accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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yep, lol
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Ilovesnow28
Member
Holy cow i wasn't planning on returning to about early December but man i may have to start my winter model watching early if i keep seeing what these models are advertising
Ilovesnow28
Member
Have we ever had a early snow in November in the deep south
NoSnowATL
Member
In 14( might be wrong year) we have snow flurries around Thanksgiving .
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check your Nowdata.. it's back for Morristown.
Ilovesnow28
Member
You guys have me excited and its only november time to get back to work for sure
looks like Tuscaloosa Apt has data going back to 1948... https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=bmx
Only traces of snow for Tuscaloosa, since 1948.
Only traces of snow for Tuscaloosa, since 1948.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Thanks for the info since i live in the Tuscaloosa area i have hope
Forevertothee
Member
Yes. Upstate SC November 1, 2014.
3 inches accumulated before Dawn. All melted by 10am due to soil temps in 60s. Was near 80 a week before event.
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pcbjr
Member
Quite a temp gradient between Gainesville, Ocala and Orlando ...
It seems like in November, the further west you go the better chances for wintry precip. I remember watching a Cowboys-Dolphins Thanksgiving game in Dallas in the 90s where the field was covered in ice and snow. You would never see that in Atlanta in November.
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s easier for Dallas then Atlanta. Cold air always funnels down the rookies then moderates as it moves East. It takes a perfect setup for Atlanta or any other place in the SE to see snow.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't completely go to sleep on the idea for an outside shot of some token flurries or sleet pellets over the most climatologically favored areas of the Carolinas around day 5-6 w/ a very weak sheared frontal wave trying to overrun a cold airmass being left by this trough over Atlantic Canada. This is a classic z500 pattern for cold air damming. The ECMWF oth isn't anywhere near as favorable
Brent
Member
Yeah 1993(ironically Halloween was the coldest since then) and it didnt snow the rest of winter ?
NoSnowATL
Member
Yeah 1993(ironically Halloween was the coldest since then) and it didnt snow the rest of winter
I’ll take 93 again!
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Incoming wintery mix across northern NC on the 18z GFS
cd2play
Member
#slizzard (sleet blizzard)Incoming Ice storm across NC on the 18z GFS
Unfortunately, I'm thinking this is from the FV3 bias. EPS and GEFS is not on boardIncoming wintery mix across northern NC on the 18z GFS
GFs trending with a slightly weaker western ridge, good H5 pattern for a event around I-40 north, been watching this one for days and it’s definitely been interesting, GFS did show a more north track tho this run, euro and GFS differ at H5 around this time
BufordWX
Member
And you expect me to believe this.
There is also a high of 29 here on the 12th. Looks like the Fv3 is back to its old tricks again.
There is also a high of 29 here on the 12th. Looks like the Fv3 is back to its old tricks again.
NoSnowATL
Member
tennessee storm
Member
Anyone mention the fv3 model should be banned ... lol
NoSnowATL
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah right, the entire part of the PV just heads for the border of the US and Canada and makes it feel like a brutal January day with a high of freezing and a low in the mid to lower teens. Yep totally November. Oh and look at this lol. I've never seen a sounding with the DGZ so low. No moisture, but fun to look at.
Lol....18z GFS is wild. That is some arctic air attach at day 10. There would be a day where many don't get above freezing for highs. That's hard enough to do in mid winter. It would be incredible for mid November.
In most cases yes, but in this case maybe not so much. While of course it's too cold, it actually isnt too far off from the GEFS, Euro, EPS at H5.
It's too cold, but that is just rain on the front so not too crazy. Before we ban the FV3, we definitely need to ban that horrible output image. It's even worse than the old 850C/6hr QPF chart.
Brent
Member
I’ll take 93 again!
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93-94 but 92-93 lol
the biggest snow for Dallas in November was in 1976 over 4 inches btw
now that winter had 10 inches of snow...
Golf7575
Member
Accu35, That is the coldest run i have ever seen in all my model watching! Even during winter. ???Holy cow
I'm having a hard time believing that it's going to get brutal cold like what the GFS is suggesting. It is still early in the season. If it was late December/Jan, a strong cold blast like that would be believable. If a solid consistency builds, I will seriously believe that the strong cold blast has a good chance of happening. However, the consistency of a cold blast is there, the question is how strong will it be? Will it be as strong like what the GFS has advertised? maybe, can't completely rule it out at this point. Another thing that we need to watch out for is a secondary low that may form on the tail end of the arctic front. Both EPS/GEFS MSLP anomaly are indicating a low developing on the tail end of the front.
