Webberweather53
Meteorologist
And it seems to be colder and snowier for other parts too. I see a few members that give flakes to N GA as well or AL. Weird we are talking about snow in November.There's definitely some support from the EPS on the idea for something around Nov 12-13th timeframe. Obviously, still a long shot at this juncture
View attachment 25339View attachment 25340View attachment 25341
I was just looking over the 0z Euro and it has exactly what I've been mentioning. It just has everything further east than what I have thought. The most thing that came to mind is where will the boundary set up? If it sets up further north and west, there would a wide swath of snow/winter mix. Perhaps, there could be a northwest trend.
The area of rain showers at the end of the boundary is associated with the 3rd low that will be developing on the tail end. At this point, the cold deep air will already be in place.
View attachment 25336
At hour 192, the final third low develops on the tail end of the boundary. As of now, this low would strengthen and follow the east coast off shore and give the east coast a snow storm. Again, if there will be that northwest trend, a lot more area's would be in play across the Southeastern US for the chance of snow/winter mix. We'll see how everything comes together.
View attachment 25337
And it seems to be colder and snowier for other parts too. I see a few members that give flakes to N GA as well or AL. Weird we are talking about snow in November.
What is the effect of that for the SE?The GEFS ensemble completely whiffed on this MJO event over the West Pacific & Maritime Continent even just a few days out.
Embarrassing...
View attachment 25343
View attachment 25342
2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
View attachment 25333View attachment 25334
What is the effect of that for the SE?
I thought all models had a cold bias!?!2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.
11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
View attachment 25333View attachment 25334
At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.Euro has not backed down the last few runs. In fact, this is a nice increase from the previous runs. Not sure why some are saying it can't happen just because it is in November. The weather is going to do what it's going to do with the factors that we have at that time. It doesn't really care that it's November. Yes, wintry weather does not happen often in November here, but it's not impossible.
Also, this is the Euro. As long as I have been on these forums folks have said the Euro is the king over the GFS. I know the GFS is supposed to be new and improved now, but the Euro showing this should make folks take notice and at least pay attention to the possibility.
At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.
You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.And for all you know it won't be gone the next run. Storms also vanish and then come back at the last minute. Just saying totally discounting it because it's only November is silly, just as much as guaranteeing it's going to happen. Just wait and see, and always better in life to be optimistic than negative about things.
Exactly. Probability of something occurring like that is low, but I'm not discounting the chance that it could happen. It's still in a range that could allow it to happen. In my years of watching snow, The amount of storms that have failed to show outnumber the ones that did. With that said, if we have an anomalous cold blast, the odds of a January-like storm would increase if all the stars align. I mean the Euro has me at freezing all day on the 12th I believe. I've never seen temps like that this early, so I have reason to doubt. You can't chase everything with 100% optimism because if you do then that light at the end of the tunnel could just be a train.You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.
I thought all models had a cold bias!?!
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Or numb nuts November? I would expect moderation as we get closer. Look to ensembles at this distance.If that powerhouse Aleutian Low has staying power and that vortex stays near the Hudson the thread title will have to be changed to Numb Nipple November.
It's likely overdone, but it's not every day you see a 1050 high crashing out of Canada into the plains. This is going to get interesting.End of ICON fwiw
View attachment 25350
HIGH temperatures on the 12z Euro during the heart of the long range cold outbreak. This is still very impressive for the middle of winter, much less mid November.
Parts of north Florida don't even make it out of the 40s.
View attachment 25363
The earth has a way of balancing itself out. 100° first part of Oct here. So why not 40° as a high in the middle of November
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk