• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

Tarheel1 said:
We don’t live in AK!! We can’t get wall to wall cold for four months straight!? There has to be a reloading period, recharge the cold with deep snowpacks in the Arctic, long nights and rapidly expanding sea ice
Click to expand...
Hopefully. But I want to see features like the Aleutian Low, +PNA, and -AO/-NAO have some staying power, rather than be a 1 or two week anomaly. Right now, any reversions appear to be to a junky pattern. I'd rather have that become the opposite this year. So, I'm looking for some evidence of that, even this early in the season.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs should be banned instead of birdman by how inconsistent it is, some are back to this look, in my opinion a thread should wait until it’s under hour 150View attachment 25527
Click to expand...
Some good members in there. Definitely agree with the thread thing.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hopefully. But I want to see features like the Aleutian Low, +PNA, and -AO/-NAO have some staying power, rather than be a 1 or two week anomaly. Right now, any reversions appear to be to a junky pattern. I'd rather have that become the opposite this year. So, I'm looking for some evidence of that, even this early in the season.
Click to expand...

No pattern is permanent or even close. Nothing really gets "locked in" as the atmosphere is very fluid and is a fluid. Any extreme pattern will almost always revert closer to the mean at some point afterward before possibly reloading. In the meantime, what's not to like about our nearterm wx here in Nov with the prospects of one of the coldest first 3 weeks of Nov on record and even a decent shot at wintry precip in TN/NC. My advice is to enjoy it and not worry about winter. Your worrying isn't going to change what happens in winter, regardless. Enjoy what you already are getting as it is a rarity. This message is really for all of the worriers about winter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Retrogression is probably forthcoming late in the month or early Dec
Click to expand...
Eric, in all seriousness, how long do you think it will last? I know you mentioned about the mjo going into 8,1 and 2 again eventually. When does that connect with the phases you typically see for winter for cold and stormy?
 
The Arctic is still aiming to possibly dip to colder than normal for the first time in the last half of the year since 2014. As it is, it has hit normal for the first time in Oct-Dec since 2015.
But is it about to stop trending colder? I suspect that because model progs have it warming soon and have the AO diving further negative. So, even if it dips to colder than normal, it likely would be shortlived at least for the immediate future.ArcticTempAnom.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Warm to normal! The WAR or SER, will retrograde to the SE, trough sets up in plains or west coast
Click to expand...
Tarheel, i think most want to know how long it could last once it fully takes effect. I hope it dont last too long, but that's me. I believe it should be much colder than last winter, but that's imo obviously lol.
 
Not sure why everyone gets so up in arms about some warm periods here during winter. Not like we can't go from 70s one week to 30s the next. Happens all the time here in winter. And it's only Nov 6 anyway.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Retrogression is probably forthcoming late in the month or early Dec
Click to expand...

I assume by retrogression you mean aleutian/goa ridge return?

I am hoping we are either following a 2002 or 2014 pattern as both led to a BN winter and some similarities with the Nov pattern we are seeing. The Decembers sure were different though but happily take either winter.

2002Pattern.gif2014pattern.gif
 
Sleet City USA said:
Here's snow accums
GEFSMA_prec_snens_384.png
Click to expand...

5 out of 20 look decent for me. I mean, a 25% shot at a winter storm in November is a lot better odds than usual.
 
I guess shorter wavelengths give us our best opportunity for winter weather these days. I would like to turn the table this time, because its rare to get significant winter weather in November. Its happened but not often in the south.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure why everyone gets so up in arms about some warm periods here during winter. Not like we can't go from 70s one week to 30s the next. Happens all the time here in winter. And it's only Nov 6 anyway.
Click to expand...
Good thing nobody is up in arms so far this year. Need to watch how the pattern develops and see if it gives any clues as to whether or not favorable or unfavorable features might have some persistence this winter. It seems like a reasonable thing to do.
 
The Nov cold being modeled could make this one of the coldest Novembers. Based on the EPS we are going to get to mid Nov with some -10F departures really far south. Ensembles show pattern relaxing some but still BN and of course we are talking day 10+ ensembles.


MonthTDeptUS-1.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_10day-3905600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-4337600.png
 
crazy that the GEFS mean looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z run. *Note that these were the best runs we have gotten so far*
Yesterday
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_306.png

Today
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_282.png
 
KyloG said:
I assume by retrogression you mean aleutian/goa ridge return?

I am hoping we are either following a 2002 or 2014 pattern as both led to a BN winter and some similarities with the Nov pattern we are seeing. The Decembers sure were different though but happily take either winter.

