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Pattern Nippy November

metwannabe said:
Oh yeah I agree.... was just being ornery this morning Lol. In fact I was about to reply to @SoutheastRidge with just what you said, it's really not too crazy to think it could happen, like you said it's happened before. And honestly with the way winters are crapping out early around here maybe we need to hope for a Nov or Dec storm, get it while you can.
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Yeh it would be wild if we got another winter storm in that Dec 6th-9th range for the 3rd year in a row...
 
Robert West said:
Good call, GFS did indeed slow the front back down. Was hoping the trend would continue.
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Thanks. But as metwannabe implied, yesterday's 12Z GFS didn't have much of a slow down. Furthermore, the subsequent 2 runs restarted the faster progression trend with today's 0 the fastest yet. Then the 6Z and now the 12Z backtracked to the point that today's 12Z is near yesterday's 12Z.
 
GaWx said:
For the US as a whole: yesterday's 12Z EPS was colder than yesterday's 0Z. And now today's 0Z is even colder than yesterday's 12Z. Also, the GEFS run have generally been trending colder overall. Keeping this all in mind:

From Maxar this morning:

"Today’s 1-15 Day forecast gained +21.5 GWHDDs versus yesterday’s, a majority (+17.6) of which takes place on Days 10-15. These changes are generally in line with large gains within the models, with 0z Ensemble changes of +12.2 (ECMWF) and +14.2 (GFS) versus yesterday’s 0z runs for the current Days 10-14. Though model gains were in step with each other, there remains a large difference between the modeled intensity of cold in the 11-15 Day with the GFS (119.5) yielding 19 more GWHDDs than the Euro (100.5), and our forecast coming in between at 105.3. Our 1-15 Day forecast of 281.4 GWHDDs ranks 7th-coldest for the Oct 29-Nov 12 period since 1950, and would be normal for Nov 9-23. Our 11-15 Day forecast would be closer to normal for Nov 20-24, while the GFS Ensemble projection would be normal for Nov 28-Dec 2."
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Gawx, did maxar do well with last winters forecast or did they bust hard like most?
 
Golf7575 said:
Gawx, did maxar do well with last winters forecast or did they bust hard like most?
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They busted pretty hard in much of the US including the SE, where they had near to very slightly warmer than normal (which is close to what they have again in the SE).
 
Sleet City USA said:
NAM has consistently been the fastest. The ICON is in agreement and has been for several runs now. GFS has slowed a touch if anything

@metwannabe if you wouldn't mind posting the ecmwf maps for Thu night when they become available
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Lets see how it shakes out. Still time to get a hour or 2 speed up (60hrs out). Maybe Gawx or someone with hourly Euro graphics can look at 0z 11/1 at the NW corner of NC and chime in.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Chasing those first mountain flurries. Maybe a brief NW enhancement on the backside of this cold front can bring the first flurries of the year. Doubt I see any down here around 2000FT but maybe those higher peaks 3500+ will get a white dusting!

View attachment 25035
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Well snowshoe already seen there first snow couple weeks ago
 
NCSNOW said:
Lets see how it shakes out. Still time to get a hour or 2 speed up (60hrs out). Maybe Gawx or someone with hourly Euro graphics can look at 0z 11/1 at the NW corner of NC and chime in.
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The trend through the 6Z Euro is a little faster end to the rain with it ending not too far after 0Z but with a good bit just before. I don't have hourlies.
 
through hr 330 GEFS looks much more interesting, already 6 members with snow in NC. compared to 2 at 06z
It's not over yet.
12z
1573538400-OcA7ybe2KaQ.png

06z
1573538400-50HDubTUDNM.png

Chance of an Inch
1573516800-WjJ55nmZtjE.png
 
Latest GFS wasn't very impressive cold wise in the East. 06z wasn't really that impressive either. Lowest temp @ my location is only 41 as of now. Wondering when we get our first legitimate freeze threat for the SE.
 
There was a winter, I think November 2001, there were several small snow / slop events here in Greenville, and was actually a big event forecasted, we were under a WSW for 4-8”, that busted, got about 1” in Greer. But it is possible to get snows in mid and late November down here, although rare, the models may not be out to lunch! Then the Dec 2002 event, was amazeballs, early December
 
GaWx said:
The trend through the 6Z Euro is a little faster end to the rain with it ending not too far after 0Z but with a good bit just before. I don't have hourlies.
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Trended back to slower on the 12Z Euro vs 6Z.
 
snowcool776 said:
So, to my understanding @Fountainguy97 looks like some snow is coming to NC!
@Ollie Williams it looks like this is going to be real with some snow.
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yeah as Myfrotho said too early to claim any legit threat. BUT November pattern may be able to produce. Or it could just be long range being long range haha. Either way winter is on the horizon with pretty much every model having showed some form of fantasy snow. for parts of the Appalachian mountains or even out of them.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
yeah as Myfrotho said too early to claim any legit threat. BUT November pattern may be able to produce. Or it could just be long range being long range haha. Either way winter is on the horizon with pretty much every model having showed some form of fantasy snow. for parts of the Appalachian mountains or even out of them.
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Ok, thanks.
 
snowcool776 said:
So, to my understanding @Fountainguy97 looks like some snow is coming to NC!
@Ollie Williams it looks like this is going to be real with some snow.
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Right now the "Chance" is about 300+ hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.phases of winter wx tracking.PNG
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Right now the "Chance" is about 300 hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.View attachment 25061
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Something really important to look out for the next 10 days.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Right now the "Chance" is about 300 hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.View attachment 25061
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Wow very nice graphic (style wise) - Thanks for posting
 
snowcool776 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

This is the GFS model for The snow event. Nothing here!
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The good news is that I wouldn't take much from that model. It's not really in-line with the Euro and or CMC and has been doing horribly since the upgrade in September. When comparing H5 (500 millibar level roughly 30000 ft up.) The Euro and CMC are more in line with a good pattern and the GFS is out to lunch. Even it's ensemble members disagree with It!
Euro
ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

CMC
gem_z500a_us_41.png

GFS
gfs_z500a_us_41.png
 
12z EPS
The mean this run (outside of mountains) is 0, that mainly because of the lack of a largely snowy member. The high to the North doesn't last as long too. Overall a there really isn't that much of a change but, short answer It looks worse. Onto the 18z GFS
1573646400-CVhXnUTLo00.png

Control looks interesting.. though not as much as 00z
1573538400-J9RVeQW0NY4.png
 
Can’t imagine we get though day 10 or so without a freeze atleast down to 40 corridor and probably south of that.

86569A16-37C6-40F4-B703-5FE62E0AD115.png
 
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