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Pattern Nippy November

Ollie Williams said:
sooooo Close. Much better look on the GFS around day 6.
06z
gfs_mslpa_us_26.png

12z
gfs_mslpa_us_25.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png
gfs_z500a_us_26.png
gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
Click to expand...

I’ve been mentioning about this one for a long time and haven’t sleeped on it at all, if it was January or February this would be getting everyone’s attention
 
Ollie Williams said:
sooooo Close. Much better look on the GFS around day 6.
06z
gfs_mslpa_us_26.png

12z
gfs_mslpa_us_25.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png
gfs_z500a_us_26.png
gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
Click to expand...

Soundings don’t matter much around that time, but we get the idea of a leftover artic airmass at lower levels-surface like past events, this is that type of setup that would favor more sleet/freezing rain, that run was close to a solid sleet event DE2577C5-D8EF-4473-9068-FA0C5FE3F8AB.png
 
GFS.....oooohhhhhh GFS....

1572712686758.png

This is absolutely absurd and it's not completely in fantasy land. I have to say that it's probable that it's way off (but we'll see what the Euro has to say close to the same time period).
 
Poimen said:
The GFS has probably been nipping at the Wild Turkey a little early in the season. It could be correct with generally cold pattern but not nearly as cold as advertised.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was crazy what it did to that low pressure
 
The consistency of a strong arctic blast sometime mid month is there. The blast probably won't be as strong like what 12z is suggesting though. The blast of cold air is filters in tremendously fast and catches up with the moisture, it would be very windy behind a front like that.

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This is not in fantasy land and I know gfs can have some drunken issues, but given the consistency gfs has been showing these cold out breaks, I say we have a legit chance of seeing well below average temps and possible storm mixed in. Weather Channel had a discussion this morning about cold outbreak November coming with multiple chances of snows systems.
 
Nov 1st had a departure of -11.8 with 53/36.. you have to go back to April 20th to find a day with a greater negative departure. -14.7. 51/43.
 
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