49 weather
Member
Long time lurker, will the gulf which is still very warm, have a surprise to add to the up coming pattern?
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Long time lurker, will the gulf which is still very warm, have a surprise to add to the up coming pattern?
There was a big southern snow on Nov 2-3, 1966 that produced a large swath of 5-10" in TN and KY. I think AL may have received some snow as well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely was an increase in the number of EPS members showing snow in NC over the next 10 days.
Support increased for the day 8 system w/ another disturbance around day 11 (again likely tied to when the wave over the SW US finally comes east).
Support increased for the day 8 system w/ another disturbance around day 11 (again likely tied to when the wave over the SW US finally comes east).
Downeastnc
Member
No that is 12Z Tues......so that is valid around 6-7am EST Tues morning.....daytime highs that cold that far south are really hard to pull off in Jan or Feb.....much less Nov.
MichaelJ
Member
While my memory is not as good as it used to be ( plus I was young), I moved to W-S in November of 1970 and the high around Thanksgiving was 25 and the low around 12 if I am remembering correctly. Had extreme cold anomalies at Savannah as well.
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A lot of suppression going on this morning with the models with the arctic air.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
What is W-S ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Winston-Salem
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hmmm, is the GFS trying to join the party? This is getting interesting for sure.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS is also trying to hint at something around day 10-11 w/ snow initially breaking out near San Antonio, but we're extremely far out & a lot can happen between now & then plus the GEFS isn't exactly dispersive.
LovingGulfLows
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I would have never imagined a model progging snow at the Mexico/Texas border in November. Even in January, you'd be like "Whaaaaa?". And this is the GEFS mean too, not the freaking FV3 GFS.
ICON looks different from way more NS interaction as it’s digging more south than the GLs this time 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not necessarily winter related but holy crap Halong is an absolute monster in the West Pac. Satellite intensity estimates nearly support a 200 mph cane.
This monster typhoon will be a significant player in our weather pattern next week & could affect our chances of wintry weather beyond day 7 (if a storm actually materializes). I hope you like a +PNA.
This monster typhoon will be a significant player in our weather pattern next week & could affect our chances of wintry weather beyond day 7 (if a storm actually materializes). I hope you like a +PNA.
Ethan80963!
Member
Stronger energy on 12z GFS kinda looks like 00z ICON
12z GFS
00z ICON
12z GFS
00z ICON
The ICON looks a lot like the storm we got in December 2017, comparison from the Euro model 1.5 days out at H5. Almost identical, however less emphasis on the southern energy this run because of a weaker +PNA. However, I think as Webb mentioned on twitter, because of the recurving typhoon, our +PNA should strengthen even more in the short term, if models haven't spotted this yet.
GFS Speeding up And beefing up that ULL a bit 
Yeah not far, western ridge was pretty tall there, this run of the gfs actually trended to a little bit stronger ridge out west
It’s an absolutely gorgeous day today 
Ethan80963!
Member
Last 4 GFS runs
The energy doesn't phase completely, however with the NW trend on the GFS, we shall see at 18z.