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Pattern Nippy November

Just caught myself up on the Euro. It's long range but the highs it has for the 13th are absurd. If it were to come to fruition its like highs that you'll see at times during cold outbreaks in January. o_O

Also grateful that Pivotal has free Euro maps for "now". I've had a source that I've used at times when I've found necessary but the maps there are even better.
 
'2019-11-01 53 36
2019-11-02 62 32
2019-11-03 61 34'

First 3 days of Nov... The predicted lows by the NWS were spot on, but the highs went a few degrees higher than predicted. Wonder why?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're following the tendency of the last several winters to script thus far w/ a warm early-mid fall then the bottom falls out in November, if we somehow manage to crank out a cold December, consider me intrigued.
Click to expand...
Any early signs of how December might actually turn out for us?
 
Is it possible the models lost the winter storm jackpot idea at this time range like they sometimes do only to bring it back with marginal temps (Warmer but more snow for a select few)
 
SETNwx said:
'2019-11-01 53 36
2019-11-02 62 32
2019-11-03 61 34'

First 3 days of Nov... The predicted lows by the NWS were spot on, but the highs went a few degrees higher than predicted. Wonder why?
Click to expand...


Pretty common this time of year to have low and high temp forecasts bust. Clouds and wind play a massive role especially during cooling and heating. It's not as big a deal during summer when the sun angle is higher and stronger, but now with the sun angle so low small things like clouds and 5-10mph winds can keep you significantly warmer or cooer that forecasts. Basically temps are more sensitive to outside forces during low solar angle than high solar angle.


Here in this graph for my town you can see we are approaching the lowest angle of our year! I.E. the sun will be weakest now through beginning of February.

14917352635.png
 
Obviously it takes cold air to elevate the winter weather chances. We will have it. I’m watching the tail end, as the cold leaves I wouldn’t rule out a wintry setup for the mtns hills and maybe NC va border
 
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if November ends up cooler than December for many. Below normal temperatures have been much easier to come by in the SE US in November than December in recent years, and the model guidance suggests that will likely be the case once again this year.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Pretty common this time of year to have low and high temp forecasts bust. Clouds and wind play a massive role especially during cooling and heating. It's not as big a deal during summer when the sun angle is higher and stronger, but now with the sun angle so low small things like clouds and 5-10mph winds can keep you significantly warmer or cooer that forecasts. Basically temps are more sensitive to outside forces during low solar angle than high solar angle.


Here in this graph for my town you can see we are approaching the lowest angle of our year! I.E. the sun will be weakest now through beginning of February.

View attachment 25367
Click to expand...
great answer! wasn't expecting that..
 
CADEffect said:
If you like winter storms take a look at the Canadian lol.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I don’t see anything. In fact, it’s been consistently not showing snow which is weird when gfs/euro were.
 
Give
500h_anom.conus.png
 
Cold and dry! Just like I like it!74AFF18E-32DA-4278-8A52-8A231077BA8A.png
 
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