I recall that there was a SSW last winter season and nothing really happened in the southeast. Nobody knows how this winter is really going to shape up. One of the best indicators of how it's going to shape up is of course taking a look at the ENSO. For now, it's most likely going to be a neutral ENSO and typically southeast does well with a neutral ENSO.Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
12z gfs looks little better on first storm
Yes but new years more often than not yield the same results. Climatology always wins.Well this year is a new year and it looks like we’re not doing so bad right now ... huge cold outbreak first half of November then a possible -NAO developing as we close November out ... while we await a large stratospheric warning event unfold for the first half of December setting us up for a possible mid winter explosion of excitement .... this year could be different
If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
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Hopefully, we'll keep an active pattern. We need the rain. Maybe we'll get a well-timed high and get some frozen stuff at some point this winter.Any coastal is a good coastal...even if it's a cold rain.
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So eps has one storm and gfs has two? Could this be one of those setups to where gfs doesn't suppress as far south in the gulf and merging into one storm?If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
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The GFS has been progressively speeding up the next wave on Thu/Fri as the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner on successive runs, if this trend continued for a little while longer we could be looking at a completely different, more wintry solution next week.
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Any coastal is a good coastal...even if it's a cold rain.
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Snownado?
Whoa, this might be a legit "Snowspout".
That's definitely something on my bucket list of fascinating & extremely rare meteorological phenomena I'd like to see in person.
Yeah here you can see the GFS lowering pressure at the tail end of the front as more southern energy is interacting.
So close but yet so far. If the EPS at 12z has more members showing the tail end surface low then maybe we have something going on.
Still a low % chance right now.
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Not much difference, but the high in NY is in better position, hanging on a little longer, than was showing at 6zRight or wrong, I’m hugging this baby! Models underestimating the wedge! Somebody post the CMC!View attachment 25640View attachment 25641
Waiting on the 3K NAM to get into extended range before I go full goob. I’m afraid we’re relying heavily on theoretical snow cover and that never turns out quite like we hope. But what do I know. I’m just a middle aged miserNot much difference, but the high in NY is in better position, hanging on a little longer, than was showing at 6z
Moved it over here for you!Don't have vort maps yet, but the 12z GEFS is definitely headed in the right direction w/ our southern stream wave in the SW US.
Moving the wave further N embeds it deeper within the westerlies >>> faster progression.
(oops wrong thread)
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For the first system or second?Moved it over here for you!
First one maybe?For the first system or second?
There only is 1 storm on the CMC and that's the first one. Second one fails to develop until it's practically off the coast, but there's a trend toward the GFS.First one maybe?
There only is 1 storm on the CMC and that's the first one. Second one fails to develop until it's practically off the coast, but there's a trend toward the GFS.
And playing the role of someone who is not able to join us today is metwannabe: "Negative comments belong in the whamby thread, why follow it if you already know what's going to happen?"What a mess. At 102, you can see a very nice, well-placed high pressure migrating through the Plains, eastward toward the E-NE. There is a low pressure developing in Mexico. Where the low actually NEEDS to be is somewhere near the green X in the NE Gulf.
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Skipping ahead to 120, we see the high, still strong enough, has moved ENE. The actual area of low pressure is forming in the SW Gulf. What NEEDS to happen is the high needs to be farther NW and the low needs to be emerging off the SE coast, somewhere near the green X. As is, the high's strength and position would be too suppressive. Unfortunately, there's nothing there to suppress, as it is still way down in the Gulf.
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Jumping out to 162, we see the main high has moved well offshore, leaving behind a stale air mass. A new high, much weaker, is building in, and of course, it's not of sufficient strength for the time of year. The mountains help to delay the arrival of the next (and weaker) shot of cold air. Now, the storm is located in an optimal spot. For rain.
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And finally, at 192, the high in the Plains has strengthened, but has moved too far NE to do any good. It doesn't matter anyway, as the storm is long gone.
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You can see in the above images the suppressive nature of a strong high. They help to illustrate just how narrow the usual window is for us to get snow. A super-strong high, that has built in is usually going to suppress the storm too far south. While a weaker high, located too far north is going to allow a window for a storm, but the cold will be marginal or not nearly cold enough. The mountains help make it difficult. All of this gets magnified in November. We already all kind of know all this, but the images show it pretty well.
High pressure NEEDS to build in just ahead of the storm, which NEEDS to take an optimal track from the NE Gulf to off the SE coast. Rarely does this happen anymore. Highs blast in and blast out. And lows sit in the SW and follow the cold air's movement out. I think a lot of this has to do with the substantial lack of blocking and slowing down of the flow. We can't get an arctic front to stall south of the area anymore, which is what we need. Blocking would be very helpful at holding the window open wider for longer. So, we'll keep waiting.....
By the way, what happened to our super historic cold outbreak. Anybody seen it?
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I see some energy up over Wy/Mt that wasn't there before, implications? What do you make of that if anything?The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.
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