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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Obviously, the dynamics are different but it never ceases to amaze me how strong the local gradients in snowfall are in association w/ lake effect snow bands.
I recall that there was a SSW last winter season and nothing really happened in the southeast. Nobody knows how this winter is really going to shape up. One of the best indicators of how it's going to shape up is of course taking a look at the ENSO. For now, it's most likely going to be a neutral ENSO and typically southeast does well with a neutral ENSO.
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Fountainguy97
Member
Yep more interaction with the southern stream. Beefs up the front and gives more moisture.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Still not exactly what we're looking for, but it's another step in the right direction on the 12z GFS.
If we can get the s/w over Mexico to emerge quick enough in the wake of the big trough over the Lakes, we could have something on our hands after the arctic front passes. Again, this is an entirely different threat of wintry wx than what we've been discussing the last several days.
If we can get the s/w over Mexico to emerge quick enough in the wake of the big trough over the Lakes, we could have something on our hands after the arctic front passes. Again, this is an entirely different threat of wintry wx than what we've been discussing the last several days.
Looking at 12z GFS, the moisture is just gone too soon.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
Yes but new years more often than not yield the same results. Climatology always wins.
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Looks like the cold is gone for me. No more twenties and maybe not even freezing for next week. Trend on all models is to keep ATL and south warmer than to the west and east.
If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
I would like to stress to everyone, this is an extreme member... not a mean.. it's member 32.
Hopefully, we'll keep an active pattern. We need the rain. Maybe we'll get a well-timed high and get some frozen stuff at some point this winter.
In all honesty, this is gravy boat stuff right now anyway. It would be highly unusual (but highly awesome) for one of the extreme ensemble members to verify for once. But probably the best exercise to be undertaken right now is to evaluate key atmospheric features as we begin heading into the winter season and see if we see anything that gives us a reason to be optimistic about how things may turn out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS has been progressively speeding up the next wave on Thu/Fri as the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner on successive runs, if this trend continued for a little while longer we could be looking at a completely different, more wintry solution next week.
accu35
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So eps has one storm and gfs has two? Could this be one of those setups to where gfs doesn't suppress as far south in the gulf and merging into one storm?If you look at the very extreme, snowy solutions on the more recent EPS suites, they all have something in common. The arctic front is a tad sower than forecast, allows the cold air to catch up to the boundary, while enough of the shortwave over the SW US ejects sooner than forecast, allowing for the formation of a surface low near the tail end of the front in the Gulf of Mexico & just off the SE US coast. This surface low then throws moisture back into the fresh air mass over the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, leading to lots of snow & ice in/around the Carolinas.
It's of course a long shot but just because the exact solution seems extreme, I wouldn't completely discount this as a possibility, there's still more than enough time for us to trend towards this solution in the grand scheme of things &/or go completely in the other direction towards nothing at all.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah here you can see the GFS lowering pressure at the tail end of the front as more southern energy is interacting.
So close but yet so far. If the EPS at 12z has more members showing the tail end surface low then maybe we have something going on.
Still a low % chance right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's pretty close in parts of the west-central piedmont, we need this surface low to come about a day and some change sooner to maximize our chances for snow/ice. Still within the margin of error at this point.
That would be a way to go. Enjoying the heavy snow, hear the wind pick up and get nailed in the head by a two by four.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The number of 0z EPS members showing snow in Charlotte w/ this coastal low after the arctic front is roughly the same as those depicting snow/ice during the front's passage.
I wouldn't even consider this a minority solution at this point even though we've yet to see it on the operational models.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Right or wrong, I’m hugging this baby! Models underestimating the wedge! Somebody post the CMC!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Not much difference, but the high in NY is in better position, hanging on a little longer, than was showing at 6z
If the ridge out west over British Columbia can be delayed or stall at best then that will allow the Ridge over the Great Lakes to remain longer and possibility it could regenerate further south. A lot of ifs right now. Definitely bares watching. We can notice the Euro later how it handles this Ridge.
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What a mess. At 102, you can see a very nice, well-placed high pressure migrating through the Plains, eastward toward the E-NE. There is a low pressure developing in Mexico. Where the low actually NEEDS to be is somewhere near the green X in the NE Gulf.
Skipping ahead to 120, we see the high, still strong enough, has moved ENE. The actual area of low pressure is forming in the SW Gulf. What NEEDS to happen is the high needs to be farther NW and the low needs to be emerging off the SE coast, somewhere near the green X. As is, the high's strength and position would be too suppressive. Unfortunately, there's nothing there to suppress, as it is still way down in the Gulf.
Jumping out to 162, we see the main high has moved well offshore, leaving behind a stale air mass. A new high, much weaker, is building in, and of course, it's not of sufficient strength for the time of year. The mountains help to delay the arrival of the next (and weaker) shot of cold air. Now, the storm is located in an optimal spot. For rain.
