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Nippy November

pcbjr

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#4
Taking a blend of every "respectable" model out to 16, looks as though seasonal may be in the cards for early November, and if so, who can complain, and if we went at least seasonal for an entire November through March it would be such a win, such a reversal ... glass is perpetually half full down this away ... ;)
 
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#5
I could go for "Normal November" myself...actually thought about starting the monthly thread with that name...yeah I know boring :} but it would mean some nice weather for all of us.

Maybe I'll see if I have some juju later on when we're actually in winter. We'll see how I feel.
 

Sleet City USA

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#6
I could go for "Normal November" myself...actually thought about starting the monthly thread with that name...yeah I know boring :} but it would mean some nice weather for all of us.

Maybe I'll see if I have some juju later on when we're actually in winter. We'll see how I feel.
I thought about naming it neutral or normal as well lol
 
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#8
Interestingly, unlike most other months, November has not been dominated by record-breaking warmth for the SE this decade for the most part. March is similar. If only we could get BN temperatures when they actually matter, and not when BN temps is too warm for snow.

1572020907165.png
 

Arcc

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#9
GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement in the mid range with ridge out west and a strong ridge building in over Greenland. We will just have to see if it has staying power or will the western ridge slide westward again and allow the trough to dig across the west coast again.
 
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#17
Deeper Fall anyway. No one, except maybe Central Florida and south, can say Fall hasn't presented itself after that horrid, extended Summer hell into Week one of October.
 
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#21
My two major differences between this fall and other recent falls are it anomalously hitting 100 multiple times earlier in October for several of us and the first true bottom falling out snap is going to be in November instead of October. Getting later. Worrisome, ain't it?

Would say the GFS even attempted to try to broadcast it bottoming out earlier but I think it more swung and missed badly on that weekend system.
 

GaWx

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#27
View attachment 24973
GFS, even though it has been terrible with the timing of this front, is really starting to speed it up now. Hopefully this continues. Euro sped it up a tad also.
Odds are that the GFS will trend back slower with the cold front soon. When an often too progressive/cold biased model goes faster with a cold front 5 runs in a row, it is going to be kind of hard for it not to come back slower at some point within the subsequent few runs. Let’s see what happens. It may or may not be slower with the next run or two, but I’d bet it will by 0Z tonight. If this were not a model with tendencies to be too progressive, I wouldn’t have posted this.
 
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#28
Odds are that the GFS will trend back slower with the cold front soon. When an often too progressive/cold biased model goes faster with a cold front 5 runs in a row, it is going to be kind of hard for it not to come back slower at some point within the subsequent few runs. Let’s see what happens. It may or may not be slower with the next run or two, but I’d bet it will by 0Z tonight.
Makes sense, something to definitely watch for sure. Those are pretty large shifts also, so I wouldn't be surprised if it at least evens out in the coming runs.
 
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