View attachment 25529View attachment 25530
Click to expand...
By retrogression I mean a return of the SE US ridge
 
Ollie Williams said:
crazy that the GEFS mean looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z run. *Note that these were the best runs we have gotten so far*
Yesterday
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_306.png

Today
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_282.png
Click to expand...

Yeah, that is almost a carbon copy of yesterday's run. Nice mean for a November storm, too.
 
Golf7575 said:
Tarheel, i think most want to know how long it could last once it fully takes effect. I hope it dont last too long, but that's me. I believe it should be much colder than last winter, but that's imo obviously lol.
Click to expand...
I mean this in all seriousness, for whatever reason, it’s very easy for us to get and stay above normal, for many months in a row in winter and summer as well , but 2-3 day cold snaps are about all we expect anymore, and it’s not just cause we live in the South
 
Tarheel1 said:
I mean this in all seriousness, for whatever reason, it’s very easy for us to get and stay above normal, for many months in a row in winter and summer as well , but 2-3 day cold snaps are about all we expect anymore, and it’s not just cause we live in the South
Click to expand...
I mean living in the south ur always gunnabe warmer there’s no getting around it ... I’m sure if we lived in Montana we wouldn’t be complaining of heat that’s for sure
 
Tarheel1 said:
I mean this in all seriousness, for whatever reason, it’s very easy for us to get and stay above normal, for many months in a row in winter and summer as well , but 2-3 day cold snaps are about all we expect anymore, and it’s not just cause we live in the South
Click to expand...

But this is way more than a 2-3 day cold snap. So all cold lovers should enjoy it and not worry about what follows for goodness sakes..
 
GaWx said:
But this is way more than a 2-3 day cold snap. So all cold lovers should enjoy it and not worry about what follows for goodness sakes..
Click to expand...
I swear we get 2+ weeks of below normal temperatures in NOVEMBER and it’s not enough ?
 
I did some research, like Larry did about cold and warm Novembers for GSO and the subsequent winters and came up with the following:
(data runs from 1903 to 2012)
Warm Novembers-
1909 N,
1921 A
1927 A
1931 MA
1946 N
1948 MA
1985 N
1999 N
2001 A

Cold Novembers-
1937 N
1947 B
1950 B
1951 A
1976 MB
1984 B
1996 N
1997 A

You can readily see there is a definite correlation in the warm Novembers with all of them being either N or above 56% A and 44% N
Also there is a pretty strong correlation in cold Novembers with 50% being B winters and 25% each for N an A
winters. While these are an EXTREMELY small sample size, it is interesting nonetheless
 
Webberweather53 said:
By retrogression I mean a return of the SE US ridge
Click to expand...

Oh it's there. But it's just a displaced WAR right now waiting in the wings to just pounce back on us; toying with our hopes and dreams allowing a tough in the east in November. Then viciously engulfing the SE for all of January through February. Vicious beast that it is...
 
A few words from James Spann from his afternoon weather video...
NEXT WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday night, and that will represent the leading edge of the coldest air so far this season. New model runs are in, the now both global models (the American GFS and the European ECMWF) show a band of moisture ahead of the front, meaning we will need to mention a chance of rain Monday night. Then, on Tuesday, as the cold air rushes into the state, there is some evidence that the rain could briefly change to snow flurries or sleet before the precipitation ends. There is absolutely no skill in forecasting something like this six days in advance, but typically in a setup like this there is no impact from flurries, if we get them. Output from model ensembles suggests little in the way of meaningful frozen precipitation for now.

The big story is the cold air. Temperatures Tuesday could hold in the 30s all day over the northern half of the state, and by Wednesday morning as the sky clears, the low will be near 20. Colder pockets have a great chance of seeing upper teens. FYI… the record low for November 13 at Birmingham is 22 set in 1911… that 108 year old record could very well be in danger.

Temperatures will slowly moderate over the latter half of the week… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
 
Quick look at the 12z EPS looks alright - deeper, better positioned trough and taller ridge out west would seem to let the northern stream piece dig further south and link up with the southern energy.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh144_trend.gif
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guarantee you most people on here would start complaining if there was wall to wall cold for 4 months. Its nice to have a little break from the cold occasionally.
Click to expand...
We'll see how it goes ... no complaining here ... just realistically looking at and commenting (without editorial) on what appears will happen ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
We'll see how it goes ... no complaining here ... just realistically looking at and commenting (without editorial) on what appears will happen ... ;)
Click to expand...
Well for you cold is in the 50s in the winter so i wouldnt expect you to complain lol.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top