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Pattern Nippy November

Interestingly enough the 00z Euro look much better than the 12z run with less interaction with the NS. Looking a bit closer to the GFS.
Not saying anything is going to happen. I’m just making notes.
Edit: It looks good until a certain point. Much better at 00z we just need to slow down the SS or speed up the NS.
 
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The 6z GFS refuses to back off. Normally, it'd be easy to discount this solution, but given it's actually inside day 5-6 and there's at least been some consistency, plus the fv3 absolutely nailed the Dec 8-9 storm when no other modeling showed it (then preceded to suck the rest of the winter), maybe there's something to this.

I'm ready for my cold rain
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 6z GFS refuses to back off. Normally, it'd be easy to discount this solution, but given it's actually inside day 5-6 and there's at least been some consistency, plus the fv3 absolutely nailed the Dec 8-9 storm when no other modeling showed it (then preceded to suck the rest of the winter), maybe there's something to this.

I'm ready for my cold rain
View attachment 25265
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Of course we have to be pessimistic, but things like this have happened in November. All we need is the cold and moisture. Looking at the 6z GFS the cold air is available, but it has to feed in (during the event) from the north (as CAD). Dew points get into the teens in north VA and into the 20s in N. NC. From past storms, we would really like to see the lower dew points feed in earlier to get a good storm. As is, I would hope (at best) for a mixed event with maybe some accumulations of snow/ice on car tops. **if this setup occurs.
 
Gonna be some prolific Lake Effect snow totals out of this pattern. I so want to go on a road trip, lol


gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png


ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png
gem-ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png
 
From RAH:
The next significant system is expected to move into and across the area late week. While medium range models have trended overall wetter with the system, timing and strength differences of both a southern stream wave and northern stream wave continue to make the forecast late week low confidence. For now will go with chance pops late week, with temps well below normal by Friday. Dry conditions are expected to return by Saturday, though some of the coldest air of the fall is expected to move into the area by next weekend. Low temps by Saturday morning may fall into the 20s in spots, with generally freezing temps expected areawide.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 6z GFS refuses to back off. Normally, it'd be easy to discount this solution, but given it's actually inside day 5-6 and there's at least been some consistency, plus the fv3 absolutely nailed the Dec 8-9 storm when no other modeling showed it (then preceded to suck the rest of the winter), maybe there's something to this.

I'm ready for my cold rain
View attachment 25265
Click to expand...
Got to be legit. Look at SE Wake lol
 
Biggest “issue” as always is HP strength. The HP isn’t very strong to begin with and it is weakening rapidly throughout the storm. CAD signal is very marginal. Given the FV3 has a known cold bias this marginal setup is very very iffy on it.

really need to see the gfs beef up this HP substantially.

B42F96D5-B028-4BA6-B062-E5745D8C72C8.gif

So our coldest model showing a CAD this weak is not a super confident sign. It’s totally possible! But fv3 again on an island all alone.
18E6C8ED-960A-4BF7-81FF-5B2BE1376396.png
 
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