NCSNOW
Member
Per Rays afternoon update. Game Forecast

Cloudy, Drizzle to snizzle
Temps in Low 40s and falling
NW wind 15-25 mph, G50 mph

Cloudy, Drizzle to snizzle
Temps in Low 40s and falling
NW wind 15-25 mph, G50 mph
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
If the frozen line is at the TX/OK border at hr312 I got bad news for the rest of the south #NothingToSeeHere
Lovely.
NCSNOW
Member
I can handle cold, single digit cold ,no problem. But wind driven cold is a whole nother animal. Throw in the moisture, gonna take 90 minute ride home to thaw out
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I remember when I was there and App had a night game for the first time in years against the number 1 team in the playoff division they used to be in, and it was pouring rain and cold. App won the game, and we tour down the goalpost and ran around campus and King Street with it. I think it ended up in the duck pond. Good times.
I also remember having to go to class with below 0 windchill. Not so good times.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The earliest I’ve ever seen it snow/sleet in Greenville, was 11/9/95, no accums, that winter rocked!
Golf7575
Member
Ollie, sometimes we dont even get this in January, and definitely not November. Obviously its overdone but fun to look at.I do want to mention that the signal is very weak in regards to a wintery setup mid-month with no increase of more wintery solutions. Most models are very bearish on cold air and precip, On the contrary, It looks like JB's bathtub fell over onto the NAM via the CMC model. I would be exited mid-January, but November!? I'm not really satisfied with our 2 weeks of fall
NCSNOW
Member
You should be rooting for your alma matter. #20 in the country. Come a long ways. Heres another met who post on football message boards. Last one from me. ROLL NEERS!
***WED PM UPDATE***
This has been a beast to pin down. Exacts are not realistic in the weather world. Having said, that, and this may change... I like what we are seeing in the data and the earlier departure for the main rain hit by mid way through the first quarter; or prior. Soggy for tailgating you bet. Some powerful wind gusts possible with cells as the roll over the mountains 4-7 PM ish. So, anchor your tailgate tents if you can.
But, trends as of tonight, favor an earlier departure for the rain. Some snow seems plausible by the end of the 4th Q.
Either way, see you up the mountain!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I also think it was warm/hot deep into October, for that reason, I’m using 95/96 winter as my anallog! It really was great, starting in early Jan!!
Golf7575
Member
I am wondering what is the most realistic analog for winter? Everyone has varying opinions like we do every year. Sometimes patterns do reapeat each year. ??
Storm5
Member
Low 30s tomorrow night !!! It’s almost wife loaning season
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Golf7575
Member
Charlie, upper 20s for us young man. ??
Brent
Member
I'll be honest I don't know either but I'm kind of over analogs after the last couple of years lol
I just hope we don't get all the cold in November and March again. For once it would be nice to have winter during wintertime.
Brent
Member
same. As much as it would be nice to have a November storm I doubt its a good thing for the real winter
Great news I'll be in kansas from the 8th-17th good chance I'll see more snow there than all year in NC
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The woodstove is ready for opening action.
Looks more active to me this run too bad it’s past hr 300
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Freeze Warning in effect tonight until tomorrow morning for my area. It’s official now! It’s happening! It’s really happening!
The diurnal temperature swing we will experience in the next 24 hours is something similar that you see out in the Midwest. It will likely be a 40-45° swing inside a 12-15 hour period. Things like this is why I love weather.
This is the kind of drop you like to see from a front!
That's awesome. Lots of weather obs via weather underground showing the same sort of drop. Tight gradient with air masses. Something you see a lot more in the Midwest.
High wind warning now for high country NC/VA
Let's look at some maps, while we're waiting. Waiting on what? Storms today, strong cold fronts, fall weather, hints of winter, winter forecast releases...anything interesting, that's what:
Walking through the 0z GFS 500mb progression over the next 16 days, we see a few interesting things, some of which feel like getting a rock in your trick or treat bag. We start out with a Reese's cup pumpkin at 120:
Nice Aleutian low, ridge off the west coast up into Canada, and a flow out of the north, centering a trough over the central US. Not ideal, but should bring seasonable weather, and certainly not horrific.
