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Pattern Nippy November

Down to 40 at the house (39 at KAGS, surprising it wasn't further apart), but it kinda looks like there might have been light frost anyway.
 
32.3F here
 
NCSNOW said:
It was steady on and off snow showers most of the game last night. Worse wind I've ever experienced for a ballgame as a fan,coach or player. Bleachers froze up during game and you could see the snow snaking down the road on way out with wind chill in the low teens.
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Man that’s awesome ?? ❄️
 
From Maxar, the GEFS this week for a very rare time ended up not being too cold while the EPS was too warm:

“Model Ranges For Gas-Weighted HDDs
The Euro model has historically been the best performer among guidance, but this was not the case this week. In its 0z Monday run, the Euro EN missed too warm by a significant 7.2 GWHDDs for the Monday to Thursday period. Alternatively, the GFS EN performed well, missing too warm by just 1.0 GWHDDs during that stretch. Only the CAN EN was too cold in its projection earlier this week. The next 15 days are forecast to total 292.3 GWHDDs, which ranks #9 for coldest first half of November among records dating back to 1950. The forecast is on the warm side of the model average, but the spread is significant; 75 GWHDDs separate the coldest and warmest models. The 0z and 6z runs from the GFS EN project a top-5 cold period, while the 0z Euro EN (-12 vs forecast) still ranks inside the top-15.”
 
I'll be honest, I had a blast last night even though we lost. like @NCSNOW said, drizzle switched to flurries in the late second, and continued for the remainder. Saw plenty of rime ice at the higher elevations this morning, and a trace-.1 of snow around the Grandfather Mtn area. And folks, lemme just say: it. was. cold.
 
NoSnowATL said:
December definitely looks warm, I don’t see a torch but warm nevertheless.


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Nah, just kidding. I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen in December much less the rest of the winter. Frankly I'd be fine with torch Nov and Dec and turn cold January. I know it doesn't work like that, but to me it seems unlikely to be completely warm or cold for 4 straight months. Eventually it'll turn. Be nice if it could turn when we need it. Last few years it seems to happen 30 days too late, in March.

For now though I'll settle nicely for a crisp cool fall.
 
12z GFS

I was wondering if things could possibly trend/shift further south? It certainly could with this look. If the northern stream presses down further south, of course it would be colder. Plus, that's an impressive arctic hp. This look is also impressive for it to be early in the season. For now, it's fun to look at, could it be something to seriously track in the coming days? Of course, that's a possibility. I'd like to see serious consistency for the system and watch for a south shift with the northern stream.
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pcbjr said:
Came home early today to enjoy the outside while it's enjoyable! Just had to post it before going back out ... :p
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I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
 
WxWatch said:
12z GFS

I was wondering if things could possibly trend/shift further south? It certainly could with this look. If the northern stream presses down further south, of course it would be colder. Plus, that's an impressive arctic hp. This look is also impressive for it to be early in the season. For now, it's fun to look at, could it be something to seriously track in the coming days? Of course, that's a possibility. I'd like to see serious consistency.
0e8a3ccd01a58d3765cc4eb6da80fbd3.jpg
49baac609b420eae6b6e3e84721b0200.jpg


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Still not sleeping on his one completely yet, it’s squashed on the GFS at H5 from that strong lobe in SE Canada but if the axis of that trough could just move a little bit NW but not to far NW than it could still do a little something 7EBCD072-F585-46A7-AAD1-D6DCF7D542A2.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
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:cool:
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Still not sleeping on his one completely yet, it’s squashed on the GFS at H5 from that strong lobe in SE Canada but if the axis of that trough could just move a little bit NW but not to far NW than it could still do a little something View attachment 25211
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The time period I was referring to is starting on the 11th. I was looking at that time period you're referring to and I have my doubts that any weather system will develop. The ridge out west is so broad that it compresses energy from developing into a define weather system.

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GaWx said:
I'm 100% with you on this, Phil! I'll be outside ASAP. With perfect wx like this, I don't care about this winter or any other time right now as I'm going to enjoy the beautiful present rather than worry about the future or dwell on the past.
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Came inside ... just to remind myself to get the arse right back outside ... ;)
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Looks like the freezing line got down to abt 3000 feet!
First dusting of snow/rime ice of the season for my area!

what a day in weather. Went from 75 down to 34 and surrounding peaks getting snow. Haha crazy.

View attachment 25207
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Hey yes, I hiked up to Rainbow Falls in Smoky Mountain National Park this morning and can confirm that the scene was definitely worth a long hike!



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Wanting to go to mt. Mitchell tomorrow. Never been , foliage all around there should be peak and high should be about 40
 
Van Denton In GSO posted this about an hour ago. He reminds me of a lot of people on here. Somebody needs to get him on this board!

"I would bet no one likes snow as much as I do. With that in mind, I look at EVERYTHING I can find to see any possibility. I have found over the past few years the best way to get a heads up is to look at the long-range model ensembles. The 2 primary models, GFS and European are run 20 and 50 times with each update. By looking at ALL of these runs, I am able to mathematically put this together. Over the past 3 years of doing this, every snow that we have gotten, has shown up here 10-15 days in advance. There are no details or specifics that far out, but you do get hints in advance of a real possibility. I don't get excited until I see the value climb above 30%."
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Van Denton In GSO posted this about an hour ago. He reminds me of a lot of people on here. Somebody needs to get him on this board!

"I would bet no one likes snow as much as I do. With that in mind, I look at EVERYTHING I can find to see any possibility. I have found over the past few years the best way to get a heads up is to look at the long-range model ensembles. The 2 primary models, GFS and European are run 20 and 50 times with each update. By looking at ALL of these runs, I am able to mathematically put this together. Over the past 3 years of doing this, every snow that we have gotten, has shown up here 10-15 days in advance. There are no details or specifics that far out, but you do get hints in advance of a real possibility. I don't get excited until I see the value climb above 30%."
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Ollie,
What is "snow"?
Phil
 
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