multidecadal event but not to the once in a century level? A once in a century heavy rainfall occurrence for a DJF event may now have to be considered for somewhere in the SAV-CHS corridor, especially nearer to CHS!
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Wedge is king. LolWe all know that the wedge is often king and won't normally give up easily. Current temps and dewpoints in the CHS to SAV corridor are a good number of degrees colder than forecasted by the 12Z GFS/Euro. For example, the 12Z GFS has as of 4 PM KCHS at 56/53 with NE-9 winds and KSAV at 60/57 with E-11 winds. Compare those to the 4 PM actuals of 50/50 with NE-9 winds at KCHS and 53/52 with NE-13 winds at KSAV. So, KCHS is 6/3 colder than forecasted and KSAV is a whopping 7/5 colder than forecasted, has NE instead of E winds, and is even 3/1 colder than CHS was forecasted to be. Steady light to moderate rains continue here, but nothing heavy yet.
Leaving Daytwat is always nice ... especially if you're going under the river to Windsor ...Looks like I left for Detroit just in time. This would be nightmare weather for me (cold, wind-driven, stratiform rain).
Meanwhile, since up is now apparently down, it's been bright and sunny here which will continue tomorrow.
Leaving Daytwat is always nice ,,,
So far the Euro has been spot on.Rather unsurprisingly, the long range HRRR, NAM, & short range GFS absolutely sucked with this storm. Moderate rain is already encroaching on the Triangle
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