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Pattern Nippy November

Arcc said:
Look at the changes at hr 120 on the Euro from previous runs. I’m more interested in how our models are getting worse.
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They're certainly not getting better.
 
Thursday, October 31st, 2019 12z Euro and EPS
First Wintery Euro Run

I do want to Note 2 things.
The Euro data is much more Colder with the wintery system.
1. Before you freak out I just want to let you all know that this is just a model and you don't need to call 911... but we officially have our first Euro run with snow into NC outside the mountains. Yes, that is CLT in the blue. If only there were more precip. At least we got cold air
1573214400-JSfkWKGCato.png

1573387200-JQDTdEbhXts.png

2. The EPS agrees with a decrease in 850s and a much more consolidated trough at H5. When Comparing snow, 00z had
2 members in Central NC 12z has 7.
H5 comparison at HR 216
00z
1573279200-QCNtv3ToLIw.png

12z
1573279200-3E0Vru2S1CU.png

850 Comparison
00z
1573279200-qsLTi07oOj4.png

12z
1573279200-PpawCjc0fVE.png
 
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It wouldn’t shock me to sneak out a light wintry event in NC this November, especially around NW NC around I-40 where there favored more, gfs looks interesting around That that time aswell at H5, along with the euro and the CMC, and ensembles agree on a nice H5 pattern aswell, in my opinion this is something to watch and it’s not a 240+ hour storm 592106E2-EBC0-4B03-9847-E4FD700E1C65.jpegpositively tilted trough on the GFS, but trough is digging into the GOMDDDD412B-9424-4357-AE85-81A66644E131.jpegnice trough right here aswell, and west coast ridging looking good DE150EC2-A44C-4E93-AD5A-CF12079ABC3C.jpegcmc looks alright aswell. 17F1F6CE-20C9-434C-ACC4-AB61A71F2FA6.jpeg
 
At best I could see this system producing somebody On this board there first flurries/sleet pellets outside of the mountains, but hey I doubted that setup last April only to see some decent snow/sleet even tho it didn’t stick
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
At best I could see this system producing somebody On this board there first flurries/sleet pellets outside of the mountains, but hey I doubted that setup last April only to see some decent snow/sleet even tho it didn’t stick
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Tennessee and north Alabama had flurries tonight. Saw on Twitter far north Georgia had some but can’t verify.


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Swear on one of the shots on ESPNU that I saw some flakes flying in Boone?

Edit: My eyes weren't mistaken, I did.
 
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NoSnowATL said:
Tennessee and north Alabama had flurries tonight. Saw on Twitter far north Georgia had some but can’t verify.


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went on lunch at 7 pm at work and it was spitting melted snow/tiny snow grains. Aka, still rain. Temp right around 40, but probably way colder aloft.
 
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Don't bother looking at 0z GFS, it's essentially, 'back to reality', some moderate cold fronts, but snow is well above the Ohio Valley. And it should be. It's the first half of November. Also, if you don't hit freezing during this current cold spell, you might not hit it until after the 10th.
 
Fortunately, the GFS pretty much got rid of that "roll-over ridge idea, extending the trough west-east, flooding the country with a mild Pacific flow idea". Much better looking pattern down the line. Looks pretty seasonable through the run, which is nice.
 
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GaWx said:
After a latest on record 90 yesterday at KSAV, which is 15 warmer than normal, it got down to 43 this morning, which is 9 colder than normal. Impressive cold front!
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RDU tied their record high at 85.... amazing 24 hours of weather and why I love this stuff.
 
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