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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
anybody hoping for a zonal flow mid-month? If so, here's your turkey ...
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-an...erlay=jetstream/orthographic=-95.72,49.93,358
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-an...erlay=jetstream/orthographic=-95.72,49.93,358
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim that’s pretty similar to Jan 16-18 2018 but being in early Nov hurts us.
pcbjr
Member
9+ at 18Z ... Larry, You are gonna drive me to drink ...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
10 days out, but the Euro showing this certainly raises some eyebrows.
pcbjr
Member
Looking at the 11th-12th time period (as always, timing may change) I think there will be a series of lows along the boundary. The first low along the boundary would drop snowfall for mostly along the Ohio River towards the Mid-Atlantic and possibly northern sections of North Carolina. A second low to the southwest on the tail end of the boundary develops (or at least tries to on the 18z GFS)
The moisture is associated with the front, but it's also associated with a developing surface low that would ride along the boundary. The moisture would spread east at the same time the deep cold air pushes southeast, which is setting up for the potential of frozen precipitation across portions of the Southeastern US. Perhaps, that is what the 12z Euro and the control is hinting at. Everything would have to come together just right for this to work. Of course, this is based from my thinking by model analyses.
The moisture is associated with the front, but it's also associated with a developing surface low that would ride along the boundary. The moisture would spread east at the same time the deep cold air pushes southeast, which is setting up for the potential of frozen precipitation across portions of the Southeastern US. Perhaps, that is what the 12z Euro and the control is hinting at. Everything would have to come together just right for this to work. Of course, this is based from my thinking by model analyses.
NoSnowATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
30 ... it's always 30 ... just hang on until after Christmas ... Magic 8 Ball is never wrong ...
Seriously, Jan/Feb ...
Is anyone worried that this cold is going to flip just in time for December ? Ive got a feeling that most of us may be wearing shorts for Christmas.
NoSnowATL
Member
I worry everyday starting November 1st until April 1st.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If November turns out to be below normal overall, that doesn't mean that December will be above normal overall. All we know, the pattern may stay in a favorable pattern that favors below normal temps. it could go either way.
pcbjr
Member
Not for 4 months ... unless we're rolling the clock back 10,000 years ... we have 6 weeks or so of hope in a good, normal year ... pray it starts in late December ...
Just going back 2 decades... a colder than normal Nov has led to a fairly cold/snowy winter, at least in Chattanooga. There are a couple of exceptions. And the two 'exceptions' were close to normal temp wise. 09-10, and 10-11.
Edit: forgot to include colder than normal Nov's that led to snowless, warm winters, then compare outcome rates.
Edit: forgot to include colder than normal Nov's that led to snowless, warm winters, then compare outcome rates.
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I don't normally "worry" about future wx unless it is dangerous like a threatening hurricane.