LovingGulfLows
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Well a lot of areas of the SE need rain anyways so even if it's not cold enough, this pattern will deliver something.
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Well a lot of areas of the SE need rain anyways so even if it's not cold enough, this pattern will deliver something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Split flow coupled w/ a deep Aleutian Low, +PNA, -NAO, & strong subtropical jet are heavily favored when the MJO is crossing from the Western Pacific to the Western Hemisphere, especially when there's an El Nino being superimposed on top of this favorable subseasonal forcing. Certainly looks at the very least seasonably cool & stormy around here.
pcbjr
Member
Bingo ... and so true ...
Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
Yet the models do the exact same thing in January. 9 out of 10 times, less snow and less cold as you move in.
pcbjr
Member
Going with gut on this one ...
... but in all honesty, I lost some money on UGA/UF on the same sort of analysis ...
It's a good pattern for not torching, but that's about it. Probably will be cool with occasional shower chances with the pattern displayed in the image you posted. I like a NH or N. AM view of an H5 map (as opposed to the anomaly map) to get a good idea of the patttern.Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Certainly possible. The last several El Ninos that weren't blowtorch warm in December (1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, & 2009-10) ended up producing at least one sizable event in Dec. If we stay at least around average or slightly below I think we stand a chance.
258 hours out, it's a guarantee that will change, you can put your money on it! Models are NOT a forecast.
Golf7575
Member
Rain cold, correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the pattern moving forward, it still wont be cold enough for winter weather events, despite a -nao, +pna, etc.
pcbjr
Member
Golf7575
Member
So that makes me wonder what phases of mjo would be more favorable for that scenario i mentioned earlier. Its all a blur to me and most people lol.
End of the GFS/GEFS, it’s not much but you can notice at 10mb that things are starting to get interesting with the PV, disruption maybe starting to develop, wouldn’t surprise me if the pattern flipped to blowtorch warm after the first week or so of December, than it gets real cold at the first week of January or after Christmas, but I could be wrong and probably am if that Aleutian low hangs around, really nice not seeing much of a Aleutian ridge/GOA ridge signal, it’s felt like forever TBH
pcbjr
Member
Have you somehow accessed and been looking in my private cache?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
There really isn't a ton of cold air being fluxed around the North American continent in the longer range, the deep Aleutian low effectively flushes the continent with mild, Pacific air (as is often the case in NINOs). Hydrostatically, the milder air masses = lower MSLP. This is the type of pattern that can produce around here in the heart of winter when our climo is at its coolest. If the -NAO is given enough time to hang around, we'll start injecting much cooler cP air masses into the fold via the Baffin Bay & Greenland, &/or have been given enough opportunities where a very deep east coast cyclone effectively is able to create its own cold air in-situ. One major positive is we won't have to worry about the SE US ridge for a while if this comes to fruition.
pcbjr
Member
You explain it so well, Webb ... I just smell it, as you say it, but unfortunatelay, that smell sense doesn't post ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Aleutian Low will probably persist at least into week 3 (1st week of Dec), given there's a huge positive East Asian Mountain Torque being forecast this upcoming week as a powerful area of high pressure descends from the Ural Mountains in western Russia & into China.
well it wouldn’t shock me if something appears in the SE that week, still that would be something
Golf7575
Member
Webb, i have one question if you don't mind answering. Moving forward, which phases of the mjo promote a colder stormier pattern based on the Pacific sst's currently and moving forward? Hopefully i said it correctly lol.
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.
