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Pattern Nippy November

Rain Cold said:
I honestly think it's been so long since we've had a good old fashioned cold and snowy winter, we've forgotten what a really legitimate winter storm pattern looks like. This upcoming junk looks every bit like what we've been dealing with over the last couple of years.

At least it is going to get anomalously cold for a short time. That's something real to enjoy. Hopefully, the ensuing warm-up won't be one of those 3 yards and a cloud of dust-type of drives that eats all of December's time off the clock.
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Bingo! But I echo myself ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z EPS is forecasting Charlotte to smash its previous record low max temp next Wed w/ a mean in the upper 30s. If this ended up verifying, it would also be the earliest sub-40F day in the season on record in Charlotte. Notice on the box & whisker plot that well over 75% of the EPS members are forecasting Charlotte to set a new record low max on Wed the 12th.
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Given the magnitude of unusually early dry cold air I think many will see their first wintry precip (sleet to rain) onset. Foothills counties and even further south-west into Georgia if timing works out. Perhaps further east to Charlotte? Idk.
 
So I'm guessing gfs OP is all alone with the suppression? These members are solid
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Fountainguy97 said:
Gfs trending much slower with the S piece and faster with N piece. Not what you want to seeZ.View attachment 25601
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This is the idea GFS had at longer range (of course, not a carbon copy) when the Icon was ejecting it out quickly. I thought the GFS was onto the right idea.. it's just hard to tell because the FV3 isn't exactly, figured out yet. The higher resolution Euro used to (may still) suffer from holding those cut offs back there too long.. the FV3's increased resolution could be doing the same.

The old GFS was a bit too quick with the Northern Stream most of the time, so this is a learning experience I guess to see.
 
Well I got close to my 2in as advertised. Also Had some thunder and lightening, does that mean snow within 10 days.....:p
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The GFS routinely over strengthens high pressure systems and pushes them too far south and east and ejects southern stream energy much too fast at long leads. Anyone trying to use the model that far out, needs to autocorrect for those biases.
 
Nice night tonight so far, warm enough to have the windows open and you can hear the rain, gonna be another nice, soaking rain.
 
Hmm honestly what looks more interesting is the possibility of maybe some over running event after we get this cold air in ... cold air does like to sit and hang around a bit longer than usual and models usually miss that.. Gfs much faster in bringing in precip from storm two as well
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Hmm honestly what looks more interesting is the possibility of maybe some over running event after we get this cold air in ... cold air does like to sit and hang around a bit longer than usual and models usually miss that.. Gfs much faster in bringing in precip from storm two as well
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Not saying something will come of it but it’s got more legs than this first system I believe
 
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