The diurnal temperature swing we will experience in the next 24 hours is something similar that you see out in the Midwest. It will likely be a 40-45° swing inside a 12-15 hour period. Things like this is why I love weather.
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
This is the kind of drop you like to see from a front!
That's awesome. Lots of weather obs via weather underground showing the same sort of drop. Tight gradient with air masses. Something you see a lot more in the Midwest.
High wind warning now for high country NC/VA
Let's look at some maps, while we're waiting. Waiting on what? Storms today, strong cold fronts, fall weather, hints of winter, winter forecast releases...anything interesting, that's what:
Walking through the 0z GFS 500mb progression over the next 16 days, we see a few interesting things, some of which feel like getting a rock in your trick or treat bag. We start out with a Reese's cup pumpkin at 120:
Nice Aleutian low, ridge off the west coast up into Canada, and a flow out of the north, centering a trough over the central US. Not ideal, but should bring seasonable weather, and certainly not horrific.
At 180, we see a semblance of the Aleutian low, but we also see a full latitude trough developing in the Pacific. The ridge has pinched off over AK and is starting to roll over. Still have a nice flow out of Canada, but it ends up more zonal across the south. I would expect this to be seasonable to slightly warm. Looks like a tootsie roll to me.
At 240, you can see our AK ridge has rolled over, forcing the Aleutian low/trough to become oriented west-east, forcing the jets stream into a mild zonal flow pattern. I would expect seasonable to warm across the south. They just tossed us a dum dum.
And finally, going out to 384, just because we can, we see all sorts of quarriable items: Granite, quartz, feldspar, you name it. Big +NAO, fast, mild Pac Jet, and our lifelong friend, the SE ridge. Going to be hard to swallow this jawbreaker.
Fortunately for us, we just have to wait 6 hours. The 6z at 240 has our EPO ridge, more favorably oriented with a low underneath, a split flow and high pressure to the north. This is probably seasonably cool. Makes it easier to chuck down that Crunch bar.
And at 384, just because, we have a decent EPO ridge, a low displaced south of the Aleutians, and a split flow, with highs migrating across the northern tier. I guess that's probably cool weather and a pack of smarties. Certainly better than chomping down on an amethyst.
Just for funsies, here are some Euro maps. The Europeans are throwing out peanut M&Ms, Milkyway Darks, and World's Finest Chocolate. Happy Halloween!
120
192
240
Walking through the 0z GFS 500mb progression over the next 16 days, we see a few interesting things, some of which feel like getting a rock in your trick or treat bag. We start out with a Reese's cup pumpkin at 120:
Nice Aleutian low, ridge off the west coast up into Canada, and a flow out of the north, centering a trough over the central US. Not ideal, but should bring seasonable weather, and certainly not horrific.
At 180, we see a semblance of the Aleutian low, but we also see a full latitude trough developing in the Pacific. The ridge has pinched off over AK and is starting to roll over. Still have a nice flow out of Canada, but it ends up more zonal across the south. I would expect this to be seasonable to slightly warm. Looks like a tootsie roll to me.
At 240, you can see our AK ridge has rolled over, forcing the Aleutian low/trough to become oriented west-east, forcing the jets stream into a mild zonal flow pattern. I would expect seasonable to warm across the south. They just tossed us a dum dum.
And finally, going out to 384, just because we can, we see all sorts of quarriable items: Granite, quartz, feldspar, you name it. Big +NAO, fast, mild Pac Jet, and our lifelong friend, the SE ridge. Going to be hard to swallow this jawbreaker.
Fortunately for us, we just have to wait 6 hours. The 6z at 240 has our EPO ridge, more favorably oriented with a low underneath, a split flow and high pressure to the north. This is probably seasonably cool. Makes it easier to chuck down that Crunch bar.
And at 384, just because, we have a decent EPO ridge, a low displaced south of the Aleutians, and a split flow, with highs migrating across the northern tier. I guess that's probably cool weather and a pack of smarties. Certainly better than chomping down on an amethyst.
Just for funsies, here are some Euro maps. The Europeans are throwing out peanut M&Ms, Milkyway Darks, and World's Finest Chocolate. Happy Halloween!
120
192
240
I read this post with DT's voice in my head....
Thank god. I dont want to get stuck in that hell hole for any extra time
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tennessee storm
Member
Snow flakes are flying around here Jackson Tennessee area ... crazy ... temps 37. Few flakes mixing in the rain hour ago
gone from 72 at midnight into the upper 40s currently. Still mixed with rain. What a cold front. Don't expect snow flurries to survive the plateau here though.
Just looked at the Euro/EPS. Can we get an order of that the next few months?
Lows near 80 the next week in Miami. I think its safe to say the front will not make it there.
Orlando will see one night in the 50s though.. So it does make it as far as central FL.
Oh the people are nice but travelling for work isn't exactly something that makes me happy. I'll be in edgerton, atchison, overland park
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olhausen
Member
I think we tend to forget sometimes that we live in the southeast where snow and sustained cold are rare.
Eh you are borderline southeast, practically midwest. Your climate is vastly different than most of the south in winter.
I fully agree about the eternal optimists. Being pessimistic about winter down here is just being a realist. Optimism is borderline delusional. Lol
GFS always leads the way when it's showing an evolution to a crappy pattern. Sucks.
