accu35
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- Jan 5, 2017
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I say we have a chance at snow in November just as much as we have a chance in April lol
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
If I were in DC or Philly, I would get excited
The thing is that just about any other model looks like a king when it is compared to the FV3 with regard to cold bias. Heck, the FV3 is even capable of making the CMC look sane. I think the CMC has improved somewhat with the last major modification but I’m not sure yet.
Unfortunately, I think the phrase “fake cold” will be thought of endlessly this winter when looking at the FV3 10+ day forecasts and to a good extent even just within the period of days 6-9. Some of this will be due mainly to too much progression like with what happened 10/30-1.
The last winter I worried about an operational GFS model with this level of cold bias was 2001-2.
Edit: In the meantime, what a glorious weekend of wx in the SE US this weekend! It doesn’t get much better than this, folks. Get out and enjoy it!
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Snowed here last April, lol so now I believe weird things can happen
Sun angle is different now!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The clouds don’t need as much healing in November.
Not until your arse heals.
Golf7575
Member
The thing I've noticed over the years is once it starts warming up on the models, it never changes back. Not sure why they cannot fix the cold bias of the gfs.
Nice wedge down to Savannah!
Golf7575
Member
Ollie, i would say Philadelphia or Albany ny actually. We have a ways to go. It is what it is.If I were in DC or Philly, I would get excited
November to Remember
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. Appears a snow hole developing near DC. Must be the swamp.
What bro ?
pcbjr
Member
Nice warm spot down to Hogtown ... LOL ...
Golf7575
Member
I think we need webber on here explaining what Anthony Masiello is talking about with his Twitter posts lol
Jon
Member
It looks like he’s optimistic about at least a weak PV/PV disruptions in the near term. Also thinks the MJO gets going at a high amplitude so maybe by Dec we can be in Phase 8-1 (and it can actually mean something) for some east coast fireworks. This is assuming because HM doesn’t elaborate much on context, lol
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What happened since yesterday’s total nonsense 18Z FV3 run as of 18Z on 11/12 near Atlanta?
18Z: 29
0Z: 37
6Z: 55
12Z: 65
That same Happy Hour run also has a low of 29 the next day at Orlando! This is going to be a very long winter of watching the FV3.
Fortunately, we’ll always have the King to keep folks grounded.
Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro cooled considerably for 18Z on 11/12 at ATL from a chilly 52 on the 0Z to a downright cold 42 on the 12Z. To compare, the record coldest high there for 11/12 is 39.
This Euro then has a low of 31 at KSAV (vs the record low of 29) and 32 at the abode of @pcbjr on 11/13 (also vs a record low of 29)!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Nobody's talking about the Euro? Hmmm. I'll tell you the GFS clown now has the king as his joker. Snow across NC and the upper south on the 12th.
pcbjr
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
I just have a hard time believing any map after last year. I was lead astray by the GFS and Euro. I do believe someone north of the Deep South will see something.
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