I'm with you dude. Rooting hard for that speed-up
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Some places gonna have to update the Halloween wardrobe as the night progresses, some of us just gonna sweat....
That App state game might get a little chilly near the end too
That App state game might get a little chilly near the end too
If that cold front can blast through during the game that gon get interesting real quick, Euro showing some 50 plus mph gust....
How on earth do I dress for that? high 50s at kick, then cooling off to the low-mid 40s or so by fourth quarter. Oh, not to mention gusts of 35+ (euro usually overdoes wind, correct?) AND dumping rain.
Usually yes BUT it's closest to being correct when strong fronts are plowing through and you have elevation at the game to help you out, so 30-40 mph gust probably a good bet. Again totally dependent upon timing as far as the game goes
well I'll continue to root for the speed-up then. I'd rather wind and rain pregame
Many folks are going to like the 12Z EPS for 11/7-11 better than the 0Z because it is colder in the E 1/3 of the US and has legit moderately colder than normal even in the SE after being solidly colder than normal 11/1-4.
pcbjr
Member
Wanna post a happy greeting card ...
@metwannabe mind posting the euro wind maps for the frontal passage?
I'll repost this in the Archive thread but, the Euro has Its first run mean with snow into the SE. Definitely skewed by member #5, in fact, that's the only member with anything but still, Interesting pattern as we go-ahead into mid-November... for cold rain.
Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
Last edited:
Golf7575
Member
Ollie, imo, i think our main issue will be if the PV gets real strong and it will take a big SSW event to break it down. That's why i have been saying it will be from the Pacific if we get cold this winter.I'll repost this in the Archive thread but, the Euro has Its first run mean with snow into the SE. Definitely skewed by member #5, in fact, that's the only member with anything but still, Interesting pattern as we go-ahead into mid-November... for cold rain.
View attachment 24995
Believe It or notI'll repost this in the Archive thread but, the Euro has Its first run mean with snow into the SE. Definitely skewed by member #5, in fact, that's the only member with anything but still, Interesting pattern as we go-ahead into mid-November... for cold rain.
View attachment 24995
10/28 18z
Today marks the first day of the GEFS mean not being 0 over central NC, at least by the College of Dupage ensemble algorithm, It's free: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/.
After Weatherbell upgraded their site, they added a new algorithm that perfectly deviates between snow and sleet and actually uses a better mean algorithm altogether.
Wxbell
COD
Members For some #11 is the best we've had all season
NCSNOW
Member
Yep thats our best bet. I aint worried about me. Sat through every kind of wx possible up there before with the exception of heat lol. See what tonights runs yield. This is like trying to get precip in here before sunrise/ sun-angle in the winter.
Just saw this.... here ya go but probably post game, maybe, all about timing. Looks fun
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Close! Look at that wedge!!
If precip were to go over those CAD areas it would most likely be a big sleet freezing rain event ..... those few points are low ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we could have this pattern reappear in another month or so...
The Euro Control is on board with something...
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
Euro says it could be fun...
Again post game but who knows y'all might squeeze out a flurry before it's over
Yeah #24 is a thing of beauty..... remind me again why we're looking for winter weather in November? LolThe Euro Control is on board with something...
Mean
#24 is the most bullish, definitely takes the cake
The trend is definitely towards early winter storms the last 2 winters so maybe its not so crazy to think a November snow is possible.
whatalife
Moderator
Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Just don't look at the 6z GFS. It reverts back to the theme of, you guessed it, our repeating pattern of the SE ridge and SW trough, after the the Halloween front until the uber long range, at which point it taunts us with a favorable pattern. I am going all in with that forecast until we break this pattern for good.Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ethan80963!
Member
Mean
Oh yeah I agree.... was just being ornery this morning Lol. In fact I was about to reply to @SoutheastRidge with just what you said, it's really not too crazy to think it could happen, like you said it's happened before. And honestly with the way winters are crapping out early around here maybe we need to hope for a Nov or Dec storm, get it while you can.Because we haven’t anything better to do and November snow does happen. I had 4.5” of snow on Nov 1st 2014. But then again I have been paying for it ever since. #nomeasurablesince
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We've got a nice pattern, through Mid-November through early December. We might as well start talking now because we probably won't mid-winter. as @whatalife mentioned we got nothing better to do. Lol
Bannerdude
Member
This is by no means justification for a single ensemble member 300+ hours out, but frozen precipitation is not unheard of, especially as we get into mid-November in central NC. Historical records at RDU are below:
Yeah but it's transient so hopefully not the permanent fixture it has been and steps in beating it back as Winter approaches....
Actually the EPS and GEFS both agree things could get interesting in Mid month.... long ways out but it is fun to see this early
Makes me wanna stay up after the game lol. I think the house we're staying at is above the city itself so greater chance there
Ethan80963!
Member
HSV, RDU, CLT, SPA (Spartanburg)
FWIW 12z NAM faster with the front than GFS (as it was at 6z)
For the US as a whole: yesterday's 12Z EPS was colder than yesterday's 0Z. And now today's 0Z is even colder than yesterday's 12Z. Also, the GEFS run have generally been trending colder overall. Keeping this all in mind:
From Maxar this morning:
"Today’s 1-15 Day forecast gained +21.5 GWHDDs versus yesterday’s, a majority (+17.6) of which takes place on Days 10-15. These changes are generally in line with large gains within the models, with 0z Ensemble changes of +12.2 (ECMWF) and +14.2 (GFS) versus yesterday’s 0z runs for the current Days 10-14. Though model gains were in step with each other, there remains a large difference between the modeled intensity of cold in the 11-15 Day with the GFS (119.5) yielding 19 more GWHDDs than the Euro (100.5), and our forecast coming in between at 105.3. Our 1-15 Day forecast of 281.4 GWHDDs ranks 7th-coldest for the Oct 29-Nov 12 period since 1950, and would be normal for Nov 9-23. Our 11-15 Day forecast would be closer to normal for Nov 20-24, while the GFS Ensemble projection would be normal for Nov 28-Dec 2."
From Maxar this morning:
"Today’s 1-15 Day forecast gained +21.5 GWHDDs versus yesterday’s, a majority (+17.6) of which takes place on Days 10-15. These changes are generally in line with large gains within the models, with 0z Ensemble changes of +12.2 (ECMWF) and +14.2 (GFS) versus yesterday’s 0z runs for the current Days 10-14. Though model gains were in step with each other, there remains a large difference between the modeled intensity of cold in the 11-15 Day with the GFS (119.5) yielding 19 more GWHDDs than the Euro (100.5), and our forecast coming in between at 105.3. Our 1-15 Day forecast of 281.4 GWHDDs ranks 7th-coldest for the Oct 29-Nov 12 period since 1950, and would be normal for Nov 9-23. Our 11-15 Day forecast would be closer to normal for Nov 20-24, while the GFS Ensemble projection would be normal for Nov 28-Dec 2."
NCSNOW
Member
Well be in a cabin the last home game , weekend before turkey day. Knowing my luck itll monsoon all game then flip to flakes as I head down the mtn. Really gonna be tough throwing the ball on this weather. Big advantage to them unfortunately
Fountainguy97
Member
Chasing those first mountain flurries. Maybe a brief NW enhancement on the backside of this cold front can bring the first flurries of the year. Doubt I see any down here around 2000FT but maybe those higher peaks 3500+ will get a white dusting!
