Such a terrible setup for SC. I can’t stress that enough. It’s early November and I’m already having Deja Vu. Or maybe that’s just the PTSD.
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Clem282340
Member
For Nc and no where else looks like it left out sc
I forgot to attach the ZR image, in that case, it would be quite an event for everybody but SC and most of GA
Clem282340
Member
Seems like sc gets left out the last couple of years
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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So gfs went from suppression to blockbuster NC storm in about 3 runs! Best model ever!
It will continue to trend north on incoming runs to look more like Euro/Icon. Here we go get away Look at that orange BLOB sneaking back in??
If it’s not the SER it’s the WAR.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As much as we talk about how the GFS has a cold bias in the longer term, the parent sfc high that enters the upper midwest around day 5-6 has actually been getting significantly stronger on the GFS (green contour = statistically significant trend at the 99% conf. level)
This makes more sense if you also look at the z500 trend which shows a deepening trough over the upper midwest but also take note of the larger SE US ridge.
The deeper upper midwest trough = lower heights & thus colder air aloft >>> air sinks & sfc pressures rise.
This makes more sense if you also look at the z500 trend which shows a deepening trough over the upper midwest but also take note of the larger SE US ridge.
The deeper upper midwest trough = lower heights & thus colder air aloft >>> air sinks & sfc pressures rise.
I feel like everything wintery forming along that arctic boundary as it swings through is completely anafrontal stuff aka not real. Where will the low pop is the real question. If last year taught us anything it was that a strong cold push can cause that thing to bloom too late
BufordWX
Member
The ICON has it absolutely frigid at the end of its run lol.
I thought the ICON had a warm bias.
Only 5 Nov days have been recorded in CHA since 1879 with a low below 15. That's getting into goofball extreme land....
BufordWX
Member
Canada’s trying to bring the goods.
Yep that’ll work
Canadian making an attempt at some overrunning after that first system middle of next week
LovingGulfLows
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Big sleet/ice storm for much of N GA. I really have a hard time believing we have a big ice storm this early in the season.
Chattownsnow
Member
There’s something wrong with this map. Where’s the GL low?
LovingGulfLows
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Yeah CMC just has a ton of WAA from the moist SW flow. Floods the mid levels with warmer air which results in a lot of ice and sleet.
Jeremy Camp
Member
A repeat of February 2005 when NGA saw that first Freezing Rain & Sleet event.
FWIW the GEFS look much worse, even though there is much mote moisture like the GFS. Temps are warmer due to the hp begin further west.
accu35
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Lots to work out
Brent
Member
Euro is dry here not great
dry for everyone at 168
dry for everyone at 168
I
IF this were to actually occur, it would beat the earliest Carolina/GA ice or sleetstorm on record since at least 1950 by about 9 days (see 1971).
IF this were to actually occur, it would beat the earliest Carolina/GA ice or sleetstorm on record since at least 1950 by about 9 days (see 1971).
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Snap out of it man!! The RGEM = DGEX
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Just go with the warmest solution, and least snowy models, just like tv Mets, and you’ll be right 98% and disappointment, will be almost non existent! It really helps!
mob the models, the Euro coming N, and the GFS is coming N, that’s not good at all!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I think the NAVGEM is on our side, so there’s that! So NAVGEM/GGEM vs Euro/GFS! Seems like a fair fight!? If you extrapolate the next 2-3 days on this, it’s ? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm really not sure why everyone is having a panic attack, this was by far & away the most impressive EPS run yet.
The 6z GFS still shows the potential. In this scenario, north central NC sees a big ice storm and point north snow. Devil is in the details, whereas something is still possible.
Downeastnc
Member
For anyone outside of the mts even just seeing flakes in the air this early would be a major win.....looking at the records for GSO and I did see that Nov 10/11 1968 had 2"on the 10th and 3" on the 11th.....that's a decent thump anytime of the year.
Downeastnc
Member
The GFS keeps MBY below freezing from 06Z Wed till 18Z Fri, that' would be historic......absolutely crushing the min max records by 10-20 degrees.....I will believe it when I see it lol.
I would much rather have the eps on my side .... been slowly and steadily consistent bringing in more members
Congrats on your fantasy ice storm NC
^^That's one thing my area is good at; getting fantasy winter storms. I must get five feet of snow and five inches of ice each year from fantasy model runs.
Jeremy Camp
Member
Yes, impressive by far indeed as we get closer look for that freezing rain to expand further southwest into CLT, GSP and ATL!.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like from what I can tell, 7 or so of those members end up getting flakes into N GA. Not high, but it's something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the maps from both Nov 1968 & 1987 via my website: https://www.webberweather.com/
November 11-12 1968
November 10-12 1987