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Pattern Nippy November

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

This is the GFS model for The snow event. Nothing here!
 
GaWx said:
The trend through the 6Z Euro is a little faster end to the rain with it ending not too far after 0Z but with a good bit just before. I don't have hourlies.
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Trended back to slower on the 12Z Euro vs 6Z.
 
snowcool776 said:
So, to my understanding @Fountainguy97 looks like some snow is coming to NC!
@Ollie Williams it looks like this is going to be real with some snow.
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yeah as Myfrotho said too early to claim any legit threat. BUT November pattern may be able to produce. Or it could just be long range being long range haha. Either way winter is on the horizon with pretty much every model having showed some form of fantasy snow. for parts of the Appalachian mountains or even out of them.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
yeah as Myfrotho said too early to claim any legit threat. BUT November pattern may be able to produce. Or it could just be long range being long range haha. Either way winter is on the horizon with pretty much every model having showed some form of fantasy snow. for parts of the Appalachian mountains or even out of them.
Click to expand...
Ok, thanks.
 
snowcool776 said:
So, to my understanding @Fountainguy97 looks like some snow is coming to NC!
@Ollie Williams it looks like this is going to be real with some snow.
Click to expand...
Right now the "Chance" is about 300+ hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.phases of winter wx tracking.PNG
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Right now the "Chance" is about 300 hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.View attachment 25061
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Something really important to look out for the next 10 days.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Right now the "Chance" is about 300 hrs out, roughly about 12-13 days. We have a very Interesting pattern for winter Weather. The big problem right now is Climatology (We don't get snow In November). I don't want to say there isn't going to be snow since we are starting to see some increasingly interesting model solutions for winter weather. Though it's wayyyyyyyy to early to expect anything. I made a graphic last year that shows the phases of winter weather tracking. atm we aren't even at the 7-10 day phase yet. I will mention that this is the same timeframe that we started seeing signals for the December storm (the biggest and only winter storm we saw in the southeast). I'll keep watch and make note if things increase or decrease. I hope that brings clarification to you.View attachment 25061
Click to expand...
Wow very nice graphic (style wise) - Thanks for posting
 
snowcool776 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

This is the GFS model for The snow event. Nothing here!
Click to expand...
The good news is that I wouldn't take much from that model. It's not really in-line with the Euro and or CMC and has been doing horribly since the upgrade in September. When comparing H5 (500 millibar level roughly 30000 ft up.) The Euro and CMC are more in line with a good pattern and the GFS is out to lunch. Even it's ensemble members disagree with It!
Euro
ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

CMC
gem_z500a_us_41.png

GFS
gfs_z500a_us_41.png
 
12z EPS
The mean this run (outside of mountains) is 0, that mainly because of the lack of a largely snowy member. The high to the North doesn't last as long too. Overall a there really isn't that much of a change but, short answer It looks worse. Onto the 18z GFS
1573646400-CVhXnUTLo00.png

Control looks interesting.. though not as much as 00z
1573538400-J9RVeQW0NY4.png
 
Can’t imagine we get though day 10 or so without a freeze atleast down to 40 corridor and probably south of that.

86569A16-37C6-40F4-B703-5FE62E0AD115.png
 
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