18z runs 11/2
Why I'm very bearish (Pessimistic) on our snow chances around day 6
1. The only model solution that is implying we see some wintery weather next week in the FV3 (GFS Upgrade). For those who don't know by now, the model has had some problems with suppression. I believe a met on twitter posted its runs from not too long ago, but It shows the model going from being suppressed all the to the Atlantic to being a snow event across the midwest. I didn't pay attention to what those runs did wrong, yet, I would believe that It would be because of a weakened NS, in which I will go in-depth to in a second. After looking at the GEFS there have only been about 4 members to have a similar setup. Only 2 of which show snow in NC. Bottom line, It's pretty bad when you have to hug the FV3
2. A more In-depth look; essentially this is because of how the NS interacts with the Southern stream. In this setup, the southern stream would be possible for bringing the Low pressure. The Northern stream is the most questionable. If it's strong the NS will pick up the low and bring it into the Midwest. When comparing two models, the Icon (German Model) and the GFS. The Icon has a much stronger NS (See below). Notice that Blue line, When comparing the GFS (also below) It is much more curved and further south, It is digging the NS to the point in which the system comes all the way north and effects the midwest. Also, watch the vorticity (the yellow color) There is much more of it on the Icon, this represents the strength of the northern stream energy. This is much stronger and has a larger pull on the Southern Stream low. The GFS is the exact opposite, flatter, and weaker vorticity signal. It allows the southern low to move across the southern end of the US before making it to the Southeast, roughly staying at the same latitude. Causing some wintery weather. Bottom line: The GFS has a much weaker northern stream. (a good thing) It allows it to stay south at a similar latitude. Unfortunately, this is not in agreement with other models, that is why I think the GFS is out to lunch. Or should I say out for Margaritas, that would explain a lot. Lol.
Icon (midwest snow)
GFS (Wintery solution for the Southeast)
Why I'm very bearish (Pessimistic) on our snow chances around day 6
1. The only model solution that is implying we see some wintery weather next week in the FV3 (GFS Upgrade). For those who don't know by now, the model has had some problems with suppression. I believe a met on twitter posted its runs from not too long ago, but It shows the model going from being suppressed all the to the Atlantic to being a snow event across the midwest. I didn't pay attention to what those runs did wrong, yet, I would believe that It would be because of a weakened NS, in which I will go in-depth to in a second. After looking at the GEFS there have only been about 4 members to have a similar setup. Only 2 of which show snow in NC. Bottom line, It's pretty bad when you have to hug the FV3
2. A more In-depth look; essentially this is because of how the NS interacts with the Southern stream. In this setup, the southern stream would be possible for bringing the Low pressure. The Northern stream is the most questionable. If it's strong the NS will pick up the low and bring it into the Midwest. When comparing two models, the Icon (German Model) and the GFS. The Icon has a much stronger NS (See below). Notice that Blue line, When comparing the GFS (also below) It is much more curved and further south, It is digging the NS to the point in which the system comes all the way north and effects the midwest. Also, watch the vorticity (the yellow color) There is much more of it on the Icon, this represents the strength of the northern stream energy. This is much stronger and has a larger pull on the Southern Stream low. The GFS is the exact opposite, flatter, and weaker vorticity signal. It allows the southern low to move across the southern end of the US before making it to the Southeast, roughly staying at the same latitude. Causing some wintery weather. Bottom line: The GFS has a much weaker northern stream. (a good thing) It allows it to stay south at a similar latitude. Unfortunately, this is not in agreement with other models, that is why I think the GFS is out to lunch. Or should I say out for Margaritas, that would explain a lot. Lol.
Icon (midwest snow)
GFS (Wintery solution for the Southeast)
Nobody thought it would ever be 100 in Oct but it happened. Nothing surprises me anymore. We are living in a time of extreme weather. A blizzard in Atlanta on Thanksgiving would not shock me.
Golf7575
Member
It would me fo sho!!
yeah but... 'that thing that has its own topic thread'.
Adding more to this post, I have drew out what I'm looking out for that possible secondary low that may form on the tail end of the front. We watch for this on future model runs. This is a good window for a freak November southern snow storm.
Golf7575
Member
Wxwatch, i am not as good as most in here on weather possibilities, but i think the trough will be too far east this time, due to the +pna, but we will see though. Just a glancing blow of the real cold air, but i don't think we want it this early anyway.
I DO. I WOULD LOVE A FEW WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS MIGHT HIT 30
ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN !!!!!!
bro???? it’s not even December yet