-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
No help for the wildfires in CA with a pattern like that.
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Does the delay in the Arctic ocean refreeze and early melt out have anything to do with it? By weakening the PV maybe?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
@Webberweather53 @GaWx or anybody else that has access and knowledge to quickly pull records, how often does a cold November lead to a torch of a winter? I know this decade that's been the case. I'm just wondering going way back if a cold November is a curse for winter? I would think overall it wouldn't matter much and we've just had bad luck this decade. I hope as stated above we don't burn up all the fuel early.
pcbjr
Member
More meant the kind of 92 octane that burns and runs a deep breathing V8 on a banked race track ... the tank can only hold so much fuel, and once it's spent ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 1895-2019 Nov to DJF temp anomaly correlation for the SE US climate region is +0.27, not statistically significant or negative, meaning that cold Novembers tend to be associated w/ cold DJFs but this result is not significant whatsoever. Limiting the period to only modern years (like post 1979 for ex), or to ENSO phase, the correlation is still positive but even smaller meaning the idea that cold Novembers = warm DJF is almost certainly not true.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Perhaps, but it's more likely that changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns that are simultaneously also forcing changes in sea ice are responsible.
You have to start to wonder if this ridging in the Pacific is an intraseasonal feature or will will see it in some form through a good part of winter? Its been in play now in the means for at least the last 30 days doesn't mean things can't quickly reverse as we move further into winter but it's interesting.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
ATLwxfan
Member
Holy hell! 18z GFS puts us in the deep freezer next week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Me either which begs the question, does it set up in a favorable position for us this year or do we eventually start dropping crap into the NW and down the west coast?
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Through hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
pcbjr
Member
p13 at 18Z and Larry needs to rent a boat ...Through hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
pcbjr
Member
Could have gotten some single digit lows had we held off til January..maybe even some low 20’s down to Phil..*sigh*
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's definitely a good question. Constructing a SST-based analog...
...I think we're definitely screwed in December. Amazingly, the Dec blowtorch signal actually got stronger when you removed the strong El Ninos from the composite.
Rip.
Fwiw, January in this analog composite was colder than normal, no signal in February, & March was really cold.
I wouldn't be mad if that December analog was right. A half a degree above average is much better than some years.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's not horrible at least. Are there any odds that we could actually go against analogs and be cooler?
Rolling that out january looks manageable. Feb.....yikes
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Nice jump on the meanThrough hr 210 GEFS looks much better. The trough at H5 digs much more compared to 12z.
12z
18z
With that being said, there was also a large increase in snowy solutions across NC, from roughly 2 to 7 (the spotty patches at 12z are snow from the system at 100hrs)
12z
18z
12z
18z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's certainly possible, but I'm afraid with the way subseasonal forcing is lining up, we'll see another surge of Maritime Continent forcing in early-mid December ish which will tilt the odds towards warmth. If we manage to be average or cold, I feel pretty confident that a significant winter storm would come knocking at least in central NC anyways.
The last 4 NINO Decembers that were cold or near average (1997, 2002, 2004, & 2009) produced at least one decent around here in Dec.
Attachments
Webb, more of a winter topic, but wondering what your thoughts are on the +IOD. I’m not as knowledgeable about ULL patterns as you are, but what would It help keep us into the cooler phases in comparison to last year? Or at least help keep out of the Maritime Tropical phases.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The +IOD certainly helps suppress Maritime Continent MJO activity, but recent studies (including: "Sensitivity of MJO propagation to a robust positive Indian Ocean dipole event in the superparameterized CAM") suggest its influence is pretty modest and limited relative to ENSO. This could be attributable to the smaller spatial scale of the IOD SST anomalies, the fact that +SSTAs north of the equator still exist in +IOD (potentially helping to maintain the MJO even w/ -SSTAs near Sumatra), & the IOD peaks at a different time of the year than MJO activity, whereas this isn't true w/ ENSO.
Figure 1 from the linked paper above imo does a pretty good job of summarizing the results of how +IOD will impact MJO activity in the Maritime Continent region. Left hand side are SSTs, the right side shows Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Hovmollers. Red = significant -OLR anomalies (or convection).
Top panel is climatology, next panel down is 2006, then for +IOD, and at the bottom El Nino. Notice that +IOD does suppress convection somewhat in the Maritime Continent but it doesn't appear anywhere near as significant as we see during Nino events. Pay close attention to how the red shading (-OLRa) virtually disappears around 120E longitude in the El Nino composite.
This winter is characteristically a modoki NINO so that will likely help even more than the +IOD in weakening MJO activity across the Maritime Continent, the extent to which this occurs remains to be seen.
Golf7575
Member
Hi Webber. I have a few things to ask if you dont mind. Its kinda a carryover from what ollie said. Ben Noll and Anthony Masiello both think that with the IOD being positive, that should allow the mjo to focus in the 8,1,2 phases more times than not this winter. I know you cant speak for them, but do you agree with that assessment? Also i keep hearing about tropical forcing, SO FAR, being further west around or actually west of the dateline, which is supposed to be favorable for cold as well. What i find interesting is that people keep calling this a modoki elniño already, but the sst's dont support that i didnt think. I dont want to see the 1+2 region warm up too much, because i dont believe that's good. Webber, i am going out on a limb here, but do you think this winter could catch alot of forecasters off guard who think it will be warmer than average? Personally, unless dramatic changes happen, it will be balls to the walls cold most of the time this winter, with only a few breaks here and there.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
Who ever removed my post, I seen that coming lol. Seriously, it would be cool if we had a learning thread for the newbies or even for those who want to enhance there knowledge. People like Webb or Larry and maybe a few more that could answer questions on there vrs in here.
I made one a long time ago but it completely failed
Nice look at the end of the ICON’s run. As Ethan80963 mentioned, It’s shooting for glory.
Wow, that is nice! That is the tail end storm that I've been talking about. We just may have a freak November southern snow storm!
Last edited:
Taking Verbatim of course.
Looking at the 0z ICON at 500mb vort, look at that nice positive tilt trough! This is amazing for this early in the season! 
Good God Almighty.??Well posted above anyways, here it is again. headed for something special
Brad Pan. Said no snow outside the mtns this week or next. Let’s hold his arse accountable he’s not allowed to change his mind!
he's just playing the house odds...
Much more energy to work with this run vs previous run
18z
0z
18z
0z
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
Yeah, more energy for sure. One thing for sure, storm or not the cold is coming
I’m not going to get too exited about these models until they have that ULL in the SW getting caught up with the NS. A solution towards the ICON.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk