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Pattern Nippy November

Most folks will probably like the 12Z EPS for temperatures for 11/12-17 as they're cooler than the 0Z run. Here's what the 12Z EPS has for the SE as a whole: averaging warmer than normal for 11/5 through AM of 11/8 and then mainly cooler than normal late 11/8 through 17, with some of that cool even getting down to @pcbjr and myself. Keep in mind that the EPS has had a warm bias recently.
 
GaWx said:
Most folks will probably like the 12Z EPS for temperatures for 11/12-17 as they're cooler than the 0Z run. Here's what the 12Z EPS has for the SE as a whole: averaging warmer than normal for 11/5 through AM of 11/8 and then mainly cooler than normal late 11/8 through 17, with some of that cool even getting down to @pcbjr and myself. Keep in mind that the EPS has had a warm bias recently.
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Larry,
Cool weather in November is nice, and enjoyable, and we certainly have no control over when it comes, or how cool it'll be, but preferentially, after 12/15 through 3/15 is, well, the optimum for us anyways ...
Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Cool weather in November is nice, and enjoyable, and we certainly have no control over when it comes, or how cool it'll be, but preferentially, after 12/15 through 3/15 is, well, the optimum for us anyways ...
Phil
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Meanwhile, today's cool is near ideal for walking! I plan to go for a 3rd day in a row great walk later. So far, 3 out of 3 for Nov! They won't all be good but that's a nice start.
 
GaWx said:
Most folks will probably like the 12Z EPS for temperatures for 11/12-17 as they're cooler than the 0Z run. Here's what the 12Z EPS has for the SE as a whole: averaging warmer than normal for 11/5 through AM of 11/8 and then mainly cooler than normal late 11/8 through 17, with some of that cool even getting down to @pcbjr and myself. Keep in mind that the EPS has had a warm bias recently.
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If that bias remains, then I could easily see us having a cooler November overall. Even without the bias and acting if it's dead on, that's great news.
 
GaWx said:
Meanwhile, today's cool is near ideal for walking! I plan to go for a 3rd day in a row great walk later. So far, 3 out of 3 for Nov! They won't all be good but that's a nice start.
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The walks have been stellar ... this AM the birds were not even chirping it was so cool (46º) ... drifted back to August, lowered my head a tad and said a "thank you" prayer for today ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Obviously a completely different setup, but ironically it snowed on November 10-12th 1987 during what was also a 2nd year El Nino event in the winter of 1987-88.
View attachment 25301


Everyone around here of course remembers 1987-88 for what followed in January:
View attachment 25302
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As GaWx has stated in the past, that memorable storm, occurred during a +NAO! We are good at those!
 
Tarheel1 said:
As GaWx has stated in the past, that memorable storm, occurred during a +NAO! We are good at those!
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The hemispheric 500mb pattern associated w/ the historic Jan 1988 storm ought to look familiar...

Big cold vortex over SE Canada/+NAO/-EPO & a respectable SW Atlantic subtropical ridge, a pattern we've seen over & over since 2012-13.
compday.GxkM040WGs.gif
 
WxWatch said:
With the placement of snowfall, it appears that the low would be a southern slider, (snow on back side) and low tracks along the eastern coast.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
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Actually It’s a low that makes its way up the EC. Normally this setup would bring us rain, but because of the Extremely low height, precipitation falls as snow.
7F330074-F45A-4EB5-87C5-F30E2AB9E3A3.png0F98BE49-27CB-4097-972A-4A06787EEAE6.png
 
accu35 said:
I still think the upper south should still watch this one, it's not that far off for something special
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Yeah, it actually was not a bad run. Precip was just lighter and too far south/east. I still wouldn't wager any money we get anything, but still something to keep an eye on.
 
It's really difficult to imagine anything more than token flakes this time of year. But whatever, never say never.
 
Looking at the 11th-12th time period (as always, timing may change) I think there will be a series of lows along the boundary. The first low along the boundary would drop snowfall for mostly along the Ohio River towards the Mid-Atlantic and possibly northern sections of North Carolina. A second low to the southwest on the tail end of the boundary develops (or at least tries to on the 18z GFS)
GFS500v.jpg

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
The moisture is associated with the front, but it's also associated with a developing surface low that would ride along the boundary. The moisture would spread east at the same time the deep cold air pushes southeast, which is setting up for the potential of frozen precipitation across portions of the Southeastern US. Perhaps, that is what the 12z Euro and the control is hinting at. Everything would have to come together just right for this to work. Of course, this is based from my thinking by model analyses.
 
Is anyone worried that this cold is going to flip just in time for December ? Ive got a feeling that most of us may be wearing shorts for Christmas.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is anyone worried that this cold is going to flip just in time for December ? Ive got a feeling that most of us may be wearing shorts for Christmas.
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If November turns out to be below normal overall, that doesn't mean that December will be above normal overall. All we know, the pattern may stay in a favorable pattern that favors below normal temps. it could go either way.
 
WxWatch said:
If November turns out to be below normal overall, that doesn't mean that December will be above normal overall. All we know, the pattern may stay in a favorable pattern that favors below normal temps. it could go either way.
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Not for 4 months ... unless we're rolling the clock back 10,000 years ... we have 6 weeks or so of hope in a good, normal year ... pray it starts in late December ...
 
Just going back 2 decades... a colder than normal Nov has led to a fairly cold/snowy winter, at least in Chattanooga. There are a couple of exceptions. And the two 'exceptions' were close to normal temp wise. 09-10, and 10-11.

Edit: forgot to include colder than normal Nov's that led to snowless, warm winters, then compare outcome rates.
 
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