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Pattern Nippy November

From Maxar this morning:

“The next 15 days are forecast to total 319.5 GWHDDs, which ranks inside the top-10 coldest for the period dating back to 1950. The forecast is 5.5 GWHDDs colder than the 0z Euro EN, but the 0z GFS EN
is additionally colder than forecast by 14.6 GWHDDs. Friday’s projections for this past weekend were all too cold, but the operational models performed well.”
 
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TLDR Section

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. It's awesome to be tracking a wintry threat so early in the season, which hopefully, is a good harbinger of things to come for the winter. It seems like it's been quite a long time since we've had a good old fashioned cold and stormy winter. Hopefully, this winter defies the recent trends, and we get to spend a lot of time together tracking threats that turn out to be actual high-impact events.

As we kick-off the fun season, let's all (me included) try to keep as much banter out of the pattern and storm threads as possible. While some conversation and back and forth is going to happen, let's do our best to keep the discussion relevant to the thread. We don't want to have a policy of strong moderation and a stifling atmosphere. Weather should be fun. It's why we're all here -- to learn, to discuss a hobby that we're all passionate about, and to have fun. But while we do that, let's try to keep on topic.

So, with that in mind, we have two other threads that are appropriate for off topic stuff. Think of the Whamby thread as a place to vent. It is NOT a place to be mean to other posters. Friendly CONSENSUAL picking is fine. But let's use some wisdom and restraint when it comes to putting someone else "in their place". Venting is fine. Being mean is not. Venting is complaining, bittercasting, griping, saying you're never ever going to get rain or snow again, or whatever you want to call it. Whamby thread.

The Banter thread is for other general discussion. Sports. Banter thread. Flowers. Banter thread. Bojangle's. Banter thread. I hate snow. Whamby thread. Models are stupid. Whamby thread. Warm nose. Whamby thread. Why the Phantom Menace sucked so bad. Banter thread. Why Star Trek II is the GOAT. Banter thread. Mad at another poster. PM. (short hop there). Hopefully, that makes sense and provides a good baseline for which to operate against this season.

While, we don't want to overmoderate, if we can't remember to use the threads properly, the following may occur:
  • Moving posts: Posts may get randomly moved with or without explanation. If you have question, please PM the staff.
  • Deleting posts: At the staff's discretion, posts may be deleted, rather than moved. Again, questions? PM the staff.
  • Warning points/Timeout/Banning: Unfortunately, this is also an option. Hopefully, it's self-explanatory and doesn't need to be heard from again.
Summary

Please stay on-topic in the main threads, use the other threads for banter and complaints, and please treat each other with respect, all of which will help keep moderation to a minimum. This is the best weather discussion board for a reason. We have such a great community, and I hope we continue to grow. So, here's to a great and fun winter season!

Rain Cold
 
See how we have a little energy over Oklahoma trying to make magic happen
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Some moisture gathering in Tx, hmmm maybe this will work
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Uh oh looking good

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NS flexing and dreams are crushed but honestly this far out in November I'm not complaining. Lots to work out... heck it's amazing that summer is over and winter is here

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I just think we're one month too early to get our hopes up (too much). We've had cold Novembers in the past and yes we've had accumulating snows. But a more realistic expectation is a couple of cold spells (40s for highs 20s for lows) with possibilities of some mixed snow situations, flurries, or sleet showers. The 12z GFS actually looks like a "typical" cold November pattern (and outcome).
 
God love the 12z euro
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Webberweather53 said:
HIGH temperatures on the 12z Euro during the heart of the long range cold outbreak. This is still very impressive for the middle of winter, much less mid November.

Parts of north Florida don't even make it out of the 40s.
View attachment 25363
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The earth has a way of balancing itself out. 100° first part of Oct here. So why not 40° as a high in the middle of November


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Euro gets chilly around 96 and doesn't look back. Even some -NAO thrown in there earlier in the run. That's better than a sharp stick in the eye.
 
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