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Pattern Nippy November

Webberweather53 said:
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
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GEFS kinda improving if we want that scenario to pan out with the shortwave speeding up, still has a lot of work to do and were starting to run lower on time, but anything is possible gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh108_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
??

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Why would we shoot the messenger? That is good news! :) I'd be happy to see a -NAO develop late November and persist into December. There are several things already which seem different from last year, heading into the winter season. Anything different is good, as Phil Conners might say.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS kinda improving if we want that scenario to pan out with the shortwave speeding up, still has a lot of work to do and were starting to run lower on time, but anything is possible View attachment 25627
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These waves tend to take longer to eject than the models foretell. I don't know why that is the case, but it's usually the opposite of what we need. We see it time and again. It's possible it kicks out, but it seems unlikely to me. Would be nice to see the northern stream slow down to match. But it usually speeds up and the cold moves out before the southern wave gets in. I wonder if it's because there is so much more of an energetic flow up north (less so south)?
 
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Rain Cold said:
Why would we shoot the messenger? That is good news! :) I'd be happy to see a -NAO develop late November and persist into December. There are several things already which seem different from last year, heading into the winter season. Anything different is good, as Phil Conners might say.
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Virtually all of the large-scale signs are there for a -NAO the last week of the month and I don't expect NWP models to capture one until we're within a week or so of it actually verifying (if one actually transpires). Reason being, -NAOs develop in-situ & are driven by synoptic-scale events that aren't predictable at subseasonal timescales (few-several weeks), although their PDF is certainly influenced by subseasonal variability. The best thing you can do at this juncture is just use the large-scale background conditions to forecast their likelihood.
 
You see, I thought the arctic front was going to stall and then there would be a surface low developing (suppressed wave) on the tail end of the stalled front to allow an overrunning event (frontal system) That's not the case now. The arctic front makes it past FL (the front will not stall.)
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I get the optimism, I do, but how often do we trend colder inside 200 hours turning a would be rainstorm into a board wide thrashing?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I get the optimism, I do, but how often do we trend colder inside 200 hours turning a would be rainstorm into a board wide thrashing?
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Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
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To be fair we are almost on the same path as last year. Last year looked cold that’s why some many forecasted it,maybe it was just a year off.


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