• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

ForsythSnow said:
I don't think you used the right map. The kids will be sledding in mud if they try.
snku_acc.us_ov.png
Click to expand...
Funner than you’d think! We do it all the time!
Have a forecast high of 53 on Friday!! ?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
That's not unrealistic. temps go from low 70s to low 40s in just a couple hours for some places. Classic strong cold front. Some places may see a 20-25 temp drop in the hour the front passes.
Click to expand...
But is that wind chill of 9F realistic?
(checks NWS wind chill charts)
Oh. I guess it could be. 3k NAM has 2m temp of 25F and gusts over 40mph, according to the NWS wind chill chart, are down in the 4-6F range.

However, this is all 3k and i think it has a cold bias? Check me on that
 
Please send just a little cool air ... Record yesterday and am on the doorstep of another today ...

..THE GAINESVILLE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 29 2019

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1890 TO 2019
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 89R
 
Sleet City USA said:
But is that wind chill of 9F realistic?
(checks NWS wind chill charts)
Oh. I guess it could be. 3k NAM has 2m temp of 25F and gusts over 40mph, according to the NWS wind chill chart, are down in the 4-6F range.

However, this is all 3k and i think it has a cold bias? Check me on that
Click to expand...

I doubt chills will get that low. Maybe on some of the top peaks. The 3k NAM is known for being to high on surface winds. And it can be too cold sometimes too lol.

It’ll be a windy and cold night for sure. Hopefully not THAT cold haha
 
I do want to mention that the signal is very weak in regards to a wintery setup mid-month with no increase of more wintery solutions. Most models are very bearish on cold air and precip, On the contrary, It looks like JB's bathtub fell over onto the NAM via the CMC model. I would be exited mid-January, but November!? I'm not really satisfied with our 2 weeks of fall
gem_T2m_seus_41.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I do want to mention that the signal is very weak in regards to a wintery setup mid-month with no increase of more wintery solutions. Most models are very bearish on cold air and precip, On the contrary, It looks like JB's bathtub fell over onto the NAM via the CMC model. I would be exited mid-January, but November!? I'm not really satisfied with our 2 weeks of fall
gem_T2m_seus_41.png
Click to expand...
The euro isn't like that, but the overall setup for cold is there. It's showing a blast at the end with more likely on the way. Who called for a west ridge to the pole again?
ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
 
Will Rossman said:
We might actually get a BN November across much of the SE if the Euro verifies.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Use the Euro like this: Days 1-3 are good. If Days 4-6 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably doing pretty well. If Days 7-8 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably in or near the ballpark. Completely forget that it has 9 and 10 day panels.
 
Rain Cold said:
Use the Euro like this: Days 1-3 are good. If Days 4-6 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably doing pretty well. If Days 7-8 agree loosely with the GFS, it is probably in or near the ballpark. Completely forget that it has 9 and 10 day panels.
Click to expand...
Pretty much cuts it across the board for any model ... IMHO ... most are OK at 1 - 3; 4-6 gets a little whimpy; 7 - 8 they had a discussion and couldn't agree; after that, use your Magic 8 Ball ...
 
Rain Cold said:
Repeating Aleutian lows, ridging out west, a squarshed SE ridge...what's not to love about that run. I would definitely get in the Fall spirit if that came to pass.
Click to expand...
Don’t forget the beautiful 1050 high in the plains! The first of many false hopes of the season!
Your friend, the GLL is missing, maybe a winter to remedy is incoming!
 
Tarheel1 said:
There’s got to be a reason we are not seeing this through the next day or two? It turns into a cutter!?
Click to expand...

Does the opposite. Gets squashed.

I wasn't really looking for fantasy storms until I briefly browsed and I did see that. Was mainly watching the temps as I have been.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top