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Pattern Nippy November

Rain Cold said:
Isotherm's winter outlook is now up: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Hint: Mods, delete my post before someone clicks the link and jumps out the window. :(
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This should go in the Winter Discussion forum, I never look in there, therefore not temped to read outlooks and in conclusion I don't get depressed.
 
GFS is still looking good for some winter weather here. Euro not so much. Have to see where they go today before really calling it a trend one way or another after the back and forth and swamping the GFS and Euro have done since Monday.
 
Given the dry cold airmass I believe initial sleet to cold rain is AT MINIMUM on the table for the majority on this board. CMC shows this well into Georgia through the Carolinas. Although if something goes wrong it’s likely limited to mtns/hills. For the end of the run system.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
GFS is still looking good for some winter weather here. Euro not so much. Have to see where they go today before really calling it a trend one way or another after the back and forth and swamping the GFS and Euro have done since Monday.
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Not so much... this is the 06z. Plus I don't know how much "back and forth" there really has been. Both have been showing a marginal event at best.

1573138028659.png
 
That southern stream would even really intrigue me for my purposes if you could just get the darn thing to kick before the warm up starts. Unfortunately it hasn't so I was silently hoping that it'd work out harmoniously for others here.

Instead it's probably a swing and a miss entirely.
 
Can’t like this trend, western ridge weakening and broadening out, that doesn’t help the situation out at all, taller western ridge would help out a lot instead of a broad one E25C8646-8783-46E7-AB54-78DA65085C8C.gif
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS is still looking good for some winter weather here. Euro not so much. Have to see where they go today before really calling it a trend one way or another after the back and forth and swamping the GFS and Euro have done since Monday.
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I think it’s the other way around... Euro is the one that looks ok, see the trend in the GFS I posted earlier, that’s not looking good.


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Gfs/gefs /cmc/icon shows second storm. Maybe to warm but very close to onset frozen, if any faster it could get interesting
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png
That mess needs to push north, lol.
 
Here are the winners this runD0ABFE2D-DFA3-4065-B4CD-33503FA1A8DC.png lol, but anyways I’m skeptical of the gfs and it’s suppression, this is the last storm which it did horribly on15A3937B-66D4-4E4B-84B1-97425A3858D1.gif
 
ForsythSnow said:
And this is why we do t get hooked on a system this early. If you do you'll be disappointed. Its isn't real. Just a mirage that we chase for years and never reach.
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Me myself I don’t really expect it to happen, it’s only November lol, I just enjoy tracking it and using that pattern to compare to any future patterns that look similar
 
Shawn said:
Here we go again. Threat #1 starts to die out, and we continue to look well into the future. It's a never ending cycle, lol.
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Unlike most, I skipped rainstorm 1 and put one egg in a large basket for storm 2 a couple days ago. However, that egg spoiled at 00z and my focus is entirely on the looming warmup aka December.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Or maybe you can just go with the flow and not be so serious about it. These posts feel like they belong in the whamby thread.
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Actually I'd label your post just as much if not more whamby worthy.... TBH if they had of said something like "well looking forward to the upcoming snowy Dec" you would not have had an issue with it.
 
I’m my opinion this thing is over, maybe some flakes in the end of the frontal band, Only good thing I see is the CMC digging and trying to go nuetral, pushing moisture and slowing it into a colder airmass, but it’s by itself and it’s the CMC, not the MVP CMC lol D52C36CE-26C8-46F1-81AE-A822CA0C1FE2.gif84AC2FAA-EC04-4C32-998E-9676C64DFB56.gif
 
Yeah, I don't know what to think now lol. It's looking like the front is going to be mostly a dry front, while the main wave gets suppressed. Now, it's showing the wave pushing northeast once the high pushes off to the east. So, who knows what's really going to unfold at this point. I'm going to keep the speculation at a minimum.

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I honestly think it's been so long since we've had a good old fashioned cold and snowy winter, we've forgotten what a really legitimate winter storm pattern looks like. This upcoming junk looks every bit like what we've been dealing with over the last couple of years.

At least it is going to get anomalously cold for a short time. That's something real to enjoy. Hopefully, the ensuing warm-up won't be one of those 3 yards and a cloud of dust-type of drives that eats all of December's time off the clock.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Something tells me this ain’t the final product. Model runs are all over the place.


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I agree, the 12Z GFS has a dry front, while the 12z Euro does not have a dry front. Using a blend of both models, I'd say a 20-30% chance of light scattered precipitation along the front and who really knows what's going to happen with the suppressed wave at this time.

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