• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

Lets see ...

MJO is Ph 6, 7, 8 in the near term ...

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

Here's 6, 7, 8 with November as the middle month ...

combined_image.png

NAO is basically up and down around neutral ...

nao.mrf.gif

EPO goes positive ... PNA goes negative ...

4indices.png

Now this is not a forecast, but just a thought ... it's likely gonna warm up .... but ...

What goes up is gonna go down, and what goes down is gonna go up ... so hold on and enjoy the cool snap ... don't freak and yell "Torch" in a week, and don't buy flip flops for December ... err.. I mean January ...
Phil

:cool:
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guarantee you most people on here would start complaining if there was wall to wall cold for 4 months. Its nice to have a little break from the cold occasionally.
Click to expand...
Well that's not saying much. I'd complain if you hung me with a new rope?? but I'm sure we wont have to worry about complaining about the cold!
 
I see that the Tropical Tidbits "fake news" snowfall accumulation maps have not been fixed yet. I don't care if they include snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, volcanic ash, and whatever else can fall from the sky, they just don't add up.:rolleyes:
 
BufordWX said:
Here you go. Some parts of NC still get a nice snow.View attachment 25537
Click to expand...

GFS increased again. The back and forth continues.


To recap, the Euro had the storm first, then the GFS, then the Euro lessens it, then the GFS does, too, only to come back today to increase the storm again.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brick Tamland said:
GFS increased again. The back and forth continues.


To recap, the Euro had the storm first, then the GFS, then the Euro lessens it, then the GFS does, too, only to come back today to increase the storm again.
Click to expand...
Thanks dude. You're contributions are not fully appreciated by most here.
 
Hard to get sold on much more than a few wet flakes at the end of the event next week. I'd much rather be playing chicken with a marginal air mass on the front end versus playing the waiting game for the cold to arrive.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Hard to get sold on much more than a few wet flakes at the end of the event next week. I'd much rather be playing chicken with a marginal air mass on the front end versus playing the waiting game for the cold to arrive.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Agree with you. Not a big fan of cold air chasing the moisture scenario we have on GFS.

(I'm a meteorologist, btw... happy to verify for the met tag if you want)
 
WxBlue said:
Agree with you. Not a big fan of cold air chasing the moisture scenario we have on GFS.

(I'm a meteorologist, btw... happy to verify for the met tag if you want)
Click to expand...

Are you a met we might be familiar with?
 
WxBlue said:
Agree with you. Not a big fan of cold air chasing the moisture scenario we have on GFS.

(I'm a meteorologist, btw... happy to verify for the met tag if you want)
Click to expand...

And while this may qualify as a trailing wave on a front, they almost never verify either. so I agree and am not very exited either at this point. Hopefully getting more insulation blown in the attic Tuesday just in time:)
 
MRX starting to bite on a bit of snow showers/token flakes Monday night into Tues:

Monday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Looking over models tonight I’ve been thinking that I really don’t think we have seen the final look of how these next couple weeks are going to play out .. there may be room after this huge shot of cold are of a system running into it ... I feel like we just haven’t pinned down the exact evolution of how this pattern will play out
 
On tonight's 0z GFS run, I'm comparing 0z run from Wednesdays run since that run was a good run in my opinion. So far, there are no major changes at 500mb (vort) This means tonight's 0z run should be similar to the 0z run from Wednesday.
 
Looking like a beefy Gfs coming ... looks like more precipitation around with this one.. let’s see how it evolves..
 
WxWatch said:
On tonight's 0z GFS run, I'm comparing 0z run from Wednesdays run since that run was a good run in my opinion. So far, there are no major changes at 500mb (vort) This means tonight's 0z run should be similar to the 0z run from Wednesday.
Click to expand...
Seems to be more precipitation with this one around Kentucky and surrounding areas on this nights run vs last nights ... high pressure dominated more last night ... I think this run could be interesting
 
WxWatch said:
On tonight's 0z GFS run, I'm comparing 0z run from Wednesdays run since that run was a good run in my opinion. So far, there are no major changes at 500mb (vort) This means tonight's 0z run should be similar to the 0z run from Wednesday.
Click to expand...
Gfs low is slower than 18z and even slower than 12z this will keep the wave further south and potentially more wintery precip into the region.
Edit: or not
 
This is one of those situations where who ever gets wintry precip under the deep low, will get crushed
 
If this wasn’t early November I’d be far more interested
853699bc3e6e0bd7fba4f6aa26a48262.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
If this wasn’t early November I’d be far more interested
853699bc3e6e0bd7fba4f6aa26a48262.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I totally agree, but under that deep moisture with a 1008 L in the gulf, if wintry precip fell it would be heavy
 
Last few gefs member suits has been showing a central MS/Al hit.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Gah. That’s cold chasing moisture if I ever saw it.
Click to expand...

Gotta love junky anafrontal setups to get the show rolling for season. Surface temperatures are obviously warm so we'll need a nice thump for anything to stick on the ground. There's some negative omega in the DGZ so maybe the snow rate will get it done for a quick inch or two in this particular set-up?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top