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Pattern Nippy November

Rain Cold said:
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.

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So i guess that means we got a ways to go before we get more favorable and thats why i asked eric what i did.:)
 
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Golf7575 said:
Webb, i have one question if you don't mind answering. Moving forward, which phases of the mjo promote a colder stormier pattern based on the Pacific sst's currently and moving forward? Hopefully i said it correctly lol.
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Basically West Pacific & Western Hemisphere (phases 7, 8, & 1). By the time the MJO reaches phase 3 (East Indian Ocean), this favorable pattern usually comes to a close. If we're going to see a storm, it would come on the back end of this -NAO regime (if one comes to pass) which puts us somewhere in the first or second week of Dec.
 
Rain Cold said:
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.

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We are just storing the cold air in Asia until mid Dec when we can actually do something with it.

E453C454-88DF-4AF1-B926-556788D1E18F.png
 
Webb, curious your thought on how this year is working out in comparison to last year? If any, what would be the changes going forward?

I’m also wondering if we have any good examples of winters with the similar pattern you mentioned in my reply above?

Excluding the MJO, as @Myfrotho704_ mentioned below.
 
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**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
 
KyloG said:
We are just storing the cold air in Asia until mid Dec when we can actually do something with it.

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Really hard for our cold to slosh into Europe, when it’s already there! So there is that! Feeling good about January, for a change!
 
deltadog03 said:
**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
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Last year at this time, we were only in phase 4 of the MJO, this year we’re already approaching phase 7, +IOD probably helping aswell and once it goes back to phase 8/1/2, looks like it may slow a bit
 
deltadog03 said:
**IF** the EURO is right in the MJO map that Webb posted a bit ago, then the phases 8, 1 and 2, that will be a very nice timing for once in winter. Also, if the mjo phase forecast is right, it actually curls into the COD on the left side...
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Chris, here is the thing. Would it be better to have the AAM neutral to positive once the mjo enters phases 8,1, and 2 or does it really matter?
 
As gefs has been consistently showing, these southern solutions are starting to show
namconus_asnow_seus_24.png
 
NAM really pushing qpf and snow high here. 3 inches on kuchera.

It’ll be a race to get down to 32 as the heavy precip moves through. Then NW flow will help with some fluffy stuff on the back side.

nam gives me a 3 hr period of light/moderate snow then more of NW flow showers.

I’d call that a good Tuesday morning
 
Fountainguy97 said:
NAM really pushing qpf and snow high here. 3 inches on kuchera.

It’ll be a race to get down to 32 as the heavy precip moves through. Then NW flow will help with some fluffy stuff on the back side.

nam gives me a 3 hr period of light/moderate snow then more of NW flow showers.

I’d call that a good Tuesday morning
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Yea you guys in Tennessee are looking good, north Alabama too.


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It’s funny that the NAM has been trending at wanting to nearly phase the NS energy and ULL near Mexico, probably the reason for a better response in moisture in southern Texas, likely to late for anything crazy to happen now tho 65B8CF06-453C-4776-9101-4A884BBF57CD.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s funny that the NAM has been trending at wanting to nearly phase the NS energy and ULL near Mexico, probably the reason for a better response in moisture in southern Texas, likely to late for anything crazy to happen now tho View attachment 25726
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yep any extra energy fed into the front will beef it up significantly.

still long range NAM though so could just be the NAM haha. I’m expecting some light snow showers at best right now.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I agree the gefs is picking up some solutions but the question becomes will it show for us in central parts of Alabama??? probably less likely i guess
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I mean, idk really but like others said it's only November, but given that we have an "January" artic air mass coming next week why not get something lol.
 
accu35 said:
I mean, idk really but like others said it's only November, but given that we have an "January" artic air mass coming next week why not get something lol.
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I agree but we didn't score at all or see any snowflake drop here in Tuscaloosa last winter... I just hope we at least get to see something regardless if its only november or any other months in the winter
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I agree but we didn't score at all or see any snowflake drop here in Tuscaloosa last winter... I just hope we at least get to see something regardless if its only november or any other months in the winter
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I understand, well hopefully we can see something. I'm really pushing this like I push my associates at work lol!!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s funny that the NAM has been trending at wanting to nearly phase the NS energy and ULL near Mexico, probably the reason for a better response in moisture in southern Texas, likely to late for anything crazy to happen now tho View attachment 25726
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I wouldn't call it a near phase per say, the frontal wave and the S/W are interacting with each other. You're right though, more interaction between the frontal wave and the S/W would mean higher moisture content. With this feature that you noted on, I would continue to monitor that for sure. If the moisture hangs around long enough in time for the colder air to reach far south, there could be some frozen precip nearly down to the Gulf coast.
 
Something has got my attention, I will be watching that wave that comes down through Montana that progresses south east. The frontal wave is going to interact with the S/W due to the wake of the front. Which, this will help weakly pull the S/W to the east . Now, the wave that moves south east from Montana could phase with the S/W which would transpire into a storm system. Would it be a winter storm system? Don't know, but I'm just pointing out what has my attention. Will be watching it this upcoming week. gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png
 
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WxWatch said:
Something has got my attention, I will be watching that wave that comes down through Montana that progress south east. The frontal wave is going to interact with the S/W due to the wake of the front. Which, this will help weakly pull the S/W to the east . Now, the wave that moves south east from Montana could phase with the S/W which would transpire into a storm system. Would it be a winter storm system? Don't know, but I'm just pointing out what has my attention. Will be watching it this upcoming week. View attachment 25730
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If it don’t happen by Wednesday, it’ll be all rain
 
WxWatch said:
Something has got my attention, I will be watching that wave that comes down through Montana that progress south east. The frontal wave is going to interact with the S/W due to the wake of the front. Which, this will help weakly pull the S/W to the east . Now, the wave that moves south east from Montana could phase with the S/W which would transpire into a storm system. Would it be a winter storm system? Don't know, but I'm just pointing out what has my attention. Will be watching it this upcoming week. View attachment 25730
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I've been watching that to. Gefs has been showing these southern solutions for the past few runs. Maybe this can go along with what your talking about
 
WxWatch said:
I don't think it will happen by Wednesday, if any storm system, it would occur sometime late next week or next weekend. If things turn out differently, that S/W could still turn out to be a winter storm. Another thing to watch for is that PV anomaly, the cold is actually going to "re-generate" and the cold could possibly move further south and east in time as the S/W moves in the southeast region. View attachment 25731
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I think he’s saying that If it shows rain on Wednesday or no precipitation, It’s probably going to be rain.


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