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Pattern Nippy November

accu35 said:
Well posted above anyways, here it is again. headed for something special
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haha... Dallas doesn't get snow so this run is fake news
 
WxWatch said:
The GFS has been having the tail end storm, it's just being compressed by the suppression of the arctic blast. We all know how this turns out on the GFS, north trend. The 0z ICON has it, the latest CMC has it, just further north. Evidence is there for sure indicating a snow storm between the 11th-14th, and if things keep looking better and better, we seriously could have a snow storm to track within a day or so.
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Dude, I love reading your post lol. You keep my Hopes high
 
The Icon looks very different from the GFS in regards to how it handles that cut off out there. You'd think the GFS is right here at this range and it would need to rejoin the flow as the Icon possibly alludes to at the end of it's run to have much outside strung out messes.
 
WxWatch said:
The 0z GEFS isn't out yet on Tropical Tidbits, but this is from the 18z GEFS. Two highs to the north with a low pressure anomaly along the Gulf coast. This indicates a wedge of cold air, plus the arctic air coming from the northwest...double take! We'll see if the 0z GEFS still has this feature. View attachment 25415
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The good news is that even though models are a day behind, most members manage to put out a snowy solution across NC, light and spotty, but still something. If I were in TN, would get exited.
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FWIW, cmc holds the moisture during this time period
 
Downeastnc said:
No that is 12Z Tues......so that is valid around 6-7am EST Tues morning.....daytime highs that cold that far south are really hard to pull off in Jan or Feb.....much less Nov.
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While my memory is not as good as it used to be ( plus I was young), I moved to W-S in November of 1970 and the high around Thanksgiving was 25 and the low around 12 if I am remembering correctly. Had extreme cold anomalies at Savannah as well.
 
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A lot of suppression going on this morning with the models with the arctic air.


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MichaelJ said:
While my memory is not as good as it used to be ( plus I was young), I moved to W-S in November of 1970 and the high around Thanksgiving was 25 and the low around 12 if I am remembering correctly. Had extreme cold anomalies at Savannah as well.
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What is W-S ?
 
Ollie Williams said:
The good news is that even though models are a day behind, most members manage to put out a snowy solution across NC, light and spotty, but still something. If I were in TN, would get exited.
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Webberweather53 said:
Definitely was an increase in the number of EPS members showing snow in NC over the next 10 days.

Support increased for the day 8 system w/ another disturbance around day 11 (again likely tied to when the wave over the SW US finally comes east).
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Hmmm, is the GFS trying to join the party? This is getting interesting for sure.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hmmm, is the GFS trying to join the party? This is getting interesting for sure.
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The GEFS is also trying to hint at something around day 10-11 w/ snow initially breaking out near San Antonio, but we're extremely far out & a lot can happen between now & then plus the GEFS isn't exactly dispersive.

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Not necessarily winter related but holy crap Halong is an absolute monster in the West Pac. Satellite intensity estimates nearly support a 200 mph cane.
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This monster typhoon will be a significant player in our weather pattern next week & could affect our chances of wintry weather beyond day 7 (if a storm actually materializes). I hope you like a +PNA.

 
The ICON looks a lot like the storm we got in December 2017, comparison from the Euro model 1.5 days out at H5. Almost identical, however less emphasis on the southern energy this run because of a weaker +PNA. However, I think as Webb mentioned on twitter, because of the recurving typhoon, our +PNA should strengthen even more in the short term, if models haven't spotted this yet.
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Ollie Williams said:
The ICON looks a lot like the storm we got in December 2017, comparison from the Euro model 1.5 days out at H5. Almost identical, however less emphasis on the southern energy this run because of a stronger +PNA. however, I think as Webb mentioned on twitter, because of the recurving typhoon, our +PNA should strengthen even more in the short term, if models haven't spotted this yet.
View attachment 25436View attachment 25438
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Yeah not far, western ridge was pretty tall there, this run of the gfs actually trended to a little bit stronger ridge out west
 
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