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Pattern Nippy November

WxWatch said:
I was just looking over the 0z Euro and it has exactly what I've been mentioning. It just has everything further east than what I have thought. The most thing that came to mind is where will the boundary set up? If it sets up further north and west, there would a wide swath of snow/winter mix. Perhaps, there could be a northwest trend.


The area of rain showers at the end of the boundary is associated with the 3rd low that will be developing on the tail end. At this point, the cold deep air will already be in place.
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At hour 192, the final third low develops on the tail end of the boundary. As of now, this low would strengthen and follow the east coast off shore and give the east coast a snow storm. Again, if there will be that northwest trend, a lot more area's would be in play across the Southeastern US for the chance of snow/winter mix. We'll see how everything comes together.
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Since it’s northern stream dominated, this is the kind of setup that I don’t see trending NW and doing any favors for NC. I think a glancing blow of a couple of inches widespread on the state like on the 00z euro is best case for November (with this setup). Moisture will be limited until this thing bombs off the coast and by then N.C. is done. Still, I’ll happily take it in Nov.

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ForsythSnow said:
And it seems to be colder and snowier for other parts too. I see a few members that give flakes to N GA as well or AL. Weird we are talking about snow in November.
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It's certainly possible to get a big dog at this time of the year at least in NC, but they're very rare of course. Ironically, a NINO winter (1968-69) produced a respectable event in central NC on nearly the same days in question.
November 11-12 1968 NC Snowmap.png


Everyone of course remembers this winter for what eventually happened in mid February.
February 15-17 1969 NC Snow map.png
 
BufordWX said:
11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
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2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What is the effect of that for the SE?
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The main impact from a stronger West Pacific MJO event in the longer term (plus contributions from Halong) is a deeper vortex over the N Pacific & more amplified downstream wave train, ultimately teleconnecting to a +PNA & deeper Hudson Bay vortex both of which favor more cold in the SE US.

This is evident in the 48 hr trend in the GEFS:

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_13.png
 
mrdaddyman said:
2 inches of snow in MBY on 11/12?! Even with the Euro's warm bias I don't even believe that, LOL! Maybe the western part of the state. It's hard enough getting an inch of snow in January. The models are trolling really early this year.
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I thought all models had a cold bias!?!

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BufordWX said:
11th is the time period for the winter precipitation in the Carolinas.
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Euro has not backed down the last few runs. In fact, this is a nice increase from the previous runs. Not sure why some are saying it can't happen just because it is in November. The weather is going to do what it's going to do with the factors that we have at that time. It doesn't really care that it's November. Yes, wintry weather does not usually happen here in November, but it's not impossible.

Also, this is the Euro. As long as I have been on these forums folks have said the Euro is the king over the GFS. I know the GFS is supposed to be new and improved now, but the Euro showing this should make folks take notice and at least pay attention to the possibility.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro has not backed down the last few runs. In fact, this is a nice increase from the previous runs. Not sure why some are saying it can't happen just because it is in November. The weather is going to do what it's going to do with the factors that we have at that time. It doesn't really care that it's November. Yes, wintry weather does not happen often in November here, but it's not impossible.

Also, this is the Euro. As long as I have been on these forums folks have said the Euro is the king over the GFS. I know the GFS is supposed to be new and improved now, but the Euro showing this should make folks take notice and at least pay attention to the possibility.
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At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.
 
ForsythSnow said:
At the moment it's just 2 runs and is only worth watching. It's bound to change. For all you know it'll be gone at 12Z. And it happens every winter. Storms way out vanish or get so close only to say "nope!" at the last minute.
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And for all you know it won't be gone the next run. Storms also vanish and then come back at the last minute. Just saying totally discounting it because it's only November is silly, just as much as guaranteeing it's going to happen. Just wait and see, and always better in life to be optimistic than negative about things.
 
Brick Tamland said:
And for all you know it won't be gone the next run. Storms also vanish and then come back at the last minute. Just saying totally discounting it because it's only November is silly, just as much as guaranteeing it's going to happen. Just wait and see, and always better in life to be optimistic than negative about things.
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You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.
 
Rain Cold said:
You are absolutely one of the best straw man makers on any weather forum on the net. He didn't say anywhere anything about totally discounting it. It is November and a week out. Maybe it will snow. But the odds don't favor it. So, viewing the system with a little skepticism is warranted. That's all that is being said. It's a weather analysis thread, not an "I really really wish it would snow" thread.
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Exactly. Probability of something occurring like that is low, but I'm not discounting the chance that it could happen. It's still in a range that could allow it to happen. In my years of watching snow, The amount of storms that have failed to show outnumber the ones that did. With that said, if we have an anomalous cold blast, the odds of a January-like storm would increase if all the stars align. I mean the Euro has me at freezing all day on the 12th I believe. I've never seen temps like that this early, so I have reason to doubt. You can't chase everything with 100% optimism because if you do then that light at the end of the tunnel could just be a train.
 
