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Pattern Nippy November

Just caught myself up on the Euro. It's long range but the highs it has for the 13th are absurd. If it were to come to fruition its like highs that you'll see at times during cold outbreaks in January. o_O

Also grateful that Pivotal has free Euro maps for "now". I've had a source that I've used at times when I've found necessary but the maps there are even better.
 
'2019-11-01 53 36
2019-11-02 62 32
2019-11-03 61 34'

First 3 days of Nov... The predicted lows by the NWS were spot on, but the highs went a few degrees higher than predicted. Wonder why?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're following the tendency of the last several winters to script thus far w/ a warm early-mid fall then the bottom falls out in November, if we somehow manage to crank out a cold December, consider me intrigued.
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Any early signs of how December might actually turn out for us?
 
Is it possible the models lost the winter storm jackpot idea at this time range like they sometimes do only to bring it back with marginal temps (Warmer but more snow for a select few)
 
SETNwx said:
'2019-11-01 53 36
2019-11-02 62 32
2019-11-03 61 34'

First 3 days of Nov... The predicted lows by the NWS were spot on, but the highs went a few degrees higher than predicted. Wonder why?
Click to expand...


Pretty common this time of year to have low and high temp forecasts bust. Clouds and wind play a massive role especially during cooling and heating. It's not as big a deal during summer when the sun angle is higher and stronger, but now with the sun angle so low small things like clouds and 5-10mph winds can keep you significantly warmer or cooer that forecasts. Basically temps are more sensitive to outside forces during low solar angle than high solar angle.


Here in this graph for my town you can see we are approaching the lowest angle of our year! I.E. the sun will be weakest now through beginning of February.

14917352635.png
 
Obviously it takes cold air to elevate the winter weather chances. We will have it. I’m watching the tail end, as the cold leaves I wouldn’t rule out a wintry setup for the mtns hills and maybe NC va border
 
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if November ends up cooler than December for many. Below normal temperatures have been much easier to come by in the SE US in November than December in recent years, and the model guidance suggests that will likely be the case once again this year.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Pretty common this time of year to have low and high temp forecasts bust. Clouds and wind play a massive role especially during cooling and heating. It's not as big a deal during summer when the sun angle is higher and stronger, but now with the sun angle so low small things like clouds and 5-10mph winds can keep you significantly warmer or cooer that forecasts. Basically temps are more sensitive to outside forces during low solar angle than high solar angle.


Here in this graph for my town you can see we are approaching the lowest angle of our year! I.E. the sun will be weakest now through beginning of February.

View attachment 25367
Click to expand...
great answer! wasn't expecting that..
 
CADEffect said:
If you like winter storms take a look at the Canadian lol.
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I don’t see anything. In fact, it’s been consistently not showing snow which is weird when gfs/euro were.
 
Give
500h_anom.conus.png
 
Cold and dry! Just like I like it!74AFF18E-32DA-4278-8A52-8A231077BA8A.png
 
One would think if the interior north-East can build up and keep their snow pack...it’s just a waiting game for a CAD event. Maybe an early icing?
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Euro Control has a large winter storm around hr 300. beautiful ULL spins around coastal NC
1573992000-ID3LV8mqwvM.png
1573948800-oa953RFUjMg.png
1573884000-N6RmUcYbZsc.png
Click to expand...
Note that the Euro does have snow across NC this run, the energy, however, doesn't dig as much, leading to precip being lighter.
12z
1573732800-vsEYTOUwkok.png

00z
1573689600-EhRz5O1piwE.png
 
FallsLake said:
^^You know I just posted about it being too early to get hopes up, but man the euro is cold at day 8/9. Then as Webber showed, there's a system moving into the SE at day 10. Who knows, just maybe....
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As long as the Euro continues to show something, there's a chance. Can't recall the Euro showing something like this in November before.
 
FallsLake said:
^^You know I just posted about it being too early to get hopes up, but man the euro is cold at day 8/9. Then as Webber showed, there's a system moving into the SE at day 10. Who knows, just maybe....
Click to expand...


Hey had an early December storm drop 9 to 10” at my house two years ago. Why not in November?

It may not happen, but that pattern above is pretty much what everyone was saying should have happened last year. What is a year between friends.
 
Yes the above pattern is showing up in November... yeah yeah yeah it’s “early” ... I say if the pattern is showing up and we’re in November we can definitely get cold air intruding in and everything I’ve seen is showing major cold coming ... that’s the biggest thing we usually have a problem with getting with storms.. be great full we are seeing winter storm chances in November one of these are bound to hit ?
 
Here's the 12z EPS 15 day snowfall matrix for Greensboro, NC. Still about 15-20% of members showing something around day 8-9 with a couple members biting just beyond day 10, likely as that southern stream wave over the SW US finally crawls out from underneath the western US ridge & into the shredder awaiting it over SE Canada & the Lakes.

Definitely novelties at this juncture but I certainly don't recall many (if any) instances of having even a glimmer of hope for token flakes this early in the season.

download (88).png
 
Arcc said:
Hey had an early December storm drop 9 to 10” at my house two years ago. Why not in November?
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I would usually say one month difference is huge this time of year. By the time you move into December, there's more cold available to the north, highs are stronger, the overall pattern has shifted farther south, etc.. But, the euro is forcing the discussion (of maybe) with what it shows in the extended.
 
Arcc said:
Hey had an early December storm drop 9 to 10” at my house two years ago. Why not in November?

It may not happen, but that pattern above is pretty much what everyone was saying should have happened last year. What is a year between friends.
Click to expand...
I keep saying there’s not much difference in mid November and early December. Just give me a Dec 2002 ice storm redux, and I’m good for winter! It was amazing
 
The seasonal models from a few weeks ago never pick the current operational inputs for the next two weeks. I think we should always take seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt. Comparing this time last year and if verified we would be close to N/BN mid November


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Ollie Williams said:
Well, we have the Euro Weekly Control on board.
1573689600-04kHNk6jsn0.png
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To see such a model coming on board is surprising. These euro temps are insane too. We have a heavy surplus of warmth to balance out, so it's definitely possible after months and months and even years of above average that we go below for once.
 
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