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Pattern Nippy November

Rain Cold said:
Lol

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Ah, fv3
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Hmm, GFS trending northeast with the strong Lobe in SE Canada, and allowing lower pressure to slowly move NE, 850s could easily cool from dynamical cooling 8C09CF95-C6CE-421C-A7D3-8E1699285582.gifAAD8E5FA-038A-4357-B5E5-9B843AEF14CF.gif
 
Already 33.8 and DP of 29.3. Very likely to see my first real freeze tonight!

Have had 3 heavy frosts already with temps around 34-35 so this is just to make it official haha
 
Just for fun, I just looked at it and there wasn't much correlation between Novembers and our winters in recent years I think. Last year may have been below normal, but most years have been seasonable.

But man, this first half of November might be quite cool compared to normal for all of us.
 
Don’t know if anyone saw or pointed this out but the 18z GEFS has a few members sniff something out around hr318 fwiwC8B83E44-2356-4383-945A-F79EF3A2802C.jpeg
 
0z gfs is by far the coldest run yet. 1053 H diving down, with this pattern I believe a November winterstorm could happen
 
Daily thoughts: You know it’s going to be one of those winters when you get that big tall ridge to move on shore out west but can only manage a ridge bridge across the continental US #Fail70E11686-B237-490D-A181-7169D4D23BA0.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
sooooo Close. Much better look on the GFS around day 6.
06z
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12z
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Soundings don’t matter much around that time, but we get the idea of a leftover artic airmass at lower levels-surface like past events, this is that type of setup that would favor more sleet/freezing rain, that run was close to a solid sleet event DE2577C5-D8EF-4473-9068-FA0C5FE3F8AB.png
 
GFS.....oooohhhhhh GFS....

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This is absolutely absurd and it's not completely in fantasy land. I have to say that it's probable that it's way off (but we'll see what the Euro has to say close to the same time period).
 
Poimen said:
The GFS has probably been nipping at the Wild Turkey a little early in the season. It could be correct with generally cold pattern but not nearly as cold as advertised.
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Yeah, that was crazy what it did to that low pressure
 
The consistency of a strong arctic blast sometime mid month is there. The blast probably won't be as strong like what 12z is suggesting though. The blast of cold air is filters in tremendously fast and catches up with the moisture, it would be very windy behind a front like that.

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This is not in fantasy land and I know gfs can have some drunken issues, but given the consistency gfs has been showing these cold out breaks, I say we have a legit chance of seeing well below average temps and possible storm mixed in. Weather Channel had a discussion this morning about cold outbreak November coming with multiple chances of snows systems.
 
Nov 1st had a departure of -11.8 with 53/36.. you have to go back to April 20th to find a day with a greater negative departure. -14.7. 51/43.
 
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