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Pattern Nippy November

Just replayed the GFS looking purely at temp anomalies and from Friday afternoon this week through Friday afternoon next week it's a solid stretch of it mostly being average to below average, with several days of it being solidly below normal in most of the southeast. So, 7 days of it mostly being below normal.
 
WxWatch said:
I think it's most likely going to be a frontal system cause the low rides along the boundary. The 12z CMC has the idea. So, I'm thinking it's going to be overrunning, swath of snow, more sleet/ice. Edit: Depending on how fast the deeper cold air moves in. If the deeper colder air moves in while there is moisture, of course there would be more snow.

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Yeah, gefs supports what you just mentioned by a lot, overrunning 06F4D628-0584-419C-BACD-257D407E09D0.jpeg
 
Ukie looks better at H5
00z
500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr144.png

12z
500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr144.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My thoughts exactly. I mean if that cold air hasn’t spilled in prior then we know how this story ends for our backyard
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I'm thinking the cold will continue to push southeast as the moisture rides along the boundary. If the cold is in place prior, there most likely won't be any moisture/storm system due to the very dry air and suppression.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Than the gefs once it’s into NC,Some show heavy snow, but it’s hard for cold air to make it past those mountains, snow making it over the mountains like that is suspectView attachment 25445
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Oh the classic Ana front ... I think what some ensemble members may be picking up is a slowing down of that front after it passes the southeast and it kind of becomes stationary while waves begin wrapping or riding up that front ... gives the cold air enough time to make it here while the precip then overlaps ... but these types of storms are hit or miss... cold air comes in too fast then that front moves farther away and are chances for snow will drop .. slows down a bit and stalls means a very fun set up but rare
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Oh the classic Ana front ... I think what some ensemble members may be picking up is a slowing down of that front after it passes the southeast and it kind of becomes stationary while waves begin wrapping or riding up that front ... gives the cold air enough time to make it here while the precip then overlaps ... but these types of storms are hit or miss... cold air comes in too fast then that front moves farther away and are chances for snow will drop .. slows down a bit and stalls means a very fun set up but rare
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Ike the great poster JH said awhile ago: if the cold ain’t already over the mountains, it’s rain here! 100% of the time! ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Than the gefs once it’s into NC,Some show heavy snow, but it’s hard for cold air to make it past those mountains, snow making it over the mountains like that is suspectView attachment 25445
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The deep cold may make it's way east of the mountains in time for some snow. P-type is all going to depend on (of course) timing of deeper cold air and temp profiles.

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Oh the classic Ana front ... I think what some ensemble members may be picking up is a slowing down of that front after it passes the southeast and it kind of becomes stationary while waves begin wrapping or riding up that front ... gives the cold air enough time to make it here while the precip then overlaps ... but these types of storms are hit or miss... cold air comes in too fast then that front moves farther away and are chances for snow will drop .. slows down a bit and stalls means a very fun set up but rare
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Yeah that’s what some of them do, a few of them even develop another coastal that provides snow that way, and it almost appears on the few ensembles member that the trof on some of them try to go negative tilt, and slows down the front, allowing colder air to spill in while precipitation is still happening, how interesting
 
Tarheel1 said:
So GFS just squashed it at 12z? If I am looking correctly, precip dies over TX?
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Yea, it’s suppression so far has been terrible, for example the one that’s coming up Friday, it was showing that being suppressed by itself and providing NC with a winter storm, lol
 
It wouldn’t suprise me if the GFS shows a crazy winter storm along the I-85 corridor as it will prolly correct northwest over time, so if it shows that don’t get excited, haha
 
Fv3 with a suppressed storm in still long-ish range. Decent ensemble support. Other models also all over the potential.

sounds like a typical threat for us! Hopefully we get the NW trend but not too much! Euro will be interesting to watch here in a few minutes
 
SoutheastRidge said:
There was a big southern snow on Nov 2-3, 1966 that produced a large swath of 5-10" in TN and KY. I think AL may have received some snow as well.
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Trace for CHA and Knoxville. Not much of a storm for East Tn. 7.2 in Nashville and 4 inches in Huntsville Ala though. Odd storm, because when Huntsville gets snow, Chattanooga almost always gets some too.
 
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If we are going to see something with this potential, I rather have slow NW trend up to the event. I've seen many storm in past history that either went to much of a NW or had alot of us smiling. Hard to believe we may be tracking a legit storm in the near short term future.
 
I would look for the infamous NW trend to set in pretty soon, possibly the 18Z or surely by the 00Z. DC north should get some snow out of this, especially interior NY and NE
 
Might be one for the Mid Atlantic to watch based off this:

1572979179698.png

Did see on the 500 mb maps that the shortwave was stronger.
 
Still very far out. We won’t see models really settle into a single scenario until 120hrs out. Euro changed significantly from 00z to 12z which means it could change that much again at 00z tonight.


It’s November haha at least we have something to track.
 
Euro was actually way better this run at H5, stronger shortwave in the SW, northern stream energy formed a event for the MA, but the northern stream and that shortwave in the SW/Mexico never really interacted, but this was a trend towards other models, slowing down the NS and beefing up the shortwave in the SW/Mexico, ridging in the west looks all weird tho E175BAA5-8597-46DC-879B-9063B37E3A4C.gif
 
Honestly based off what I'm seeing, if the energy can get itself sorted out and it doesn't trend northwest, I can see an overrunning event in the upper south.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro was actually way better this run at H5, stronger shortwave in the SW, northern stream energy formed a event for the MA, but the northern stream and that shortwave in the SW/Mexico never really interacted, but this was a trend towards other models, slowing down the NS and beefing up the shortwave in the SW/Mexico, ridging in the west looks all weird tho View attachment 25449
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Yeah our precip will come from that Shortwave. Need it to continue to speed up and get pulled into the northern stream. Need to see a lot of speeding up though. Idk if we will see that much.
 
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