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Pattern Nippy November

Definitely don't go to sleep on the 2nd system a little later next week, if we can tweak the timing of the s/w over the SW US just a bit (i.e. faster), we could be staring down the pipe of a big CAD event.

Fresh snow cover near and to our north from the arctic frontal passage on Tuesday is definitely going to help reinforce the sprawling surface high over New England.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_27.png
 
Just came home from work but as Webb was mentioning, I wouldn't go to sleep on this second storm. I believe places in Alabama/Ga and further east can definitely see something out of this. From a onsets to Cads. Second run in a row to have accumulation. If temps were couple I mean a couple degrees down, than this could be big.
gfs_asnow_seus_34.png
 
Shawn said:
Euro has a great system and track for many if it weren't for the time of year. #rain
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I agree, but a couple of degrees colder and it will get interesting. As webb said, dont sleep on this one
 
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_108.png
Lol, 0z gefs looks better than 18z with the members.
 
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
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Seems to me that IF we could the the Thursday event sped up by 12-24 hours, it would have the chance to be a more significant event! The high is already off the coast of NY and will be a stale cold at that point and no matter how strong the high will be, it’s still only November
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seems to me that IF we could the the Thursday event sped up by 12-24 hours, it would have the chance to be a more significant event! The high is already off the coast of NY and will be a stale cold at that point and no matter how strong the high will be, it’s still only November
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We basically need the first event to slow down and the 2nd one to speed up and that would open up the possibility of a big storm. Odds of that happening atm are probably no greater than 5-10% but it's a solution that isn't entirely off the table just yet.
 
BHS1975 said:
Looks like the euro is bombing it it out off the NC coast with no cold air in sight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's a pretty close call verbatim with temps in the upper 30s during the height of the event, a little better timing w/ the preceding arctic outbreak (i.e. faster) could make things interesting in a hurry.
 
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