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Pattern Nippy November

WxWatch said:
Where ever the boundary sets up at is what is going to determine certain things

* If the boundary sets up further south, this will allow the colder deeper air to make it's way southeast. This would mean more snow over the Southeast, if the moisture makes it far enough north.

* If the boundary sets up further north and west (most likely not) this would mean warmer air inland, rainfall east of the mountains (in the Southeast) maybe some back side flurries/snow showers. Snow/sleet/ice, east of the mountains.

For now, I'm going to say that the frontal system will not trend further and further north and west. For one, the front will originally be a strong arctic front, which strong arctic fronts do have that "punch" and they normally make there way pretty far south. Put on top of that, there will be most likely be a strong surface high that will be making it's way southward from Canada that will keep the surface low from coming north and west. Again, it's most likely going to be a frontal system, the surface low will track right along the boundary, the low will not track on it's own, it will track where ever the boundary is.
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This post is all faded. How does that even happen?
 
Tarheel1 said:
You should feel comfortable with this look! It should fit like a good pair of slippers, like 4th year in a row, kind of slippers!
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I wouldn’t worry, looks to only stay around until 2-3 week of January, looks like we will be putting all the money in on a Fab February again.


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WxWatch said:
What do you mean how does that even happen? More to my point, what I'm saying is, the front stalls out, the surface low develops on the tail end of that stalled front. Where ever that front stalls out, will determine how far the deeper colder air will go and where the surface low will track. What I mean by the low won't track on it's own is that, the low will most likely not be a "stand alone" low. It is a low that is associated with a front. Where ever that front sets up at, will give you an idea on where the surface low will track.
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I mean the text of your post is almost white. It's hard to see.

Is anyone else seeing this?
 
GEFS not looking good unless you live is NC, particularly the northern part, isn't bad.
1574013600-fRFZ6keOPrI.png
 
Honestly the on the surface solution for the Euro really doesn't look like it's going to end a lot differently than the GFS. Pretty decent early snow in Tennessee, extending down to extreme N. GA, and really just looks like backside flakes in NC. That's different from freezing drizzle and would be a nice novelty though for sure.

Edit: Well, maybe I was wrong. Looks like 1-3" to me is laid down at the end in NC. But we know how this thing goes...
 
And now when the GFS starts to look worse today compared to last night's run, the Euro comes back looking better versus it's last couple of runs. And the Euro was the one that looked better than the GFS just yesterday, and the one that had the storm before the GFS. Round and round we go.
 
Euro highs for next Wednesday. Morning lows that day get close to 0F in the highest elevations
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Rain Cold said:
All the models go to this shiznit by day 10:

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As long as we don't have 80s in November, I don't think it's a big deal personally. We will have January air around here starting this weekend and lasting for a week. I think you know more than I do that these moderations are going to occur. Highs in the low 70s for November isn't to bad. The cold will be back just in time for our annual winterstorm for the first Dec 7th - 9th range. Lol (cold rainstorm for SC)
 
KyloG said:
Still BN on the EPS and looks to be rather wet. Another week of so we can start to get a glimpse of the December pattern, looking forward to that. How bad can it be...


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I don't really like how the negative anoms over Canada/Arctic join with the one over/near AK. That'll zonal us to death with mild Pac air. But it doesn't mean it has to last long. Hopefully, it will revert back to a pattern similar to what's upcoming.
 
Rain Cold said:
All the models go to this shiznit by day 10:

View attachment 25523
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We don’t live in AK!! We can’t get wall to wall cold for four months straight!? There has to be a reloading period, recharge the cold with deep snowpacks in the Arctic, long nights and rapidly expanding sea ice
 
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