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Pattern Nippy November

18Z GFS gives me a high of 80º and a low of 40º over the run ... right on target and right on schedule ... working like a Swiss watch ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
 
Hi guys. I think the -pna is and will hurt us for a while. Im assuming its related to the mjo going into unfavorable phases is my guess. Maybe someone can chime in and let us know if thats true or not. Its always a safe bet to focus on euro and eps with teleconnections most of the time, but not all the time.
 
On the 18z GFS, the apocalyptic rainmageddon Thanksgiving storm, doesn’t even exist anymore, not a drop of rain on Thursday in the Carolinas! What a horrible model!
 
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pcbjr said:
18Z GFS gives me a high of 80º and a low of 40º over the run ... right on target and right on schedule ... working like a Swiss watch ...
... now to set Little Ben and get up at quarter to 5:00 ...
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I love N. Florida and with temps like that this time of the year, it makes for a great place to live. Actually, 40° is a little chilly for the Sunshine state this early, but still very pleasant.
 
Interesting.. ?, while the gfs showed a interesting setup at hour 300 (yes hour 300 so it’s unlikely) with a sheared wave in the gulf, that look at H5 really matches its own ensemble with that -EPO, something to watch if your looking for a early season winter storm setup, but ofc this is long range so it will change 90688882-F3BD-495D-8CD2-E18F7DEE9B3F.jpegDB677A0B-CD29-45F5-9240-EE292256E83B.jpeg8D161223-9698-43FF-B760-484158A1D338.jpeg
 
This message is for Ollie. Do you think mid December on will be our best opportunity for a more favorable pattern for cold and snow/ice? Just wondering buddy.
 
The first 1-2 weeks of December has been good the last two years. Therefore that timeframe is worth watching.


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Golf7575 said:
This message is for Ollie. Do you think mid December on will be our best opportunity for a more favorable pattern for cold and snow/ice? Just wondering buddy.
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For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything

I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below
71e4a428952739a4a4b29e642b0ad295.jpg

GFS
220c9b5f8a8de14aca490b0aada1ff15.jpg

The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.

I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.

Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.


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If I lived along or north of a line from okc to dc I would be pumped for the first 2 weeks of December. I still think there is a window where we could see something sneak into our region but areas just to our north look like they could do well in what might become a gradient pattern

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Rick said:
Hello what's the severe threat looking like next week before and after Thanksgiving?
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SPC forecasts out to 8 days now. Currently chance is too low to discuss at this range per their discussion.
 
Ollie Williams said:
For the first week of December the MJO looks to have no real effect, so I don’t think that would have any real drive, but early indications point it to going into the colder phases in the LR, but don’t expect anything

I do find most Interesting, is the modeled setup in the Eastern pacific oscillation (EPO) and it’s potential to go into the negative phases, seen below
71e4a428952739a4a4b29e642b0ad295.jpg

GFS
220c9b5f8a8de14aca490b0aada1ff15.jpg

The only problem, I can see is if that High over Alaska moves too far west, a -PNA may form, forcing HP over the east. It’s not too far off from giving us a SER.

I think the pattern still bears watching, you live in Arkansas, so luckily you have a decent taking verbatim from the GEFS. Luckily, Believe it or not, we need the SER to come in so It can ever so slightly bring wintery energy from the north into the south. Otherwise the storm will stay north . We typically need a +PNA, but It’s more so a pattern for cold than snow.

Bottom line: if you’re hoping for snow, you probably will have to deal the the SER, with any hopes of getting suppression. If you like cold, Hug the GEFS for now. I wouldn’t get too excited about snow though. It’s not as big a signal as last December was.


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We can always sneak in a good CAD setup with a -EPO. Maybe an ice threat before we look at snow towards January?
 
Precip totals for tonight and tomorrow doubled on modeling last night! GSP @ 1.58” now!??
 
SD said:
If I lived along or north of a line from okc to dc I would be pumped for the first 2 weeks of December. I still think there is a window where we could see something sneak into our region but areas just to our north look like they could do well in what might become a gradient pattern

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This is a weak mean and way out there on the EPS but when you look at the members there certainly does appear to be a storm signal around the 1st week of Dec. Several members to me have that "battle line" overrunning type scenario you see with a gradient pattern you mentioned. Just how far south can it penetrate...

1574428954158.png
 
ajr said:
Way out there, but ~Dec 5 has been looking interesting on the GFS on some recent runs
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Actually a few EPS members look somewhat interesting for that time period as well and the control is posted below but it is way out there and there could be colder solutions, warmer solutions or no solutions... lol

1574429143116.png
 
metwannabe said:
Actually a few EPS members look somewhat interesting for that time period as well and the control is posted below but it is way out there and there could be colder solutions, warmer solutions or no solutions... lol

View attachment 26311
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Even if a storm in the time period doesn’t bring winter weather the the southeast, it would be nice to see a good snow pack start to build up in the Ohio Valley and Northeast to help solidify cold air masses the closer we get to peak climo. That’s something that’s been missing for a few years now with how mild Decembers have been recently in the east
 
Weird day, mid 60s with thick gray clouds all day, cool but humid as heck, you can smell the rain for sure. 1-2 inches of rain tomorrow. All the leaves should be knocked down.


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They sure look similar...sure hope the next 3 months evolve differently though.

EA671DBD-5644-4BAF-BA0F-CE32E84975C4.gif1E37B0EA-D7B4-4C9C-AA72-186AE31A9818.gif
 
It hasn’t rained like today , in about 6 months! It’s great ! 39DD9A7D-DCFA-401F-9811-89ACA29051B3.png
 
We’ve got some flooding issues here in Greenville. Not sure why weather advisories weren’t hoisted. It’s actually pretty bad. Terrible driving conditions. My yard is flooded above the gutter spouts. Most rain I’ve seen here in years
 
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