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Pattern Nippy November

Snowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah unfortunately that's been the pattern for November for several years and when we get to the middle of winter it flips. Wake me in mid December when we're staring at sustained cold in the long range.
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yeah agree... lets go ahead get this over ... n move on... see nothing but cold rains on the horizon at best
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro says hello from the SER! It has much above normal temps for the SE US 11/5-8.
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Good. Let's torch in November. All the cold November's this decade have resulted in dumpster fire winters. We cant hold a colder pattern long down here so let's not waste it in November.
 
Out to 36 on The HRR. 18z suite is faster so far, HRR & RAP. see if the nam can keep it up:
This is 7pm Trick Or Treat Night: High Mountain kids might be sledding instead of doing the Halloween thing:

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Good grief it's only October with a very nice pattern ahead that we been asking for all summer to break the extreme heat curse, and people are still not satisfied? I dont believe in a precurse season, what more could you as for with bundle of moisture coming from the gulf with a nice shot of cold air behind it. If some on here would stop complaining about next month and the month after maybe just maybe we can have things going our way. All this complaining is wearing off on the new people.
 
accu35 said:
Good grief it's only October with a very nice pattern ahead that we been asking for all summer to break the extreme heat curse, and people are still not satisfied? I dont believe in a precurse season, what more could you as for with bundle of moisture coming from the gulf with a nice shot of cold air behind it. If some on here would stop complaining about next month and the month after maybe just maybe we can have things going our way. All this complaining is wearing off on the new people.
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... and on an oldie sometimes, as well ... :cool:
 
NCSNOW said:
Out to 36 on The HRR. 18z suite is faster so far, HRR & RAP. see if the nam can keep it up:
This is 7pm Trick Or Treat Night: High Mountain kids might be sledding instead of doing the Halloween thing:

View attachment 25131
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Looked back on the surface precip maps of the HRRRrrrRRRRrrRrR and didn't see any snow?
 
accu35 said:
Good grief it's only October with a very nice pattern ahead that we been asking for all summer to break the extreme heat curse, and people are still not satisfied? I dont believe in a precurse season, what more could you as for with bundle of moisture coming from the gulf with a nice shot of cold air behind it. If some on here would stop complaining about next month and the month after maybe just maybe we can have things going our way. All this complaining is wearing off on the new people.
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Accu, I think RC said it best; We’re cautiously pessimistic. Also I would disagree that the complainers are wearing on the newcomers. I could argue that the eternal optomists are more difficult to wade through. Just some of my thoughts there. I think we can all agree that we like snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Accu, I think RC said it best; We’re cautiously pessimistic. Also I would disagree that the complainers are wearing on the newcomers. I could argue that the eternal optomists are more difficult to wade through. Just some of my thoughts there. I think we can all agree that we like snow.
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Its all good now. Thanks man
 
NCSNOW said:
Out to 36 on The HRR. 18z suite is faster so far, HRR & RAP. see if the nam can keep it up:
This is 7pm Trick Or Treat Night: High Mountain kids might be sledding instead of doing the Halloween thing:

View attachment 25131
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I don't think you used the right map. The kids will be sledding in mud if they try.
snku_acc.us_ov.png
 
3km nam still showing a good bit of frozen precip… HRRR showing almost none... I've seen this one play out before haha. HRRR all the way. 3km nam already had one fantasy ZR event for the mountains not play out a few weeks ago.

Probably some scarce flakes flying around but nothing close to what the 3km is showing
 
Sleet City USA said:
3k NAM is even more aggressive
View attachment 25135

View attachment 25136
I mean come on... thats a 56 degree drop in wind chill in 9 hours. Seriously 3k?
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That's not unrealistic. temps go from low 70s to low 40s in just a couple hours for some places. Classic strong cold front. Some places may see a 20-25 temp drop in the hour the front passes.

Temps are going to change 40 degrees in a very small amount of time. If anything the 3km will be off on wind speed. It loves to be way to strong at the surface. Still 15-25 mph winds with post-frontal air is going to get cold fast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't think you used the right map. The kids will be sledding in mud if they try.
snku_acc.us_ov.png
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Funner than you’d think! We do it all the time!
Have a forecast high of 53 on Friday!! ?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
That's not unrealistic. temps go from low 70s to low 40s in just a couple hours for some places. Classic strong cold front. Some places may see a 20-25 temp drop in the hour the front passes.
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But is that wind chill of 9F realistic?
(checks NWS wind chill charts)
Oh. I guess it could be. 3k NAM has 2m temp of 25F and gusts over 40mph, according to the NWS wind chill chart, are down in the 4-6F range.

However, this is all 3k and i think it has a cold bias? Check me on that
 
Please send just a little cool air ... Record yesterday and am on the doorstep of another today ...

..THE GAINESVILLE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 29 2019

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 89R
 
Sleet City USA said:
But is that wind chill of 9F realistic?
(checks NWS wind chill charts)
Oh. I guess it could be. 3k NAM has 2m temp of 25F and gusts over 40mph, according to the NWS wind chill chart, are down in the 4-6F range.

However, this is all 3k and i think it has a cold bias? Check me on that
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I doubt chills will get that low. Maybe on some of the top peaks. The 3k NAM is known for being to high on surface winds. And it can be too cold sometimes too lol.

It’ll be a windy and cold night for sure. Hopefully not THAT cold haha
 
I do want to mention that the signal is very weak in regards to a wintery setup mid-month with no increase of more wintery solutions. Most models are very bearish on cold air and precip, On the contrary, It looks like JB's bathtub fell over onto the NAM via the CMC model. I would be exited mid-January, but November!? I'm not really satisfied with our 2 weeks of fall
gem_T2m_seus_41.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I do want to mention that the signal is very weak in regards to a wintery setup mid-month with no increase of more wintery solutions. Most models are very bearish on cold air and precip, On the contrary, It looks like JB's bathtub fell over onto the NAM via the CMC model. I would be exited mid-January, but November!? I'm not really satisfied with our 2 weeks of fall
gem_T2m_seus_41.png
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The euro isn't like that, but the overall setup for cold is there. It's showing a blast at the end with more likely on the way. Who called for a west ridge to the pole again?
ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
 
Will Rossman said:
We might actually get a BN November across much of the SE if the Euro verifies.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Use the Euro like this: Days 1-3 are good. If Days 4-6 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably doing pretty well. If Days 7-8 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably in or near the ballpark. Completely forget that it has 9 and 10 day panels.
 
Rain Cold said:
Use the Euro like this: Days 1-3 are good. If Days 4-6 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably doing pretty well. If Days 7-8 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably in or near the ballpark. Completely forget that it has 9 and 10 day panels.
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Pretty much cuts it across the board for any model ... IMHO ... most are OK at 1 - 3; 4-6 gets a little whimpy; 7 - 8 they had a discussion and couldn't agree; after that, use your Magic 8 Ball ...
 
Rain Cold said:
Repeating Aleutian lows, ridging out west, a squarshed SE ridge...what's not to love about that run. I would definitely get in the Fall spirit if that came to pass.
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Don’t forget the beautiful 1050 high in the plains! The first of many false hopes of the season!
Your friend, the GLL is missing, maybe a winter to remedy is incoming!
 
Tarheel1 said:
There’s got to be a reason we are not seeing this through the next day or two? It turns into a cutter!?
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Does the opposite. Gets squashed.

I wasn't really looking for fantasy storms until I briefly browsed and I did see that. Was mainly watching the temps as I have been.
 
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