NWMSGuy
Member
That’s pretty?Big improvement on the 18z
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
High elevations along the TN/NC border as well as favored areas in TN are most likely to see snow. Outside of there, tread lightly. A lot of that frontal stuff is a mirage more times than not. Good luck though. I’m a bit salty bc I’m not in the game.
Some of these central MS/AL keeps ticking up.
Yep, decent support for y’all, especially in the northern SE, and in NC some members bullseye CLT or near Raleigh, those are probably some members that throw some moisture back into colder air a bit with weak energy on the base of the trof
Those members have been consistent, well be interesting when the time range gets within the short range NAM and HRRR.These members are a bit juicy
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
18z Euro is not nothing, but much less than 12z
pcbjr
Member
Folks (Not Ollie) ... give it a rest ... it is November 9th, not January ...18z Euro is not nothing, but much less than 12z
It’s never a bad thing to have fun tracking a system, even if it’s a failure waiting to happen or it’s to early/late
pcbjr
Member
Tracking a system, yes; tracking a model output based on GIGO ... ???? ... modernweenie
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Long range GEFS finally starting to pick up on the -NAO that may be forthcoming near the end of the month (as I noted a few days ago).
Certainly not the coolest pattern by any means, but undoubtedly stormy.
Certainly not the coolest pattern by any means, but undoubtedly stormy.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
Phil, all due respect this excites me and there's nothing else to track, lol.
At least its better than tracking 95 degrees with 70 degree dewpoints, lol ?
pcbjr
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Also take note of the split flow in the Eastern Pacific w/ a juiced subtropical jet slamming into the southwestern US. We might get something legit out of this pattern by early Dec if we play our cards right.
pcbjr
Member
No argument there, my friend ...
Been noticing split flow appearing on the ensembles lately at the longer range, anyways I’d gladly take that pattern to end out November, it at least increases the shot of a miller A by a bit
Jessy89
Member
Expect a threat in early December. The last two years says hello!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
Well a lot of areas of the SE need rain anyways so even if it's not cold enough, this pattern will deliver something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Split flow coupled w/ a deep Aleutian Low, +PNA, -NAO, & strong subtropical jet are heavily favored when the MJO is crossing from the Western Pacific to the Western Hemisphere, especially when there's an El Nino being superimposed on top of this favorable subseasonal forcing. Certainly looks at the very least seasonably cool & stormy around here.
pcbjr
Member
Bingo ... and so true ...
Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
Yet the models do the exact same thing in January. 9 out of 10 times, less snow and less cold as you move in.
pcbjr
Member
Going with gut on this one ...
... but in all honesty, I lost some money on UGA/UF on the same sort of analysis ...
It's a good pattern for not torching, but that's about it. Probably will be cool with occasional shower chances with the pattern displayed in the image you posted. I like a NH or N. AM view of an H5 map (as opposed to the anomaly map) to get a good idea of the patttern.Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Certainly possible. The last several El Ninos that weren't blowtorch warm in December (1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, & 2009-10) ended up producing at least one sizable event in Dec. If we stay at least around average or slightly below I think we stand a chance.
258 hours out, it's a guarantee that will change, you can put your money on it! Models are NOT a forecast.
Golf7575
Member
Rain cold, correct me if I'm wrong, but even with the pattern moving forward, it still wont be cold enough for winter weather events, despite a -nao, +pna, etc.
pcbjr
Member
Golf7575
Member
So that makes me wonder what phases of mjo would be more favorable for that scenario i mentioned earlier. Its all a blur to me and most people lol.
End of the GFS/GEFS, it’s not much but you can notice at 10mb that things are starting to get interesting with the PV, disruption maybe starting to develop, wouldn’t surprise me if the pattern flipped to blowtorch warm after the first week or so of December, than it gets real cold at the first week of January or after Christmas, but I could be wrong and probably am if that Aleutian low hangs around, really nice not seeing much of a Aleutian ridge/GOA ridge signal, it’s felt like forever TBH
pcbjr
Member
Have you somehow accessed and been looking in my private cache?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webb, or somebody who can answer this, why is it that even with a "decent" pattern at H5. Why is it that there are very little high MSLP heights as we go into the mid-range, taking verbatim from the GEFS?
There really isn't a ton of cold air being fluxed around the North American continent in the longer range, the deep Aleutian low effectively flushes the continent with mild, Pacific air (as is often the case in NINOs). Hydrostatically, the milder air masses = lower MSLP. This is the type of pattern that can produce around here in the heart of winter when our climo is at its coolest. If the -NAO is given enough time to hang around, we'll start injecting much cooler cP air masses into the fold via the Baffin Bay & Greenland, &/or have been given enough opportunities where a very deep east coast cyclone effectively is able to create its own cold air in-situ. One major positive is we won't have to worry about the SE US ridge for a while if this comes to fruition.
pcbjr
Member
You explain it so well, Webb ... I just smell it, as you say it, but unfortunatelay, that smell sense doesn't post ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Aleutian Low will probably persist at least into week 3 (1st week of Dec), given there's a huge positive East Asian Mountain Torque being forecast this upcoming week as a powerful area of high pressure descends from the Ural Mountains in western Russia & into China.
well it wouldn’t shock me if something appears in the SE that week, still that would be something
Golf7575
Member
Webb, i have one question if you don't mind answering. Moving forward, which phases of the mjo promote a colder stormier pattern based on the Pacific sst's currently and moving forward? Hopefully i said it correctly lol.
Right. And I don't see more than a slightly positive PNA and a slightly negative NAO. Below is a 240 hr H5 height map, a H5 anomaly map and a 384 hr anomaly map. You essentially have your choice of crappy models nowadays, so I chose the 18z GEFS. You can see the mean doesn't display a strong west coast ridge signal or a strong ridge or block at or around Greenland or eastern Canada. Heights essentially appear to be close to normal over the Conus. I imagine in reality, you'll get semi-frequent systems moving through and seasonable temps. There's certainly no indication on any of these maps of any sort of buckling of the flow, leading to a deep intrusion of arctic air, which would support an anomalous November winter storm in the South/Southeast.