At 180, we see a semblance of the Aleutian low, but we also see a full latitude trough developing in the Pacific. The ridge has pinched off over AK and is starting to roll over. Still have a nice flow out of Canada, but it ends up more zonal across the south. I would expect this to be seasonable to slightly warm. Looks like a tootsie roll to me.
At 240, you can see our AK ridge has rolled over, forcing the Aleutian low/trough to become oriented west-east, forcing the jets stream into a mild zonal flow pattern. I would expect seasonable to warm across the south. They just tossed us a dum dum.
And finally, going out to 384, just because we can, we see all sorts of quarriable items: Granite, quartz, feldspar, you name it. Big +NAO, fast, mild Pac Jet, and our lifelong friend, the SE ridge. Going to be hard to swallow this jawbreaker.
Fortunately for us, we just have to wait 6 hours. The 6z at 240 has our EPO ridge, more favorably oriented with a low underneath, a split flow and high pressure to the north. This is probably seasonably cool. Makes it easier to chuck down that Crunch bar.
And at 384, just because, we have a decent EPO ridge, a low displaced south of the Aleutians, and a split flow, with highs migrating across the northern tier. I guess that's probably cool weather and a pack of smarties. Certainly better than chomping down on an amethyst.
Just for funsies, here are some Euro maps. The Europeans are throwing out peanut M&Ms, Milkyway Darks, and World's Finest Chocolate. Happy Halloween!
120
192
240
Walking through the 0z GFS 500mb progression over the next 16 days, we see a few interesting things, some of which feel like getting a rock in your trick or treat bag. We start out with a Reese's cup pumpkin at 120:
Nice Aleutian low, ridge off the west coast up into Canada, and a flow out of the north, centering a trough over the central US. Not ideal, but should bring seasonable weather, and certainly not horrific.
At 180, we see a semblance of the Aleutian low, but we also see a full latitude trough developing in the Pacific. The ridge has pinched off over AK and is starting to roll over. Still have a nice flow out of Canada, but it ends up more zonal across the south. I would expect this to be seasonable to slightly warm. Looks like a tootsie roll to me.
At 240, you can see our AK ridge has rolled over, forcing the Aleutian low/trough to become oriented west-east, forcing the jets stream into a mild zonal flow pattern. I would expect seasonable to warm across the south. They just tossed us a dum dum.
And finally, going out to 384, just because we can, we see all sorts of quarriable items: Granite, quartz, feldspar, you name it. Big +NAO, fast, mild Pac Jet, and our lifelong friend, the SE ridge. Going to be hard to swallow this jawbreaker.
Fortunately for us, we just have to wait 6 hours. The 6z at 240 has our EPO ridge, more favorably oriented with a low underneath, a split flow and high pressure to the north. This is probably seasonably cool. Makes it easier to chuck down that Crunch bar.
And at 384, just because, we have a decent EPO ridge, a low displaced south of the Aleutians, and a split flow, with highs migrating across the northern tier. I guess that's probably cool weather and a pack of smarties. Certainly better than chomping down on an amethyst.
Just for funsies, here are some Euro maps. The Europeans are throwing out peanut M&Ms, Milkyway Darks, and World's Finest Chocolate. Happy Halloween!
120
192
240
I read this post with DT's voice in my head....
Thank god. I dont want to get stuck in that hell hole for any extra time
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tennessee storm
Member
Snow flakes are flying around here Jackson Tennessee area ... crazy ... temps 37. Few flakes mixing in the rain hour ago
gone from 72 at midnight into the upper 40s currently. Still mixed with rain. What a cold front. Don't expect snow flurries to survive the plateau here though.
Just looked at the Euro/EPS. Can we get an order of that the next few months?
Lows near 80 the next week in Miami. I think its safe to say the front will not make it there.
Orlando will see one night in the 50s though.. So it does make it as far as central FL.
Oh the people are nice but travelling for work isn't exactly something that makes me happy. I'll be in edgerton, atchison, overland park
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olhausen
Member
I think we tend to forget sometimes that we live in the southeast where snow and sustained cold are rare.
Eh you are borderline southeast, practically midwest. Your climate is vastly different than most of the south in winter.
I fully agree about the eternal optimists. Being pessimistic about winter down here is just being a realist. Optimism is borderline delusional. Lol
GFS always leads the way when it's showing an evolution to a crappy pattern. Sucks.