And finally, at 192, the high in the Plains has strengthened, but has moved too far NE to do any good. It doesn't matter anyway, as the storm is long gone.
You can see in the above images the suppressive nature of a strong high. They help to illustrate just how narrow the usual window is for us to get snow. A super-strong high, that has built in is usually going to suppress the storm too far south. While a weaker high, located too far north is going to allow a window for a storm, but the cold will be marginal or not nearly cold enough. The mountains help make it difficult. All of this gets magnified in November. We already all kind of know all this, but the images show it pretty well.
High pressure NEEDS to build in just ahead of the storm, which NEEDS to take an optimal track from the NE Gulf to off the SE coast. Rarely does this happen anymore. Highs blast in and blast out. And lows sit in the SW and follow the cold air's movement out. I think a lot of this has to do with the substantial lack of blocking and slowing down of the flow. We can't get an arctic front to stall south of the area anymore, which is what we need. Blocking would be very helpful at holding the window open wider for longer. So, we'll keep waiting.....
By the way, what happened to our super historic cold outbreak. Anybody seen it?
Skipping ahead to 120, we see the high, still strong enough, has moved ENE. The actual area of low pressure is forming in the SW Gulf. What NEEDS to happen is the high needs to be farther NW and the low needs to be emerging off the SE coast, somewhere near the green X. As is, the high's strength and position would be too suppressive. Unfortunately, there's nothing there to suppress, as it is still way down in the Gulf.
Jumping out to 162, we see the main high has moved well offshore, leaving behind a stale air mass. A new high, much weaker, is building in, and of course, it's not of sufficient strength for the time of year. The mountains help to delay the arrival of the next (and weaker) shot of cold air. Now, the storm is located in an optimal spot. For rain.
And finally, at 192, the high in the Plains has strengthened, but has moved too far NE to do any good. It doesn't matter anyway, as the storm is long gone.
You can see in the above images the suppressive nature of a strong high. They help to illustrate just how narrow the usual window is for us to get snow. A super-strong high, that has built in is usually going to suppress the storm too far south. While a weaker high, located too far north is going to allow a window for a storm, but the cold will be marginal or not nearly cold enough. The mountains help make it difficult. All of this gets magnified in November. We already all kind of know all this, but the images show it pretty well.
High pressure NEEDS to build in just ahead of the storm, which NEEDS to take an optimal track from the NE Gulf to off the SE coast. Rarely does this happen anymore. Highs blast in and blast out. And lows sit in the SW and follow the cold air's movement out. I think a lot of this has to do with the substantial lack of blocking and slowing down of the flow. We can't get an arctic front to stall south of the area anymore, which is what we need. Blocking would be very helpful at holding the window open wider for longer. So, we'll keep waiting.....
By the way, what happened to our super historic cold outbreak. Anybody seen it?
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Waiting on the 3K NAM to get into extended range before I go full goob. I’m afraid we’re relying heavily on theoretical snow cover and that never turns out quite like we hope. But what do I know. I’m just a middle aged miser
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't have vort maps yet, but the 12z GEFS is definitely headed in the right direction w/ our southern stream wave in the SW US.
Moving the wave further N embeds it deeper within the westerlies >>> faster progression.
(oops wrong thread)
Moving the wave further N embeds it deeper within the westerlies >>> faster progression.
(oops wrong thread)
Moved it over here for you!
accu35
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For the first system or second?
First one maybe?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
There only is 1 storm on the CMC and that's the first one. Second one fails to develop until it's practically off the coast, but there's a trend toward the GFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The CMC looks way out in left field w/ the southern stream s/w compared to other guidance, digging it south of the Baja peninsula, whereas the GEFS & EPS are a few hundred miles further north, closer to the US/Mexico border.
And playing the role of someone who is not able to join us today is metwannabe: "Negative comments belong in the whamby thread, why follow it if you already know what's going to happen?"
Uh Oh, look what the 12z Euro is doing!
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Quite the improvement with the 2nd system on the Euro.... dang
If the high would just slow down a tad and precip (energy) speed up just a tad could at least see some frozen stuff in the favored areas... nice dry arctic air mass in place heck who knows might see an ip or two yet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z Euro improvements aren't surprising given that the trough over New England & Atlantic Canada is stronger and our s/w over the SW US ejects much faster this run, which again looks more like the patterns we saw in the more extreme & wintry 0z EPS solutions last night.
Euro had the low tracking in the gulf then right through the heart of the Carolinas..doubt it but nice to see it flirting with a wintry solution. Still lots of time I guess
I see some energy up over Wy/Mt that wasn't there before, implications? What do you make of that if anything?
edit: is it this second piece of energy that keeps this going for Tn, that's a decent deform band for them