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Pattern Nippy November

The most recent CFSv2 forecasts have gone towards a blend of our Novembers since the winter of 2012-13 & analogs with a similar temperature distribution in October, w/ a colder than average E US being forecast. Oth, both the analogs and our longer term interannual tendency suggest December will be mild. I tend to agree with this outlook & I wouldn't bet against many of us seeing our 9th warm December in a row.

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Novembers following -PNA Octobers.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The most recent CFSv2 forecasts have gone towards a blend of our Novembers since the winter of 2012-13 & analogs with a similar temperature distribution in October, w/ a colder than average E US being forecast. Oth, both the analogs and our longer term interannual tendency suggest December will be mild. I tend to agree with this outlook & I wouldn't bet against many of us seeing our 9th warm December in a row.

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I could certainly see us sneaking in a minor-moderate impact level winter storm during November, it's been one of the few things we've been doing right lately.

November 12 2013 NC Snowmap.png

Nov 1 2014 NWS Columbia Record Snowfall Map .png

November 23-24 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
metwannabe said:
Also once again let's see if any of these gust the Euro is throwing out come close to verifying

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I'll let you know lol. In for a wild one tomorrow night in Boone

EDIT: NWS has added rain/snow chance to their thu night forecast
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
3km NAM really aggressive with the NW snow flurries Thursday night. Some of the high peaks around Roan Mt. receive 3-5in. of snow lol. 3km being the 3km.
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Yep. Little pockets of 2" on the mountain tops, plus a few spots getting .2"+ ZR. Doubtful, but i suppose its possible
 
Rime ice and wind snow is a sure thing for many. Accumulations likely limited to MTN tops higher than Boone.
 
It looks like the first half of November will be seasonable with near to slightly BN temperatures for most of us. For some reason November hasn't frequently torched in November like December has.
 
Gfs stays pretty much cold through out the run. Interesting times ahead.
 
accu35 said:
Gfs stays pretty much cold through out the run. Interesting times ahead.
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Maybe I’m just a miser but I’m not in love with what I’ve been seeing over the past several weeks. It’s going to be hard for winter to deliver without proof we can get, much less sustain, any sort of +PNA. That coupled with relentless western Atlantic ridging and the ever stubborn SER. I’m legit pessimistic about winter 2020 even though it’s not even winter yet
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe I’m just a miser but I’m not in love with what I’ve been seeing over the past several weeks. It’s going to be hard for winter to deliver without proof we can get, much less sustain, any sort of +PNA. That coupled with relentless western Atlantic ridging and the ever stubborn SER. I’m legit pessimistic about winter 2020 even though it’s not even winter yet
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I'm cautiously pessimistic. The SER, while not featured prominently, keeps popping up periodically over the last several runs. It seems to go away in the LR for a few runs and then eventually reappear. I'd feel better if we can start to see a sustained period of it not in the here and now and not popping up in the LR guidance. Then, I might feel like we are actually playing with a different kind of pattern.
 
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