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Pattern Nippy November

Definitely don't go to sleep on the 2nd system a little later next week, if we can tweak the timing of the s/w over the SW US just a bit (i.e. faster), we could be staring down the pipe of a big CAD event.

Fresh snow cover near and to our north from the arctic frontal passage on Tuesday is definitely going to help reinforce the sprawling surface high over New England.

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Just came home from work but as Webb was mentioning, I wouldn't go to sleep on this second storm. I believe places in Alabama/Ga and further east can definitely see something out of this. From a onsets to Cads. Second run in a row to have accumulation. If temps were couple I mean a couple degrees down, than this could be big.
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Shawn said:
Euro has a great system and track for many if it weren't for the time of year. #rain
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I agree, but a couple of degrees colder and it will get interesting. As webb said, dont sleep on this one
 
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Lol, 0z gefs looks better than 18z with the members.
 
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
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Seems to me that IF we could the the Thursday event sped up by 12-24 hours, it would have the chance to be a more significant event! The high is already off the coast of NY and will be a stale cold at that point and no matter how strong the high will be, it’s still only November
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seems to me that IF we could the the Thursday event sped up by 12-24 hours, it would have the chance to be a more significant event! The high is already off the coast of NY and will be a stale cold at that point and no matter how strong the high will be, it’s still only November
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We basically need the first event to slow down and the 2nd one to speed up and that would open up the possibility of a big storm. Odds of that happening atm are probably no greater than 5-10% but it's a solution that isn't entirely off the table just yet.
 
BHS1975 said:
Looks like the euro is bombing it it out off the NC coast with no cold air in sight.


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It's a pretty close call verbatim with temps in the upper 30s during the height of the event, a little better timing w/ the preceding arctic outbreak (i.e. faster) could make things interesting in a hurry.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The few very large EPS members that skewed the mean slowed the front down enough to allow the cold air behind it to catch up and the s/w over the SW US ejected faster, leading to a surface low off the SE US coast as the front was passing thru, allowing for more moisture to be thrown back over top a fresh, cold airmass. Pretty unlikely solution atm but I wouldn't say it's zero.
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GEFS kinda improving if we want that scenario to pan out with the shortwave speeding up, still has a lot of work to do and were starting to run lower on time, but anything is possible gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh108_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
??

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Why would we shoot the messenger? That is good news! :) I'd be happy to see a -NAO develop late November and persist into December. There are several things already which seem different from last year, heading into the winter season. Anything different is good, as Phil Conners might say.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS kinda improving if we want that scenario to pan out with the shortwave speeding up, still has a lot of work to do and were starting to run lower on time, but anything is possible View attachment 25627
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These waves tend to take longer to eject than the models foretell. I don't know why that is the case, but it's usually the opposite of what we need. We see it time and again. It's possible it kicks out, but it seems unlikely to me. Would be nice to see the northern stream slow down to match. But it usually speeds up and the cold moves out before the southern wave gets in. I wonder if it's because there is so much more of an energetic flow up north (less so south)?
 
Rain Cold said:
Why would we shoot the messenger? That is good news! :) I'd be happy to see a -NAO develop late November and persist into December. There are several things already which seem different from last year, heading into the winter season. Anything different is good, as Phil Conners might say.
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Virtually all of the large-scale signs are there for a -NAO the last week of the month and I don't expect NWP models to capture one until we're within a week or so of it actually verifying (if one actually transpires). Reason being, -NAOs develop in-situ & are driven by synoptic-scale events that aren't predictable at subseasonal timescales (few-several weeks), although their PDF is certainly influenced by subseasonal variability. The best thing you can do at this juncture is just use the large-scale background conditions to forecast their likelihood.
 
Snownado?

Whoa, this might be a legit "Snowspout".

That's definitely something on my bucket list of fascinating & extremely rare meteorological phenomena I'd like to see in person.

 
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You see, I thought the arctic front was going to stall and then there would be a surface low developing (suppressed wave) on the tail end of the stalled front to allow an overrunning event (frontal system) That's not the case now. The arctic front makes it past FL (the front will not stall.)
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I get the optimism, I do, but how often do we trend colder inside 200 hours turning a would be rainstorm into a board wide thrashing?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I get the optimism, I do, but how often do we trend colder inside 200 hours turning a would be rainstorm into a board wide thrashing?
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Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
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To be fair we are almost on the same path as last year. Last year looked cold that’s why some many forecasted it,maybe it was just a year off.


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