SD said:
I thought all models had a cold bias!?!

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I know you’re being sarcastic, but the Euro suite has had in recent months a fairly neutral bias and has easily been the most accurate in the extended while the GFS suite has been decidedly cold biased. However, for last week alone, the EPS switched to warm bias while the GEFS was pretty much neutral. We’ll have to see what future biases are.
 
Yayy growing season continues!
3a83146bc4f4116548932a6ddda37efa.jpg


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From Maxar this morning:

“The next 15 days are forecast to total 319.5 GWHDDs, which ranks inside the top-10 coldest for the period dating back to 1950. The forecast is 5.5 GWHDDs colder than the 0z Euro EN, but the 0z GFS EN
is additionally colder than forecast by 14.6 GWHDDs. Friday’s projections for this past weekend were all too cold, but the operational models performed well.”
 
PLEASE READ:

TLDR Section

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. It's awesome to be tracking a wintry threat so early in the season, which hopefully, is a good harbinger of things to come for the winter. It seems like it's been quite a long time since we've had a good old fashioned cold and stormy winter. Hopefully, this winter defies the recent trends, and we get to spend a lot of time together tracking threats that turn out to be actual high-impact events.

As we kick-off the fun season, let's all (me included) try to keep as much banter out of the pattern and storm threads as possible. While some conversation and back and forth is going to happen, let's do our best to keep the discussion relevant to the thread. We don't want to have a policy of strong moderation and a stifling atmosphere. Weather should be fun. It's why we're all here -- to learn, to discuss a hobby that we're all passionate about, and to have fun. But while we do that, let's try to keep on topic.

So, with that in mind, we have two other threads that are appropriate for off topic stuff. Think of the Whamby thread as a place to vent. It is NOT a place to be mean to other posters. Friendly CONSENSUAL picking is fine. But let's use some wisdom and restraint when it comes to putting someone else "in their place". Venting is fine. Being mean is not. Venting is complaining, bittercasting, griping, saying you're never ever going to get rain or snow again, or whatever you want to call it. Whamby thread.

The Banter thread is for other general discussion. Sports. Banter thread. Flowers. Banter thread. Bojangle's. Banter thread. I hate snow. Whamby thread. Models are stupid. Whamby thread. Warm nose. Whamby thread. Why the Phantom Menace sucked so bad. Banter thread. Why Star Trek II is the GOAT. Banter thread. Mad at another poster. PM. (short hop there). Hopefully, that makes sense and provides a good baseline for which to operate against this season.

While, we don't want to overmoderate, if we can't remember to use the threads properly, the following may occur:
  • Moving posts: Posts may get randomly moved with or without explanation. If you have question, please PM the staff.
  • Deleting posts: At the staff's discretion, posts may be deleted, rather than moved. Again, questions? PM the staff.
  • Warning points/Timeout/Banning: Unfortunately, this is also an option. Hopefully, it's self-explanatory and doesn't need to be heard from again.
Summary

Please stay on-topic in the main threads, use the other threads for banter and complaints, and please treat each other with respect, all of which will help keep moderation to a minimum. This is the best weather discussion board for a reason. We have such a great community, and I hope we continue to grow. So, here's to a great and fun winter season!

Rain Cold
 
See how we have a little energy over Oklahoma trying to make magic happen
1572885717616.png

Some moisture gathering in Tx, hmmm maybe this will work
1572885751579.png
Uh oh looking good

1572885775032.png

NS flexing and dreams are crushed but honestly this far out in November I'm not complaining. Lots to work out... heck it's amazing that summer is over and winter is here

1572885893632.png
1572885915497.png
 
I just think we're one month too early to get our hopes up (too much). We've had cold Novembers in the past and yes we've had accumulating snows. But a more realistic expectation is a couple of cold spells (40s for highs 20s for lows) with possibilities of some mixed snow situations, flurries, or sleet showers. The 12z GFS actually looks like a "typical" cold November pattern (and outcome).
 
Webberweather53 said:
HIGH temperatures on the 12z Euro during the heart of the long range cold outbreak. This is still very impressive for the middle of winter, much less mid November.

Parts of north Florida don't even make it out of the 40s.
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The earth has a way of balancing itself out. 100° first part of Oct here. So why not 40° as a high in the middle of November


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Euro gets chilly around 96 and doesn't look back. Even some -NAO thrown in there earlier in the run. That's better than a sharp stick in the eye.
 
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